廣告

2009年12月27日 星期日

University Branches in Dubai Are Struggling

University Branches in Dubai Are Struggling

Ryan Carter for The New York Times

The Michigan State University outpost, in a building with other branches, is planning scholarship offering half-price tuition.

By TAMAR LEWIN
Published: December 27, 2009

The collapse of Dubai’s overheated economy has left the outposts of Michigan State University and the Rochester Institute of Technology in the United Arab Emirates struggling to attract enough qualified students to survive.

In the last five years, many American universities have rushed to open branches in the Persian Gulf, attracted by the combination of oil wealth and the area’s strong desire for help in creating a higher-education infrastructure. Education City in Qatar has brought in Carnegie Mellon, Cornell, Georgetown, Northwestern, Texas A&M and Virginia Commonwealth.

Abu Dhabi, one of the seven emirates that make up the U.A.E. and the one that controls most of its oil, is still flourishing. And it is still generous in its support for the most ambitious American educational effort in the area, New York University’s liberal-arts college, which is scheduled to open there next fall with a highly selective class of 100 young students from around the world.

In Dubai, however, the timing for Michigan State and the Rochester Institute of Technology could hardly have been worse. Both started classes in August 2008, just before Dubai’s economy began to crumble. By this month, Dubai’s debt problems were so serious that Dubai World, a government-owned investment company, avoided a bond default only with a $10 billion bailout from Abu Dhabi.

Because most Dubai residents are expatriates, thousands of them left when their jobs disappeared, and the prospective college-student pool in the area has shrunk substantially. “Nobody could have anticipated the global meltdown, which has certainly had a negative effect on our student marketing,” said Brendan Mullan, executive director of Michigan State Dubai.

Michigan State, with only 85 undergraduates, is seeking to raise that figure with a scholarship offering half-price tuition to the first 100 qualified transfer applicants for the semester that starts next month.

“We’ve had close to 200 transfer applications, some from other universities in the U.A.E., but others from India, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Oman,” Dr. Mullan said. “We are not compromising on quality, even if that means it takes us longer to gain traction here. We actually turned down 30 percent of our applicants last fall.”

Dr. Mullan said that while the break-even point for the campus was now expected to be five years, up from the original goal of three years, Michigan State was determined to remain in the Gulf.

“We still believe this is viable and valuable,” he said. “We’re not just going to be a teaching storefront here; we’re going to have significant research capacity, and our commitment to Dubai is unyielding.”

Rochester, which began only with graduate programs, accepted almost 100 students for this academic year. But Mustafa Abushagur, president of the Dubai campus, said it ended up with only about 50, spread among electrical engineering, computer networking, finance, and service and leadership studies. Rochester plans to start an undergraduate program next year, Dr. Abushagur said.

“Our plan for next year is 100 to 120 students,” he said, “which we think we can get, because we’ve studied the market very closely and we believe that as an institution, we can distinguish ourselves in certain programs that are in demand here.”

George Mason, one of the first American universities to open a branch in the United Arab Emirates, closed its Ras al Khaymah temporary campus in May, having never graduated a single student.

While the higher-education projects in Dubai face serious challenges, New York University’s plans in Abu Dhabi are moving ahead smoothly, with Abu Dhabi even going so far as to fly in top high school seniors from around the world for two days of meetings with those at the university.

“We’ve had a worldwide recruiting effort, identifying top candidates at high schools around the world,” said Linda Mills, the N.Y.U. senior vice provost overseeing the Abu Dhabi admissions process.

The cost of attending for a year, with tuition and travel and living expenses, is about $63,000, but Ms. Mills said students would get enough financial aid that no student would have to graduate with debt.

“We looked at the leading universities around the world,” Ms. Mills said, “and what we’re offering is on a par with Swarthmore, which I think offers the most generous financial aid.”

In fact, the head of the new Abu Dhabi campus is Alfred H. Bloom, the former president of Swarthmore, which has need-blind admissions, meets full financial need and, as of last year, replaced the loans in financial-aid packages with larger scholarships.

The admissions timetable has been somewhat different for the Abu Dhabi campus than the Greenwich Village one, with early-decision candidates having until Jan. 15 to accept a spot in the Gulf, and not expected to commit to Abu Dhabi without a visit.

Already, N.Y.U. has had more than 500 early-decision applicants for next year’s inaugural class, and has admitted students from Australia, Brazil, Britain, China, Ethiopia, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Jordan, Morocco, Russia and Taiwan. About 100 have already been flown to Abu Dhabi for a visit.

“Everyone introduced themselves, in English and whatever language they wanted,” Ms. Mills said. “From French to Russian to Arabic to Hungarian, they’d say things like ‘I traveled 30 hours to get here,’ or ‘I’ve never been on a plane before.’ It was kind of a goose-bump moment.”

2009年12月22日 星期二

為什麼我們必須反共抗馬

為什麼我們必須反共抗馬--本周周三23日起停刊數日--版主在某新聞管制之國家

2009年12月20日 星期日

SCHOOLS SEE THE IMPORTANCE OF A GREENER VISION

SCHOOLS SEE THE IMPORTANCE OF A GREENER VISION


When GCube, the insurance services provider, had to cover a claim to replace wind energy equipment last year, it found a way to put the damaged parts to use. GCube donated the turbine to Laramie County Community College in Wyoming. The used but working equipment was valued at $600,000 but the donation was part of a long-term company initiative to give engineering students hands-on eperience of wind energy technology.

The college, could not have afforded to buy the kit itself. Just bringing the 36-tonne unit to campus, installing it and building a catwalk around it so that students could learn how to maintain it, has cost the college more than $100,000 (€68,000, £62,000).

As schools across the US start to build renewable energy programmes, hands-on experience is increasingly sought after. The Obama administration has pledged to pour funds into renewables, with an economic stimulus package that includes $56bn in grants and tax breaks for US clean energy projects over the next 10 years and a budget of $15bn a year to fund renewable energy programmes such as biodiesel, ethanol, solar and wind energy, as well as hybrid vehicles.

In response, schools across the US are looking at ways to prepare students for the industry. Universities and business schools are broadening traditional curriculums to take in issues that arise from the world's attempts to move away from fossil fuels and embrace alternative sources.

Pennsylvania State University does so through courses in its environmental and renewable resource economics department. Stanford University's global climate and energy project works to find solutions to how to supply energy to meet the needs of a growing world population while protecting the environment.

At the Bauer College of Business at the University of Houston, Praveen Kumar, executive director of the Global Energy Management Institute, last year started trying to capitalise on Houston's standing as the world's energy capital with an increasing number of workshops, seminars and courses touching on renewables.

Given all the energy talent in the city, the school is able to pull in speakers and guest lecturers from across the industry. UH is using a partnership with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory to research the commercial viability of pyroil, a biomass-based fuel, to develop a course on the economic aspects of biofuels. It held the country's first graduate course in carbon trading, in co­ordination with the university's law school, given all the legal issues still to be resolved.

Earlier this year, the school offered a course dedicated to working with companies to design renewables-based business plans for its applied finance projects class. “It's been a great experience for all of us,” Prof Kumar says. “We will do it every summer.”'

Next year, UH will move such occasional courses on to the core curriculum, with three or four regularly scheduled courses touching on renewables and carbon markets.

While the US has been moving toward renewables for several years, he explains there is a time lag in higher education. “You want to make sure you have a framework you can give to the students.''

John Butler, academic director in the Energy Management and Innovation Center in the McCombs School of Business at the University of Texas at Austin, says: “To get a new course offered is very hard.” For that reason, the university offers practicums as a way to get around the formality of creating a new course. These project-based courses change topics from year to year and are a good way to get into alternatives.

In addition, the university uses alternative energy companies or issues as examples or case studies in a variety of classes. For example, students in the school's marketing class will be focusing on companies marketing green products.

“It's going to be hard to talk about running a business without talking about energy in general and sustainability specifically,'' Prof Butler adds.

The school offers its MBA students electives in Clean Technology and Energy Finance that incorporate renewables. He expects that at some point, the school will offer a class focused entirely on alternatives.

For the past three years, Kyriacos Zygourakis, professor of chemical and biomolecular engineering at Rice University, has co-taught a course called engineering sustainable communities.

It examines the US's dependence on fossil fuels, whose production will eventually peak, and the effort that is required to scale up renewables to replace them. “Students learn how to systematically analyse these issues,” says Prof Zygourakis.

This year's final project was to see how Rice University could meet its goal to become carbon neutral. “No single solution can provide the answer,” he says. He admits some students are shocked at discovering how hard meeting that goal will be.

“My goal is to make the students understand the complexity of these problems,” adds Prof Zygourakis. “Hopefully they can contribute to the solution.''

