中國第五代領導人即將初露端倪
2007年10月15日10:57
定於週一（10月15日）開幕、週日（10月21日）結束的中國共產黨第十七次全國代表大會，或可產生些領導層人事變動，向世人說明中國正在將權力逐步移交給新一代精英──那些懂經濟、懂商務、比其前任更注重與外部世界聯繫的官員。大會預計會提拔一批更年輕、接受過更廣泛教育的幹部擔任黨的高級領導職務﹐並促進全國各地政府部門也產生類似的轉變。
分析師稱﹐這種變化將促使年輕一代領導人開始在出謀劃策和制定政策過程中發揮更大影響力﹐並有望改變中國政府部門同海外企業打交道的方式﹐儘管這種轉變可能是一個漸進的過程。
中國目前一代的領導人中許多都為60歲以上的工程師出身者﹐他們是在1978年中國結束封閉狀態﹐開始實行對外開放前成長起來的。而新一代領導人多在50多歲﹐學的多是法律或經濟﹐許多人都是在改革開放後的80年代走上工作崗位的。前一代領導人將工作重點主要放在了建設大壩、橋梁和其他基礎設施上﹐這也是他們多具有理工科背景的一種反映。年輕一代領導人也都是堅定的共產黨員﹐不太可能推進激進的政策變革。
目前﹐領導層中的最高職位大多仍將由上一代人擔任﹐這會限制那些年輕官員的影響力。不過﹐中國領導層目前的任務應是完善政治和金融體制﹐使之與高速增長的中國經濟相匹配。
不少新一代領導人都將擔任副職﹐如副省長、副部長﹐或政府及政府下屬研究機構的首席顧問﹐等等。不過﹐他們會逐步開始擔任更高級的職務。美國布魯金斯學會(Brookings Institution)中國問題專家李成在一篇文章中寫道﹐隨著在今後十年左右的時間里權力逐步向下一代人過渡﹐接受過西方教育的中國政治精英可能會發揮更重要的作用。在這批所謂的“第五代”領導人中﹐兩位最重要的人物是現任上海市市委書記習近平和東北工業大省遼寧省省委書記李克強。二人都擁有法律學位﹐預計將在此次大會上躋身政治局常委──本次會議可能要更換一半的政治局常委。這兩人中的一人或許將在2012年胡錦濤的任期結束後接替胡的位置。
中國共產黨全國代表大會每五年舉行一次。此次會議將批准政治局和政治局常委新人選。政治局是中國共產黨最重要的領導機構﹐由二十幾位委員組成﹐每月舉行一次例會。政治局中擁有超級權威的則是目前由八名常委組成的常務委員會。此次大會還將批准一個確定今後五年主要任務的政治報告。
現任黨的總書記胡錦濤提出的推動中國實現更加均衡的發展﹐解決貧富差距擴大和經濟高速發展帶來的不良影響的方針預計會在報告中得到進一步的強調。不過﹐預計胡錦濤不會在本週的會議上指定他的接班人﹐而會繼續採用依靠政治局常委多數意見決策的方式﹐避免出現一言堂的局面。
今後幾個月中﹐各級黨和政府部門中的官員可能都會出現更迭﹐其中包括省部級和地區一級的領導職位。從現實角度看﹐新一代領導人的崛起可能會讓外資企業高管推進項目或是同政府高級官員的接觸變得稍微容易一些﹐因為年輕一代領導人對企業更加瞭解﹐在同外國人打交道方面也更有經驗。同目前大多數高層領導不同的是﹐新一代領導中有些曾在美國或其他國家長期工作或學習過﹐有的甚至長達幾年時間。
由於中國的國際地位不斷提升﹐國際社會也要求中國政府能在國際外交中發揮更積極的作用。近幾週來﹐中國在緬甸問題上一直面臨壓力﹐儘管中國的立場一直是宣稱不干涉別國的國內政治。但分析師們表示﹐隨著越來越多在國外接受過教育的官員走上領導崗位﹐這種立場也將發生變化。布魯金斯學會另一位中國問題專家黃靖稱﹐在第五代領導人開始掌權後﹐中國的對外政策將會更加開放、寬鬆和老練﹐這不僅僅是因為這些領導人具有豐富的國際經驗﹐而且是因為中國已經不可逆轉地融合到了目前的國際體系中﹐這是一種基於全球市場經濟﹐以民主為主導的體系。
取材WSJ Jason Leow
China's Hu calls for peace agreement with Taiwan
BEIJING (AFP) — Chinese President Hu Jintao on Monday called for a peace agreement with long-time rival Taiwan, but insisted independence for the island would never be tolerated.
"We would like to make a solemn appeal," Hu said at the opening of the ruling Communist Party's five-yearly Congress.
"On the basis of the one-China principle, let us discuss a formal end to the state of hostility between the two sides, reach a peace agreement, construct a framework for peaceful development of cross-strait relations and thus usher in a new phase of peaceful development."
Hu's remarks were welcomed by the United States but quickly rebuffed by Taiwan itself, which split with China in 1949 after a civil war and has since ruled itself independently.
Taiwan's cabinet-level Mainland Affairs Council in a statement highlighted Hu's continued emphasis on the 'one-China' principle, which states that island would be incorporated into mainland Chinese rule.
"Instead, we insist that democracy is the basis of peaceful development across the Strait," the statement said.
"Taiwan's sovereignty is owned by the 23 million in Taiwan and its future should be decided by themselves."
Hu's speech did not carry direct references to using force in bringing about Taiwan's reunification with the mainland, as China has done in the past.
In 2005, China's parliament passed an anti-secession law which provided Beijing with the legal framework for retaking the island by force.
However, Hu did warn that Taiwan's "independence forces" were jeopardising cross-strait relations, in an apparent reference to President Chen Shui-bian's plan to hold a referendum on seeking UN membership under the name Taiwan.
"China's sovereignty and territorial integrity brook no division, and any matter in this regard must be decided by the entire Chinese people, including our Taiwan compatriots," he said.
"China will never allow anyone to separate Taiwan from the motherland in any name or by any means."
Tensions have risen across the Taiwan Strait recently amid pro-independence rhetoric by Chen, who last month failed in his latest bid to secure UN membership for the island.
During an Asia-Pacific summit in Sydney last month, Hu told US President George W. Bush that Taiwan's referendum plan had propelled the cross-strait situation into a "possibly dangerous period".
The US late Monday backed China's peace pledge.
"We believe that President Hu's remarks were a step in the right direction on seeking to reinvigorate a cross-strait dialogue," White House spokesman Gordon Johndroe said, noting the moderate tone of the Chinese leader's speech.
However, Hu's move should not be interpreted as a major shift in China's policy, according to Kou Chien-Wen, an Asia-Pacific expert at Taiwan's Chengchi University.
"This is not the first time Hu has called for a cross-strait peace mechanism, and like before, he has based it on the acceptance of the 'one-China principle'," Kou said.
"But Taiwan's ruling party has refused to accept the 'one-China policy' and insists that there are two countries involved, China and Taiwan."
Kou acknowledged that Hu did not repeat the war-like rhetoric.
"But by mentioning the 'one-China principle' shows that he is not renouncing the use of force," Kou said.
During his speech, Hu also appeared to reach out to those in Taiwan who oppose Chen, promising policies beneficial to the island and which would protect the huge investments on the Chinese mainland by Taiwan enterprises.
He also called for a resumption of direct trade, travel and mail links between the two sides.
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