去年,当保险服务提供商GCube不得不接受一项替换风能 设备的索赔时,它找到了一种利用坏损设备的方法。GCube把涡轮机捐赠给了怀俄明州的拉勒米县社区学院(Laramie County Community College)。这台仍能工作的旧设备价值60万美元,但此次捐赠只是GCube向工程专业学生提供风能技术实践机会的长期举措的一部分。

拉勒米县社区学院自己无力购买设备。只是将这台36吨重的设备拉进校园,安装起来,并在周围建造步行道以便学生们学习如何维护设备,就花了学院10多万美元。

随着美国各地的学校开始开设可再生能源项目,实践经验变得越来越吃香。奥巴马(Obama)政府承诺要向可再生能源大举投资,经济刺激计划中包括未 来10年为美国清洁能源项目提供560亿美元的拨款和税收减免,并将每年拨出150亿美元的预算,用于为生物柴油、乙醇、太阳能和风能等可再生能源项目和 混合动力车提供资金。

美国各地的院校纷纷予以响应,想方设法让学生为这个行业做好准备。各大学和商学院正拓宽传统课程,将全球从化石燃料转向替代资源过程中出现的问题纳入其中。


宾夕法尼亚州立大学(Pennsylvania State University)这样做,是通过环境和可再生资源经济系的课程。斯坦福大学(Stanford University)的全球气候和能源项目致力于找到解决办法,研究如何在保护环境的同时,供应能满足日益增长的全球人口需求的能源。

在休斯敦大学(University of Houston)的Bauer商学院,全球能源管理学院(Global Energy Management Institute)执行董事普拉文•库玛(Praveen Kumar)去年开始尝试利用休斯敦作为世界能源之都的地位——越来越多涉及可再生能源的工作室、研讨会和课程在这里举办。

鉴于休斯敦能源人才众多,该校有能力从整个行业吸引来演讲人及嘉宾讲师。休斯敦大学正利用与美国国家可再生能源实验室(National Renewable Energy Laboratory)的合作关系,研究基于生物材料的燃料——皮罗伊的商业可行性,以开发一门有关生物燃料经济方面的课程。该校拥有美国首个碳交易研究 生课程。鉴于有众多法律问题有待解决,这个课程是与该校法学院合作开办的。

今年早些时候,休斯敦大学推出了致力于与企业合作的课程,旨在为应用金融项目班设计基于可再生能源的商业计划。“对于我们所有人而言,这都是一次不凡的体验,”库玛教授表示。“我们将在每年夏季都开办这个课程。”

明年,休斯敦大学将把这种临时课程纳入核心课程,将有三、四门定期课程涉及可再生能源和碳市场。

尽管美国多年来一直在朝着可再生能源发展,但库玛解释称,高等教育方面存在时间上的滞后。“你希望确保能给学生提供一个框架。”

得克萨斯大学(University of Texas) McCombs商学院能源管理和创新中心(Energy Management and Innovation Center)学术主管约翰•巴特勒(John Butler)表示:“推出一门新课程难度很大。”因此,该校推出了一些实习课程,以绕过开办新课程的手续。这些基于项目的课程每年都会变换主题,是一种 了解替代能源的好方法。

另外,这所大学把替代能源公司或相关问题作为很多班级的案例或个案研究。例如,该校营销班的学生将关注于营销环保产品的公司。

该校结合可再生能源,面向MBA学生推出了清洁技术和能源金融的选修课。他预期,在未来的某个时刻,该校将会推出一个专门关注替代能源的班级。

过去3年,莱斯大学(Rice University)化学和生物分子工程教授克里阿克斯•扎古拉克斯(Kyriacos Zygourakis)一直在合作教授一门称作工程可再生社区的课程。

这门课程考察了美国对最终产量会停止增长的化石燃料的依赖,以及增加可再生能源以取代化石燃料所需的努力。扎古拉克斯表示:“学生们学习如何系统性地分析这些问题。”


今年的最后一个项目是考察莱斯大学如何能够实现碳中性的目标。他表示:“没有单一的解决方案能够实现这一目标。”他承认,当发现实现这一目标有多么困难时,一些学生颇为震惊。

“我的目标是让学生理解这些问题的复杂性,”扎古拉克斯补充称,“但愿他们能为解决方案做出贡献。”

译者/何黎


2009年12月16日 星期三

European Commission v Microsoft Co.就反壟斷案剩餘事宜達成和解

盟委員會(European Commission)週三同意與微軟(Microsoft Co.)就反壟斷案剩餘事宜達成和解﹐從而使十年來圍繞微軟壟斷業務活動的較量告一段落。

歐盟委員會同意不再追究微軟是否非法濫用其在網絡瀏覽器市場的壟斷地位﹐而不處以罰金。相應地﹐微軟承諾在銷售自身瀏覽器Internet Explorer的同時也銷售競爭對手的瀏覽器﹐該承諾具有法律約束力。

歐 盟委員會之前指控稱﹐微軟通過在佔據支配地位的Windows操作系統中捆綁Internet Explorer瀏覽器來壓制競爭對手﹐並阻礙技術創新。歐盟委員會要求微軟向歐洲Windows用戶提供瀏覽器選擇頁面﹐此舉旨在提高競爭對手瀏覽器的 市場佔有率﹐其中包括Mozilla的Firefox﹐谷歌(Google Inc.)的Chrome、蘋果公司(Apple Inc.)的Safari以及Opera Software ASA的瀏覽器。

歐盟委員會之前還指控微軟未充分披露信息﹐妨礙了 Office套裝軟件及其他產品與競爭對手軟件的兼容。歐盟委員會表示﹐如果微軟與競爭對手分享技術信息﹐使它們的產品與一系列微軟軟件(包括 Windows、Exchange電子郵件系統及Office套裝軟件)更好地兼容﹐則該委員會將不再進行與此案相關的調查。

兩項和解的達成使微軟與歐盟之間的爭端告一段落。之前﹐微軟因各種反壟斷指控被歐洲反壟斷監管機構處以逾20億美元的罰金。

2009年12月10日 星期四

大众与铃木交叉持股

Lex专栏:大众与铃木喜结良缘
此笔交易的战略好处显而易见。
如果交叉持股发展到更深层次的整合,那么两家公司或将组建成为超越丰田的全球最大汽车集团。

2009年12月2日 星期三

Former Siemens boss agrees damages

Former Siemens boss agrees damages

Ex-Siemens chairman Heinrich von Pierer has agreed to pay his former
employer 5 million euros in damages. Pierer still denies any personal
involvement in Germany's biggest ever bribery scandal.

The DW-WORLD Article
http://newsletter.dw-world.de/re?l=ew2refI44va89pI7

European campaigners strive for corporate justice

World in Progress | 02.12.2009 | 17:30

European campaigners strive for corporate justice

Amid the ever-growing number of grievances related to questionable corporate practices, corporate social responsibility or CSR is taking on increasing significance worldwide.

There are many definitions of the term, but it broadly describes the manner in which companies manage business practices to create a generally positive impact on society at large.

The European Coalition for Corporate Justice (ECCJ) brings together national platforms of civil society organizations including NGOs, trade unions and academic institutions promoting corporate accountability from across Europe. The Brussels-based ECCJ believes that owing to the global reach of European companies, it is crucial to make them legally accountable for their operations outside the European Union.

Deutsche Welle asked the ECCJ’s Paul de Clerck what progress had been made on this front since the turn of the century when CSR began emerging as a major issue in the EU.

Interview: Ranjitha Balasubramanyam/Paul de Clerck

2009年11月27日 星期五

Acer as No. 2

台湾エイサーCEO「ネットブックの成長、11年まで続く」

 世界シェア2位のパソコンメーカー、台湾・宏碁(エイサー)のジャンフランコ・ランチ最高経営責任者(CEO)は26日、都内で記者会見し、小型・低価 格の「ネットブック」について「2011年までは成長が続く」との見通しを語った。7~9月期に欧州などで発売したスマートフォン(高機能携帯電話)を中 国や日本に投入する計画も明らかにした。

 ランチCEOは世界のパソコン市場について「世界同時不況による最悪期を脱し、10年には09年比で10~15%の出荷増が見込まれる」と指摘。得意とするネットブックを武器に日本のパソコン市場で12年に3位以内に入る方針を示した。(26日 22:33)

2009年11月26日 星期四

SkyTeam or Oneworld

American Airlines Asks Japan Airlines to Turn Down SkyTeam

The on going fight for Japan Airlines is starting to heat up even more. This news comes as American Airlines warned the airline last week that it would face enormous risks if they choose to join the SkyTeam Alliance and leave their alliance, Oneworld.

The American Airlines vice president for Asia and the Pacific, Theo Panagiotoulias, went on to tell reporters in Tokyo just last Thursday that the Oneworld alliance was providing Japan Airlines with 500 million in annual revenue. He pointed out that his alliance would give a further $100 million if both parties were successful in acquiring antitrust immunity after the conclusion of open skies talks between Japan and the United States.

The vice president of American Airlines went on to say that there is very minimal risk in staying with Oneworld; however, joining SkyTeam has enormous risks. He noted that there is not a war between the two alliances over Japan Airlines. He said that this is just the right choice for Japan Airlines’ future.

Theo Panagiotoulias continued that Japan Airlines’ defection to Skyteam would pose regulatory risks at Delta. Japan Airlines currently accounts for over 60 percent of the United States and Japan market traffic. He said that, overall, it could jeopardize Tokyo’s position as an international hub in the Asia Pacific region, as the alliance also includes Korean Air.

He finished up by saying that Japan Airlines really needs to focus on quality revenue right now and not quantity revenue. American Airlines’ overall value proposition is far superior to anything that Delta has out on the table so far.

2009年11月23日 星期一

Germany to set up task force on soccer-betting scandal

Soccer | 24.11.2009

Germany to set up task force on soccer-betting scandal

Major German soccer organizations announced the creation of a task force to investigate a betting scandal which has rocked the sport in Europe.

The German Football Federation (DFB) and the German Football League (DFL) have said they will join forces to probe 32 games suspected of having been fixed.

"A sports federation has a duty to fight organized crime with international implications," DFB president Theo Zwanziger told a press conference. "We can only achieve this with the support of the public prosecutor's office."

Police in Italy arrested nine people in connection with the scandal on Monday. This followed 17 arrests last Thursday in simultaneous raids in Germany, Britain, Austria and Switzerland.

European soccer is left reeling

The scandal is shaping up to be the continent's worst-ever case of match-fixing in soccer.

German prosecutors revealed last Friday that as many as 200 games across Europe are thought to have been rigged. Police suspect a network of 200 people fixed matches in at least 10 countries through bribes to players, coaches, referees and officials. The gang is thought to have earned as much as 10 million euros ($15 million) by winning huge bets with bookmakers in Europe and Asia, especially in China.

Theo Zwanziger headshotBildunterschrift: Großansicht des Bildes mit der Bildunterschrift: DFB's Zwanziger wants the public prosecutor's support

None of the 200 suspicious games involves any of Europe's first division clubs. The 32 German matches involve clubs extending from regional leagues up to the country's second division.

Zwanziger said the affair was unrelated to the so-called "Hoyzer scandal" of 2005. That had been German soccer's worst match-fixing affair since the 1970s.

"For me there are fundamental differences," Zwanziger told Monday's news conference. "(In 2005) we were alone with that scandal."

The "Hoyzer scandal" involved three Croatian brothers and Bundesliga referee Robert Hoyzer, who admitted to receiving 70,000 euros and a plasma television to throw matches. All the men were convicted.

"Imagine what position the DFB would be in if all those actions then had ended up without stiff sentences. That would have been a miserable result for our society," Zwanziger said.

"We now also have something this time we did not have then," he added, referring to an early warning system developed to monitor betting patterns for signs of suspicious activity.

Crime gangs are on the ball

However, DFL boss Christian Seifert cautioned that no early-warning system could be fool-proof.

"While the early-warning system is in place, no federation in the world is 100 percent safe against organised crime gangs who want to manipulate matches," Seifert said.

Meanwhile, the governing body for European football, UEFA, has called a crisis-meeting at its base in Nyon, Switzerland, for this Wednesday.

UEFA's media director, Robert Faulkner, said only groups that were affected by the most recent manipulation scandals would be invited.

jen/AFP/Reuters
Editor: Michael Lawton

2009年11月22日 星期日

Remembering Drucker

Remembering Drucker

Nov 19th 2009
From The Economist print edition

Four years after his death, Peter Drucker remains the king of the management gurus


Illustration by Brett Ryder

IN THE normal run of things the management world is divided into dozens of mutually suspicious tribes—theoreticians versus practitioners, publicity-hogging gurus versus retiring academics, supporters of “scientific” management versus advocates of the “humanistic” sort. But this month has seen unusual comity: the leaders of all the management tribes came together to celebrate the centenary of the birth of Peter Drucker, a man who is often described as “the father of modern management” and “the world’s greatest management thinker”.

The celebrations took place all around the world, most notably in Vienna, where Drucker was born, in southern California, where he spent his golden years, and in China, where he is exercising growing influence. The speakers were not limited to luminaries of management: they also included Rick Warren, the spiritual guru of the moment in America, Frances Hesselbein, a former head of the American Girl Scouts, and David Gergen, an adviser to both Republican and Democratic presidents.

To mark the centennial, the Harvard Business Review put a photograph of Drucker on its cover along with the headline: “What Would Peter Do? How his wisdom can help you navigate turbulent times”. Claremont Graduate University in California, where Drucker taught, boasts not one but two institutions that are dedicated to keeping the flame alive: the Peter Drucker and Masatoshi Ito Graduate School of Management and the Drucker Institute. The institute acts as the hub of a global network of Drucker societies that are trying to apply his principles to everything from schools to refuse collection. It also produces a “do-it-yourself workshop-in-a-box” called “Drucker Unpacked”.

Why does Drucker continue to enjoy such a high reputation? Part of the answer lies in people’s mixed emotions about management. The management-advice business is one of the most successful industries of the past century. When Drucker first turned his mind to the subject in the 1940s it was a backwater. Business schools were treated as poor relations by other professional schools. McKinsey had been in the management-consulting business for only a decade and the Boston Consulting Group did not yet exist. Officials at General Motors doubted if Drucker could find a publisher for his great study of the company, “Concept of the Corporation”, on the grounds that, as one of them put it, “I don’t see anyone interested in a book on management.”

Today the backwater has turned into Niagara Falls. The world’s great business schools have replaced Oxbridge as the nurseries of the global elite. The management-consulting industry will earn revenues of $300 billion this year. Management books regularly top the bestseller lists. Management gurus can command $60,000 a speech.

Yet the practitioners of this great industry continue to suffer from a severe case of status anxiety. This is partly because the management business has always been prey to fads and fraudsters. But it is also because the respectable end of the business seems to lack what Yorkshire folk call “bottom”. Consultants and business-school professors are forever discovering great ideas, like re-engineering, that turn to dust, and wonderful companies, like Enron, that burst into flames.

Peter Drucker is the perfect antidote to such anxiety. He was a genuine intellectual who, during his early years, rubbed shoulders with the likes of Ludwig Wittgenstein, John Maynard Keynes and Joseph Schumpeter. He illustrated his arguments with examples from medieval history or 18th-century English literature. He remained at the top of his game for more than 60 years, advising generations of bosses and avoiding being ensnared by fashion. He constantly tried to relate the day-to-day challenges of business to huge social and economic trends such as the rise of “knowledge workers” and the resurgence of Asia.

But Drucker was more than just an antidote to status anxiety. He was also an apostle for management. He argued that management is one of the most important engines of human progress: “the organ that converts a mob into an organisation and human effort into performance”. He even described scientific management as “the most powerful as well as the most lasting contribution America has made to Western thought since the ‘Federalist Papers’.” He relentlessly extended management’s empire. From the 1950s onwards he offered advice to Japanese companies as well as American ones. He insisted that good management was just as important for the social sector as the business sector. He acted as an informal adviser to the Girl Scouts. He helped inspire the mega-church movement. The management school that bears his name recruits about a third of its students from outside the business world.

Scout’s honour

The most important reason why people continue to revere Drucker, though, is that his writing remains startlingly relevant. Reading “Concept of the Corporation”, which was published in 1946, you are struck not just by how accurately he saw the future but also by how similar today’s management problems are to those of yesteryear. This is partly because, whatever the theorists like to think, management is not a progressive science: the same dilemmas and difficult trade-offs crop up time and again. And it is partly because Drucker discovered a creative middle ground between rival schools of management. He treated companies as human organisations rather than just as sources for economic data. But he also insisted that all human organisations, whether in business or the voluntary sector, need clear objectives and hard measurements to keep them efficient. Drucker liked to say that people used the word guru because the word charlatan was so hard to spell. A century after his birth Drucker remains one of the few management thinkers to whom the word “guru” can be applied without a hint of embarrassment.

2009年11月21日 星期六

Komatsu Aims to be Number One in Hybrid Construction Equipment

Komatsu Aims to be Number One in Hybrid Construction Equipment

  • 11-9, 2009

Although the company has lowered its anticipated annual sales figures, it is not overly concerned with the near-term dip in performance. The construction equipment giant is poised to sell its hybrid construction equipment throughout Asia, and aims for top market share.

“We didn't think sales would fall to this extent in Japan, the US, and Europe,” said Kunio Noji, president of Komatsu Ltd. at the press announcement of his company’s mid-year performance figures. Considering the results, his manner was unexpectedly calm.

The company's consolidated sales for April through September were 645.9 billion yen, down 46.7% from the same period last year. Operating profits in the same period were down a massive 87.6% to 19.7 billion yen. The projected annual sales figure has been revised downwards by 100 billion to 1.43 trillion yen, which would be a 29.3% decline from the previous year.

Sales and profits fall worldwide, but business in Asia stays strong

Following the financial crisis in the fall of 2008, demand for construction equipment fell precipitously. But this assessment was derived from activities in industrialized countries. In fact, Komatsu did so well in Asia, most notably China, and in Central and South America that the company exceeded its initial sales estimates. This explains Noji's calm demeanor as he announced the decrease in his company's sales figures.

The most remarkable development is the extent to which the China market has recovered its vigor. With the government investing 4 trillion renminbi (approximately 52 trillion yen) in the urbanization of inland cities and other infrastructure projects, demand for construction equipment is strong. “Our sales in China are growing at more than twice the pace of last year-demand has clearly revived,” says Mikio Fujitsuka, an executive officer and general manager of corporate planning at Komatsu.

In a bid to capture a larger share of this market, Komatsu introduced a hybrid power shovel in China this August. It is equipped with both a diesel engine and an electric motor, the former generating power for the latter. Additionally, when the revolving deck decelerates, a capacitor stores the kinetic energy for reuse as electrical power. Although it is priced at around 17 million yen, about 1.5 times the cost of a conventional power shovel, it is estimated to run on 25% less fuel on average. Operators can therefore expect to recover the higher cost in 5 years.

Since the August launch, Komatsu has moved ahead on plans to expand sales of this hybrid power shovel in China. In October, the company began production in China; it has also increased production capacity at its Shonan factory in Hiratsuka, southwest of Yokohama, where motors and other key components are made.

Komatsu has focused on China as a high-potential market for hybrid construction equipment for several reasons. One is that such equipment is in operation for much longer hours in China compared with industrialized countries, magnifying the benefits of fuel efficiency. For example, a piece of construction equipment is in use for an average of 1,500 hours a year in Japan, but for 3,000 hours annually in China. Moreover, fuel typically accounts for 17% of the maintenance and operating cost of construction equipment in Japan, but in China, low labor costs mean that fuel accounts for 55%. In such an environment, hybrids are the most economical choice.

Production capacity is presently limited, so the company forecasts this year's sales of hybrid power shovels to be about 500 units. With expanded local production capabilities, however, Komatsu aims for annual sales of more than 2,000 units, including sales of equipment made in Japan. While other manufacturers of construction equipment?including Caterpillar, the top maker worldwide?still struggle to set up mass production capabilities for hybrids, Komatsu aims to secure a place in China, a major growth market.

Aiming for Asia

Komatsu is also eyeing its future place in the fast-growing markets in the rest of Asia. In Southeast Asia and India, falling demand is expected to bottom out by next spring, in sharp contrast to the industry's meager prospects in the industrialized economies. “Truly, we are entering an age in which Asia, Oceania, China will dominate,” says Fujitsuka. For manufacturers of construction equipment, this means that the competition for market share will now be fought in the emerging economies.

Komatsu intends to introduce its hybrid equipment throughout the Asia market, and is considering manufacturing such construction equipment in Thailand and/or Indonesia. Says Noji, “Because annual hours of operation are even longer than in China, particularly in India, we may well see a day when most of the mid-size equipment in the 20-ton range will be hybrids.”

The company that wins in the Asian market will become the leading maker of construction equipment worldwide. By moving quickly to implement its strategy for hybrids, Komatsu clearly seeks to position itself as a front runner.

(Daisuke Takimoto, Staff Writer, Nikkei Business)


[News in depth Backnumber]

2009年11月17日 星期二

荷蘭將以行車里程課徵「綠色」道路稅

《中英對照讀新聞》Netherlands to levy ’green’ toad tax by the kilometer 荷蘭將以行車里程課徵「綠色」道路稅

◎魏國金

The Dutch government said it wants to introduce a "green" road tax by the kilometer from 2012 aimed at cutting carbon dioxide emissions by 10 percent and halving congestion.

荷蘭政府指出,從2012年起,希望推行依行車公里計算的「綠色」道路稅,以期減少二氧化碳排放量10%,並使塞車情形減半。

The Cabinet approved a bill calling for drivers of an average passenger car to pay a base rate of 0.03 euro per kilometer, beginning in 2012. Drivers of heavier, more polluting vehicles will pay more, and the cost will go up for driving in peak hours.

荷蘭內閣通過一項議案,要求普通客車的駕駛人於2012年開始,支付每公里0.03歐元的基本稅率。車子較重、污染較大的駕駛人將付更多費用,在尖峰時段開車的成本將攀升。

GPS will track the time, hour and place each car moves and send the data to a billing agency.

衛星定位系統將追蹤每部車開動的時刻、時數與地方,並發送資料到一個計費單位。

But the annual road tax and purchase tax for new cars will be abolished, reducing the price of a new car 25 percent, the Transport Ministry said.

不過年度公路稅與新車購買稅將廢除,如此減少新車價格25%,運輸部指出。

Nearly 6 out of 10 drivers will benefit under the system, the ministry said, but government revenue would remain the same. Public transportation, including taxis, will be exempt.

10名駕駛人中近6人將受惠於此制度,運輸部說,然而政府稅收將維持一樣。公共運輸工具,包括計程車將免稅。

The ministry calculated that overall traffic will drop about 15 percent, peak-hour congestion will be halved, traffic deaths will fall 7 percent and carbon emissions from road travel will be cut by 10 percent.

運輸部估算整體交通量將下降15%,尖峰時刻的壅塞將減半,交通死亡案件將下降7%,並且交通產生的碳排放將減少達10%。

新聞辭典

levy︰動詞, 強索、徵收。例句︰The judge livied a $3 million fine against the factory for polluting the river.(法官因該工廠污染河流,處以300萬美元罰鍰。)

congestion︰名詞,壅塞、密集。例句︰I don’t like driving through Bangkok because there’s too much congestion.(我不喜歡在曼谷開車,因為交通太壅塞了。)

call for︰片語,要求、規定。例句︰The regulations call for working in three shifts.(章程規定按三班制工作。)

2009年11月14日 星期六

Personal daily: brand Niiu day for the printed press

Personal daily: brand Niiu day for the printed press

October 8, 2009 by marek.miller

niiu_logo1An idea of a personalized newspaper should not sound new to anyone. How do most people get their news from the internet? Do they still browse the universe of webpages?
More and more users customize the web into their likings – they use multiple rss channels, subscribe to most interesting topics in google news alert and so on. But for many, there is still life in print. Newspapers are losing their ground with the descending circulation due to a lot of useless content they carry. But how can we define useless content? As many readers there is, as many ideas for an “ideal newspaper” they have. In that case, why not let readers decide, and give them a printed newspaper with the content they really demand? From the first to the last page. This is when individuated newspaper comes into play.

In a couple of days, a pioneer project in Europe is about to begin. Niiu, the personalised newspaper is based in Berlin, Germany, and represents the young person’s lifestyle and information needs on a daily basis. It structures the daily information overload that young people are experiencing and pools together diverse sources of information in order to offer the best of newspapers, the internet, and communities. Niiu will be printed on classic newsprint and delivered at the home each morning.

Wanja Oberhof, the founder of Niiu

Wanja Oberhof, the founder of Niiu

Wanja Oberhof is the founder of Niiu. He is also one of the speakers on the upcoming INMA / OPA Outlook 2010 conference. Read what Wanja Oberhof told Forum4Editors about the project, and if you wish to listen to him live or be able to ask him few questions personally, make sure you register for the conference in Liverpool. Less than two weeks are left!

Forum4Editors: Please explain to our readers what the idea of personalised newspaper is all about?

Wanja Oberhof: Niiu – the first individualized newspaper will combine various print and online content regional, national and international newspapers plus the essence from the internet. Customers can select their specific individualized content through a web-based platform. This personalized mixture is digitally printed and delivered to you every morning.

How many and which newspapers cooperate with Niiu?

Different regional, national and international titels are participating but we will not reveal them until going live on October 13th.

The model of Niiu

The model of Niiu

Please describe in short how the production cycle of a personalised newspaper looks like. What are the deadlines for printing, distribution, etc.?

Every client has the possibility to configure his or her own newspaper until 2 pm every day. Our unique technology aggregates, personalizes and publishes the various content automatically. This data is send to our printing press online. The press prints the newspapers overnight. Finally it is delivered home to each reader until latest 8am every morning.

How popular is personalised newspaper so far? Would you call it a success after the first few months of existance? Is it the future of newspapers?

niiu is the first individualized newspaper so far. There is nothing comparable in the market at the moment. Due to our official start in a few weeks, we can say that the feedback is phenomenal! I could imagine that individualized newspapers are one trend in the future, but to my mind there will be more future scenarios for newspapers. I think there will be different services, bringing various content, on several ways (iphone, e-ink, paper, e-reader) to the clients.

An idea of a personalised newspaper sounds great, but on the other hand I am afraid what I would talk with my friends about. If everybody reads a personally tailored newspaper, how does one find common topics for conversations?

To my mind, there are no problems, because the topics are more or less the same like in a regular newspaper. niiu is more about a variety of titles you can choose from. And if your friends have the same interest like you, you can choose a similar combination as they do. Additionally you can suggest single newspaper pages, blogs or RSS Feeds to them. After all you have a larger field of interest to talk about.

Thank you very much.

And what do our readers think about the idea of personalized newspaper? Is it the future of print or rather postponing its death? Please let us know in the comments below.

我们是人民

历史 | 2009.11.14

前东德国安资料馆馆长谈还历史真相

德国统一后设立了一个机构,负责管理前东德国家安全部收集的档案材料。该机构的前任负责人约阿希姆∙高克主张,对过去的历史做出进一步的整理评价。本周一(11月9日),高克在接受德意志广播电台采访时表示,明确真相与罪责是一个有益的过程,必须继续进行下去。

记者:在柏林墙倒塌20年后的今天,对您而言最为关键和主要的感受是什么?

高克:幸运与感激。其实我并不总是大众中的一员,但在这一点上我和大部分人民都有同样的感受,不仅仅是因为柏林墙的倒塌。柏林墙的倒塌是一个很好的 信号,它已经成为了一个标志,不仅我们德国人,现在全世界都知道这个历史时刻。但我一直思考,柏林墙的倒塌并不是偶然发生的,也不是因为戈尔巴乔夫是如此 的友好,而是因为在那之前四个星期,也就是1989年10月9日,莱比锡有数千人战胜了自己的恐惧和软弱,走上街头高喊:我们是人民。当时产生了一种强大 的、出人意料的力量,使我们自我克制,同时这股力量也促使执政者思考,必须要发生一些什么。对于一个获得解放的国家来说,这空间太过狭窄,于是柏林墙被推 翻了。在我看来,就是这样。我会回想1989年的秋天,那个在秋季到来的"春天"。我当时在罗斯托克,在这个城市,人们第一次真正地大规模聚集在街头,那 是在10月19日,莱比锡的和平游行则是发生在10月9日。人们克服了常年累积的恐惧,鼓起勇气,进行反抗,并重新定义自我,高喊"我们是人民"。这一切 酝酿了11月9日的到来,并赋予这一天以特别的庄严与力量。当人们赋予自己权利时,柏林墙倒塌了,这是一个奇妙的象征。

记者:经年累月,如果这一历史画面被那些不了解前东德,或者说没有在成年之后经历前东德年代的人们逐渐淡忘,您对此是否有忧虑?

高 克:如果人们总是沉溺于无知,而不热衷于政治觉醒,那当然值得担忧。只是我们不可能生活在其它的时代。总是有很多人怀旧,战后也是。可惜我已经是第二次经 历这样的情形:有人说,希特勒时代也并不是一切都那么糟糕,既然有了这样的话,那么他们也可以说当时的体制也并不是那么糟糕。这就好比智利人、阿根廷人或 是西班牙人在说,啊,皮诺切特时代、魏地拉时代或是佛朗哥时代也不是那么糟糕。有这样的人,他们没有认识到自由的好处,他们仅把把自由看作是人们可以失去 的空间。这种想法是可悲的,我很高兴,德国的政界也考虑到那些同大多数人观点不同的人的视角。

记者:现在左翼党的力量进一步加强,要提出的一个关键问题是:如何针对个别的情况对待过去的历史?勃兰登堡州州长马蒂亚斯普拉策克主张,那些曾经为前东德国家安全部工作的人也应当被接纳。他做了一个有趣的比较,战后在联邦德国,纳粹和党卫队成员也有机会。您认为这是一个正确的主张么?

高 克:现在,马蒂亚斯因为他关于党卫队的言论已经遭受了足够多的责难。但是我们还必须要说以下几点:首先,我们没有像战后时期"去纳粹化"那样实行"去共产 主义化",当时有200多万人被剥夺公职。第二,当时从公共事业部门中清除曾为前东德国家安全部工作的人员,也只去除了50%的国安部工作人员。在各州的 内政部,比如警察局,有约50%的前情报人员在继续工作。现在我们再看一下,原来的共产党员以及30%到50%前情报人员可以继续留任。这已经不能说是同 旧有体制特别对立。如果普拉策克还想要更进一步,那我认为,他不应马上提出庞大的和解计划,而是应该简单地说,他选择红红联合执政(社民党与左翼党)对于 国家而言有哪些好处--他也的确这样做了。例如他认为,基民盟党内矛盾过大等等。我认为这并不好,原因是:和解是很简单的。如果做过错事的人说出真相,并 且人们基于这个真相愿意立即直接和解,如果这真相中还含有认罪的成分,也许还有一点悔过之意,那么这本身就伴随着内在的团结与和解。但是只要左翼党从人员 组成以及政治理论方面同过去的独裁还存在紧密的联系,那么许多人,也包括我,就会称之为"机会的民主主义者"。

记者:高克先生,马蒂亚斯普拉策克这篇上周在《明镜周刊》发表的文章中有让我感到吃惊的地方。他在其中也举了例子。据我所知,过去的20年中,接受纳粹融入社会这一实践在联邦德国引发了抗议,也就是在1968年的时候。类似1968年的针对纳粹的事件在前东德并没有发生过。人们当然会问,现在柏林墙倒塌已经20年了,我们对待社会主义是否还需要采用"1968年"的方式?

高 克:我们中的许多人都有这种感觉,您说得很对。人们从德国的政治文化中也感觉得到,1968年的运动在哪里发生了,而在哪里没有发生。人们从许多其它的事 情上可以感觉到,东德的企业中没有自由工会,我们的学校里举行升旗仪式,开设军事课程,我们没有校报和班长,有的是德国自由青年联盟书记。自由的企业和学 校与独裁时代的企业和学校是不同的。这当然是值得反思的。我们为什么这样使自己适应那个社会?为什么我们承担个人的责任是如此困难?不是因为东德人性格脆 弱。东德人是伟大的,但其中也有一些不理智的人,就像全世界各地的人一样。但是他们已经做了很多。他们只是还需要更长的锻练时间,去培养这种独立负责的行 为方式。西部在这方面当然有一定的优势,但仅此而已,这并不是性格方面的优势。

记者:现在20年过去了,您认为,这些所欠缺的训练是否已经得以弥补?或者说,另一种梳理历史的方式将获得成功?

高 克:值得注意的是,同战后不同,我们马上开始睁大眼睛,采取公开行动,将共产主义非法化。我们了解关于共产主义的一切,我们通过前东德国家安全部收集的卷 宗了解到它的精密结构。我们从68年的运动中吸取了经验。因此我们对待独裁的做法不是对其保持缄默,或是将它掩盖。特别值得注意的是,现在我们有很多知情 者,同时却有很多西德人说,请不要再提过去的历史,我们根本就不愿意知道得那么详细。而且我们也并不确切地知道,什么时候这种作用影响到了公众,这种道德 净化的回忆,人们承认自己的罪过,允许悲痛和羞愧。就这一点而言,我们一直在等待一种比个别政治家或个别团体的表态更深入的行动,这样民主社会主义党 (PDS)那些真正理解民主的人们,能够开始对其党内的红色反动分子直言不讳,将自己同那些对独裁进行美化和曲解的人区分开来。

记者:您还指出:在这种情况和体制之下,如果犯了错的人认罪,但人们是在一种人人都不希望出现的情况下,也就是在压力之下做出决定,同谁合作,付出什么样的代价,考虑什么对我自己的事业是有价值的,这是否起作用?现在这还重要么,或者说这是无所谓的?

高 克:不,一个人是否使自己适应环境,这当然不重要。我之前也说了,那些合格的人能够继续工作。他们也没有被清除出去。我指的是德国统一社会党(SED)的 成员。但是罪过是值得关注的。许多人认为,人们不必谈论它,它能够自动消失。我们德国人学到的经验正是:一个国家如果承担其罪责,那么它就不会迷失自我, 这个国家就会获得新的面貌,是可以信赖的,这不仅是针对我们周围的世界,对于本国的国民也是如此。这样,同本民族的距离会转变成肯定,但并不是通过逃避。 因此我呼吁:我们不能说我们不再对任何事情感兴趣。而是我们期待这个进程能够继续下去:澄清真相与罪责--不仅是刑事方面的罪责,还包括政治责任与道德上 的罪恶。这是一个有益的过程,最终能够实现解脱。现在,如果自欺欺人地说,一切都非常和平,而不去探讨那些应当探讨并正在探讨的东西,那这将是一种虚假的 和平,我不愿意指望这种和平,我们也不需要这种和平。

作者:Bettina Klein / 余思

责编:谢菲

Chimei Innolux Corporation, TopCo

群創併奇美 躍居台灣面板龍頭
奇美集團創辦人許文龍(左二)與鴻海集團董事長郭台銘(右二)昨宣布鴻海集團旗下群創光電將與奇美電子合併。
(記者林正堃攝)

〔記者陳梅英/台北報導〕鴻海集團旗下群創光電與奇美集團奇美電子合併,群創以一股換奇美電子二.○五股,群創為存續公司,但合併後新公司將更名沿用「奇美電子」名稱,英文名稱則為Chimei Innolux Corporation(奇美群創公司)。

這宗台灣面板業有史以來最大併購案,昨日由鴻海集團董事長郭台銘與奇美創辦人許文龍共同宣布。以雙方上週五收盤價估算,奇美電二.○五股換一股群創,奇美 電股價仍有高達二成溢價空間,換言之,週一奇美電股價還有得漲,不過群創上週五已經收在平盤,若群創股價漲不動,奇美電漲幅勢必也會受限。

初步估算,「新奇美」成立後,股本約七百二十億元,總市值達三千億元,超越友達,產能市占率也以一%微幅差距領先友達,一躍成為台灣最大、全球第三大面板廠。合併基準日預計落在明年五月或六月,新奇美的董事長預定由現任奇美電董事長廖錦祥擔任,段行建為執行長兼總經理。

許文龍說,進入資訊科技時代,產業整併是台灣走向國際的必走的路,「這宗合併案對台灣非常的重要」、「不只是要當台灣的台灣,而是要做世界的台灣」。他強 調,他至今仍深信面板產業是百年難得一見的產業,很多人張開眼看到第一個東西都與面板相關,產業現在才走到「清晨八點鐘」,未來還有很長遠的路要走。他也 不斷強調,以他的年紀走到現在,追求的不是財富,雙方洽談這宗合併案,都不是從個人從中可以得到多少私人利益出發,他並認為找到鴻海這個親家,「對股東也 能交代了」。

郭台銘則表示,這宗合併不只一加一大於二,信手拈來就有採購、技術、客戶、產能等綜效,尤其不管是奇美實、許文龍對於奇美電,或是郭台銘、鴻海對於群創, 自家人持股比例高,「拿自己的錢出來投資,做事也一定會較為謹慎」。新奇美成立後,奇美實業許文龍家族將為公司最大股東,鴻海與郭台銘則是第二大股東。

郭台銘並自誇,奇美實業與鴻海集團各自有良好的基因(企業文化),雙方聯姻,會造成好的突變,台灣面板業再也不是一家獨大,「兩家(友達與新奇美)公平合 理的競爭,對產業的進步是良性的」。郭台銘也認為,未來全球面板業,除了第一名三星外,第二到第四名的排名將會大洗牌。根據市調機構資料,全球前四大面板 廠排名依序為三星、LGD(樂金顯示)、友達與奇美電,顯然郭台銘企圖心不僅要贏過友達,還要挑戰LGD。

群創對奇美電的追求早在今年初就已經展開,合併傳言在市場上不知道傳過幾遍,但真正敲定是在上週四晚間,只是週四早盤,股市已有反應,奇美電一度爆量漲停 板,最後沒守住,即使隔天消息見報,雙方均否認,奇美股價仍有半根漲停板,追價者眾,顯示市場均樂見奇美電找到好買家。

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英航Iberia合併 要飛出活路
英國最大航空公司英航(BA)將與西班牙最大的伊比利亞(Iberia)合併,組成歐洲第三大航空集團,與前兩大的法航荷航、德航較勁。
路透

圖/經濟日報提供

歷經長達16個月的協商,英國航空(BA)與西班牙伊比利亞航空(Iberia)12日同意合併,組成歐洲第三大航空集團,盼能抵擋旅客下滑之勢,並強化與法航荷航(Air France-KLM)及德航等同業的競爭力。

這樁換股合併交易總值為70億美元,預定2010年完成,尚待主管機關和股東同意。根據12日的協議聲明,英航將持有合併後新公司TopCo的55%股 份,伊比利亞占45%;英航執行長瓦許(Willie Walsh)將擔任執行長,伊比利亞執行長瓦茲奎茲(Antonio Vazquez)則出任董事長。

為了稅賦考量,新公司將在馬德里註冊,董事會和股東會議也大多在馬德里舉行,但營運和財務總部在倫敦,股票會在倫敦證交所(LSE)上市。伊比利亞股東每股可換得1.0205股新公司股票;每股英航股票則可換得新公司1股。

英航與伊比利亞將各自保留招牌,合併營收每年估計可達150億歐元(220億美元),合併五年後預估每年可節省近6億美元的成本。新公司有419架客機,205條航線。

英航和伊比利亞去年7月就宣布開始協商合併,但為了持股比率及英航背負26.6億歐元退休金赤字的問題,協商陷入僵局。

同時,經濟下滑造成旅客繼續減少,全球航空公司都降價、減班,厲行撙節。

英航和伊比利亞近來皆力行刪減成本並整頓營運,因此引爆勞資糾紛。英航傳機組人員將在耶誕節罷工,以反對公司裁員和凍結薪酬的決議;伊比利亞近幾周來也因罷工取消數百個航班,該公司13日公布第三季淨損1,640萬歐元,遠不及去年同期的淨利2,040萬歐元。

英航和伊比利亞合併後可望擴大航空網絡。英航的主要據點為倫敦希斯洛機場,是全球旅客數僅次於亞特蘭大的熱門機場,本身亦是跨大西洋航線的霸主;伊比利亞則在拉丁美洲有廣大網路。

經濟衰退讓航空公司紛紛另謀出路,有的和競爭對手連結,藉由購併或結盟分享利潤,也有業者共用員工、統合航線,甚至合資購置飛機。

【2009/11/14 經濟日報】

2009年11月7日 星期六

喋血案

胡德堡喋血案》勇悍女警 開槍伏兇

〔編譯魏國金、管淑平/綜合報導〕犯下美國德州胡德堡槍擊案的醫官哈山,六日被轉到軍方醫院接受嚴密看護。他在攻擊中發射超過百發子彈,所有跡象顯示,這是早有預謀的行動,調查人員目前正試圖找出他的犯案動機。初步調查發現,哈山犯案前已有特別的徵兆,但卻沒受到注意。

犯案之前 分送家具可蘭經

在犯案前一天,哈山突然敲鄰居家門,把自己的書架、檯燈與冷凍蔬菜等物品分送左鄰右舍。他也送出幾本可蘭經,並以自己要搬家或是要調到中東等理由,向困惑的鄰居解釋。

哈山到底是因為他的伊斯蘭宗教信念犯案,還是因為替歸國官兵進行心理輔導以致不堪壓力,至今仍眾說紛紜。在美國穆斯林害怕自己會受到連累之際,美國總統歐巴瑪已要求國民不要對原因妄加揣測;他同時下令所有聯邦機構從六日到十一日期間下半旗悼念槍擊案遇難者。

哈 山的八十八歲祖父哈梅德七日對哈山會做出這樣的事情,表示「無法相信」,他說:「哈山是位醫師,熱愛美國」,「美國造就了他今日的成就。」他說,哈山「是 不是生氣還是有其他原因,我不清楚…,我知道的是,他不可能做出這種事。」哈梅德顯然也排除哈山此舉是出於政治動機的可能,他表示,哈山對政治完全沒興 趣。

哈山的堂兄弟奈德.哈山則說,據他們所知,哈山被派往海外,「可能是過去五年來最大的惡夢」,身為穆斯林的哈山也曾抱怨遭同袍騷擾。另 一名表親默哈梅德.哈山則說,哈山一週前才聘請律師設法讓他離開軍隊,但是遭軍方拒絕,還要他去阿富汗,軍方拒絕讓哈山退伍,或許是這次血案的動機。

若 無意外,在輸血後保住一命的哈山,應會面臨死刑的判決。美國媒體六日均把報導焦點,放在英勇阻止哈山行兇的女警金柏莉.孟莉身上。當時她準備將巡邏車送進 廠維修,途中接獲警用電台通知基地爆發槍擊案,她迅速將車開抵現場,然後看到哈山少校揮舞手槍、追著一名受傷的士兵,她隨即衝出車外,拔槍射擊。

面對槍擊 女警駁火往前衝

當 她向哈山開槍後,哈山轉向她開火,她跑向他繼續開槍,哈山身中四槍,而她的兩條大腿與右手腕也受傷。美國當局指出,孟莉是否為撂倒哈山的唯一一人,雖然不 得而知,但她是第一位向哈山還擊的人。三十四歲的孟莉身高僅一百六十二公分,胡德堡緊急救援部主任梅德里指出,「她絕對是個英雄」。

在五日 的殺戮中,哈山發射逾百發子彈、槍殺了十三名同袍,另有三十八人受傷。回顧當時,約三百名準備調派至戰區的軍人排隊進行體檢,哈山手持至少兩把手槍,在數 本軍火雜誌的掩護下出其不意對著手無寸鐵的同袍掃射,大部分的傷者身中兩到三槍,中槍部位在胸、腹與頸部。生還者史密斯說,他可以聽見子彈從頭上呼嘯而過 的聲音。



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美男被開除2年 返公司殺人
法新社

〔編譯張沛元/綜合佛羅里達州奧蘭多七日外電報導〕就在美國德州發生軍事基地喋血案隔日,佛州奧蘭多六日發生去職員工挾怨重返前東家報復的槍擊案,導致一死五傷。警方表示,這名在兩年前遭革職的員工被捕後還痛斥前雇主對他不聞不問,「任由我腐爛至死」。

四 十歲的傑森.羅德里格茲持手槍前往位於奧蘭多市中心一棟十六層樓的辦公大樓,直闖位於八樓的前東家辦公室行兇,所有死傷者都是前東家員工。警方獲報趕來後 隨即疏散人員並封鎖該大樓、附近辦公室與學校,也派出霹靂小組逐層搜索槍手下落。三小時後,警方接獲線報前往槍手母親公寓,逮捕投降就擒的羅德里格茲。目 前並不清楚致電通報者是羅德里格茲的母親或其他人。

警方表示,羅德里格茲被捕時並未反抗,甚至還表示歉意,「我現在過得很不好,我很抱歉」。根據警方轉述,羅德里格茲認為他近來在領取失業救濟金上發生問題,都是前雇主的錯。他將被控包括一級謀殺在內的多項罪名。

羅德里格茲的行兇動機,顯然是報復兩年多前開除他的建築工程公司。據報導,他在前年七月失業同月被州政府諭令接受精神健康評估,同年九月申請破產。離婚並有一名八歲兒子的羅德里格茲有近九萬美元的債務。

但羅德里格茲的友人法爾科說,羅德里格茲是運氣不佳的正直好人,「他找不到工作,付不了帳單,所以他才搬回去跟他母親住」,「他們把他說得好像怪獸,但他不是。我知道他殺了人,但我覺得他只是太衝動氣昏頭」。

2009年11月5日 星期四

Eric Schmidt the weather of Bay Area

Google Inc. Chief Executive Eric Schmidt has snapped up Bay Area talent for years, first as an executive at Sun Microsystems Inc., then as CEO of computer maker Novell Inc. and now as the 54-year-old boss at Google.

The hiring has been particularly fast and furious at the Internet search giant, which has grown to more than 19,600 employees world-wide. Roughly a third of those workers live in the Bay Area, according to Google.

Google CEO Eric Schmidt cites the weather as a reason young people flock to the Bay Area

part Google recruits from Stanford University and the University of California, Berkeley, among other places, and has set off hiring wars with rivals such as Microsoft Corp. Now Google is poised to beef up its work force again as the tech industry comes out of a recession and workers remain plentiful amid high unemployment rates in Silicon Valley.

Here's what Mr. Schmidt, a 33-year resident of the Bay Area, had to say about Silicon Valley hiring and the role of the weather in the local labor market:

Q: With so many other schools in the U.S. and around the world doubling down on engineering and technology, is Silicon Valley at risk of losing its edge?

A: Anyone who bets against Silicon Valley is betting against a successful track record of 40 or 50 years.

You've got the universities. You've also got a very, very effective venture-capital industry, which is very well honed and you have the creations of at least a biotech revolution and a high-tech revolution, and the possibilities of the green revolution being created here.

When I'm asked about this, and I've been asked this for years, I answer this the same: It is the weather. There's a reason why generations of young people who are willing to challenge assumptions and so forth have ended up in the Bay Area, and the weather is not a small part.

Q: What makes Silicon Valley and Silicon Valley workers different, and can that be replicated elsewhere?

A: You need a bunch of things. You need a venture-capital industry, you need a culture that will be tolerant of failure and the laws have to allow you to fail and not be criminalized. You have to obviously have a global perspective.

It has been remarked many times in Silicon Valley that when you walk through Silicon Valley, the majority of the people do not look like WASP-y Americans. They at least visually appear culturally different and they are often from India, for example. These are all reproducible but they aren't reproducible easily.

Q: Many of the industries you have outlined, like biotech and energy, require sustained investment and lots of investment in capital-intensive infrastructure. Does Silicon Valley have the culture to wait for those sort of transformative initiatives to bear fruit?

A: I think it is a mistake to assume that the only interesting businesses are the ones which require no capital like Web-based businesses. I don't see any particular reason why high-cost capital business cannot also be built in the same cauldron as these low-cost ones.

Q: As Google starts hiring again, what percentage of your new hires will come from the Bay Area, and how does that compare to previous years?

A: I suspect it will be pretty similar. The supply lines are pretty much the same every year.

Top universities, key technical companies, talent that wants to move to Google and so the primary hiring has been, if you think of universities, has been Stanford and Berkeley. And then you have a couple places like MIT and Carnegie Mellon.

But I would say that if you include people who are currently students and therefore they already live in Bay Area, it is probably a very healthy percentage.

Q: A lot of workers in Silicon Valley have been laid off. Do you think they will end up back in the tech sector? Will Google hire them?

A: I don't know about Google.

I do think that they will be rehired and especially if they have maintained their currency.

The problem with being laid off in Silicon Valley is if you are laid off for a few years, which would be terrible, during that time, the technology moves forward, so you have to keep yourself current.

If they maintain their currency, I think there are very good hopes for them.

Write to Jessica E. Vascellaro at jessica.vascellaro@wsj.com

2009年11月3日 星期二

Ver. di和IG Metal 意见相左

经济纵横 | 2009.11.03

德国两大工会谈判策略相左

在即将开始的劳资谈判中应采取什么立场?目前,德国两个最大的工会组织德国服务行业工会(Ver. di)和金属行业工会(IG Metal)意见相左。德国服务行业工会在经济危机时刻依然准备全力以赴,为雇员争取更高的薪金。相反,金属行业工会主席胡伯则认为,经济危机时期的首要 任务是保障就业。哪一种方式能够促进经济发展?这是一个在专家眼中也存在争议的问题。

下一轮劳资谈判将在2010年初举行, 但现在德国两个最大的工会组织已经对在谈判回合中采取什么策略这一问题出现了争议。因为,谈判桌上将决定,采用哪种方式使德国摆脱经济危机。德国服务行业 工会主席弗兰克∙波斯尔克的态度很简单:在过去的六年中始终存在实际工资损失,而现在,人们的口袋里必须有更多的钱,这样才能够推动经济增长。他表示:" 这几年我们一直在承受实际工资损失,现在已经没有空间再去放弃一部分人的工资要求,而让少数人赚更多钱。我们需要为所有人提高工资,这是我们要向雇主们传 递的讯息。"

德国金属行业工会主席胡伯的看法则刚好相反:他 更注重保住工作岗位。因此他并不主张提高工资。纽纶堡-爱尔兰根大学的劳动市场专家克劳斯∙施纳博尔分析说:"服务行业的就业岗位并没有受到很大的威胁, 因此人们可以平静地要求再增加一些工资,以促进国内需求。问题在于:国家必须能够担负得起这些要求。而现在的国家财政并不乐观。"

如果国家缺钱,那也就自然没钱用来分配,这是个 很简单的道理。对于服务行业工会来说,这意味着将要连续第七年遭受实际工资损失。汉斯贝克勒基金会的比斯平克对这种小心谨慎的节约心态持批评意见: "如 果我们所有人现在都执行放弃工资的政策,那就有可能陷入一种我们无法承受的螺旋式的衰退。在德国始终存在通货紧缩加重的危险。我认为,金属行业工会主席胡 伯的意思也并不是,要人们通过维持工资水平不变来抑制通货紧缩。"金属行业工会有自己的想法Bildunterschrift: Großansicht des Bildes mit der Bildunterschrift: 金属行业工会有自己的想法

胡伯首要关注的其实并不是节约--他只是希望保 障该行业内的工作岗位,同时要求大家面对现实。出口领域遭受损失,削减就业岗位,采用短时工作制,工业领域受经济危机严重影响,比服务业所面临的情况要糟 糕得多。比斯平克认为,这两家工会组织之间并不存在根本性的矛盾: "在即将开始的劳资谈判回合中,大家要求的侧重点有所不同。德国工会联合会下的各个工 会始终保持自治,因此从来没有允许其它的工会或是外界干预他们的工资政策。将来也会是这样,我不会过高地估计目前对下一轮劳资谈判回合侧重点存在的分 歧。"

美国最新的经济数据以及德国劳动力市场的稳定给 人们带来希望,或许经济危机能够慢慢结束。这样,两家工会组织也将重新走到一起。克劳斯∙施纳博尔表示:"如果危机结束,金属行业工会也就能够有所好转。 但现在首要的问题是保障就业岗位。因为岗位一旦失去,就很难再重新赢回来。若是雇员都没有了,那工会也就没有成员了。"

作者:Friedel Taube / 余思

责编:石涛

2009年11月2日 星期一

Ford had made a $1bn profit in the third quarter

Ford yesterday offered a rare ray of hope for a car industry in the doldrums by reporting that it had made a $1bn profit in the third quarter.

The carmaker also reported its North American arm returning to profitability after four-and-a-half years and raised its official view on its outlook, saying it was on course to be “solidly profitable” by 2011.

Ford, the only one of the US's “big three” carmakers to avoid bankruptcy this year, was boosted by cost-cutting, increased market share and government-sponsored incentives such as the “cash for clunkers” programme in the US.

Ford's net income in the quarter was $997m or 29 cents per share, compared with a net loss of $161m or 7 cents per share in the same period last year. Analysts had expected on average that the company would post a loss of 13 cents per share.

It reported its first pre-tax operating profit – $1.1bn – since the first quarter of 2008. That was largely driven by the performance of Ford North America, which posted its first profitable quarter since the first quarter of 2005, with a pre-tax operating profit of $357m, compared with a loss of $2.6bn a year ago.

Ford's expectation that it would be “solidly profitable” by 2011 upgraded its prior statement that it would “break even or better” by that year. However, Alan Mulally, president and chief executive, said the outlook for next year was much more doubtful. “We're just not sure about the strength of the recovery,” he said.

2009年11月1日 星期日

短工时制

德国经济 | 2009.11.01

汽车皮带生产商Autoliv继续短工时制

全球经济危机爆发后,德国许多公司引入了短工时制。起初,短工时制还仅作为危机时刻短暂过渡时期的一个设想,但几个月来,短工时制在德国的企业却变为了一 个现实。从今年2月份以来,在萨克森州德伯尔恩的一家名为Autoliv的汽车公司就缩短了通常的工作时间。Autoliv是一家汽车皮带生产商,专为汽 车工业供货,而这也是首先遭遇经济危机的一个行业。

实行短工时制半年过后,该厂的400多名员工仍然没有安全感。他们问自己,依靠短时工的生活还有多久才会过去?究竟他们的企业还有多久才能扭转销售额下滑的局面?

不过,Autoliv公司的生产线仍在运转。这可算是从萨克森州德伯尔恩传来的好消息。目前宝马、奔驰、福特和欧宝汽车公司每天需要的约3000个 汽车皮带就在这里离开生产线。尽管有危机,生产还在运行,但数月来的生产水平处于低迷状态。就在一年前,车厂三个班次的时间里还多生产1500个汽车皮 带。随后市场需求量就降低了三分之一。今年2月份以来的销售额至少在某种程度上保持稳定。

工厂负责人希维亚·塔格说:"工厂目前就稳定在这个水平,销售额没有继续下滑。但仅去年11月份到今年2月初我们厂的销售额就下滑了34%。对此,我们不得不在工作方式上进行调整。"

由于工厂负责人不愿意裁员,这就意味着唯一的改变方式是:实行短工时制度。半年来,几乎Autoliv的所有员工都进入了短工时制,并且在未来几个 月也不会有太多的改变。希维亚·塔格说: "目前,我们与职工委员会协商将短工时制延长至2010年3月31日。现在我们很幸运,到2009年底我们还能为员工提供工作保障。相反,员工放弃了通过资协议获得薪金调整的机会"

短工时制下,诺大的车间里只有很少的员工Bildunterschrift: Großansicht des Bildes mit der Bildunterschrift: 短工时制下,诺大的车间里只有很少的员工

用不涨工资换取几个月的工作保障,此外还有短期工时制带来的显而易见的经济损失。员工已经切身体会到了经济危机的到来,短时工作者的收入平均减少了 20%。15年来,乌特·格伯伦德都在Autoliv的生产线工作,而且收入一向不错。可是一年来,她开始尝试着节俭的生活。格伯伦德说:"我们取消了不 必要的开支,例如:固定电话。关于保险费我现在也在考虑,是否还能支付的起?还有我必须放弃养老保险吗?此外,健身房也是人们可以省钱的地方,总之还有很 多需要节省的地方。"

到目前为止,Autoliv公司还没有一位员工因为持续中的危机而失业。到现在为止,希维亚·塔格还能避免发出解聘信。但仍有超过30位员工自愿离 开了工厂,因为工厂的未来并不乐观。塔格表示:"截至目前,我们并没有因为经营情况解雇员工。但是我们不想隐瞒,现在我们正有这样的考虑,并且我们在与职 工委员会进行谈判。法律规定,短时工制度到明年9月30日截止。在这种情况下,我们必须作好进行调整的准备。"

希维亚·塔格也不清楚,未来几个月订货量的实际情况将会如何。一年来,这位工厂负责人降低了成本,以弥补收入上的损失。例如:为企业正常运转寻找最 佳方案、提高工作效率、节省电力。而降低成本也已经达到工厂的极限。现在只有裁员才能节省更多的成本。短时工阻止了这一局面的发生,而且极大程度地减轻了 企业的负担。劳务中介机构负责人沃尔克马·贝尔预言,在未来半年,很多企业会遭遇经济危机带来的后果。贝尔表示:"2009/2010年冬季将是一个经受 严峻考验的时期,经济界要么得以渡过寒冬,要么就将不得不体验到企业崩溃的局面。总之,2010年是个艰难的一年。我们这个地区有很多小型企业。这就意味 着短时工和经济危机将分担到很多企业的肩上。我们要对此抱有健康乐观的态度。"

为了保住已不稳定的工作位置,仅有乐观向上的精神是不够的,还必须有订货量。然而在萨克森州德伯尔恩德的Autoliv公司,人们十分现实,在积极 思索的同时更加务实。这不仅体现在工厂的管理层。该公司负责人格伯伦德表示:"没有一个企业能够承受,在没有订单的情况下还可以继续雇佣员工。但如果工厂 订单能重新保持稳定,那所有的员工都能保住饭碗,这对所有人来说都是一个最佳的解决方案。但是这是否现实,我们仍有我们的疑虑。"

作者:Ronny Arnold/ 严严

责编:乐然

LANAMI罰鍰

化粧品「LANAMI」的電視廣告近一年來遭衛生署罰了十九次,仍強力放送。衛生署表示,因現行法令對這類情節僅能處五萬元以下罰鍰,他們正準備修法,將罰鍰上限提高至十五萬元。 NCC(國家通訊傳播員會)傳播內容處副處長簡旭徵指出,所有播放這個廣告的電視台,都要裁罰 ...

2009年10月31日 星期六

1929年大崩盤80周年

历史的教训:1929纽约金融风暴80周年


上世纪20年代,在那个处于黄金时代的大都会纽约,人们可以一夜暴富:华尔街的股票以令人眩晕的速度不断攀升,而金钱的巨大诱惑力几乎把所有阶层的民众都 吸引到了股票交易所。直到1929年10月28日,80年前的那个"黑色星期一",华尔街的神话破灭,整个世界经济都被卷入了一场史无前例的萧条之中。而 在80年后的今天,我们面对的这场经济危机,会不会也演变成为一场大萧条呢?历史和现实之间有多少相似之处呢?

“您身后的这幢大楼就是昔日的雷曼兄弟银行总部,我们待会儿会详细介绍它的故事……”
——纽约曼哈顿的市中心阴雨绵绵:在金融区的建筑中,游客们手中的雨伞给灰色的背景上增添了一抹五彩的基调。2009年10月--为纪念1929年 华尔街金融危机爆发80周年,纽约的"金融博物馆"组织了一次环城游活动。这位年轻女教师对此感到十分兴奋:“我非常期待。我在之前已经对此作了一些相关 的了解。我们是跟着新罕布什尔州大学的一个投资管理学研修班来到这儿的,为的就是参观纽约的股票交易所和一些其他景点。当我们得知有这么一个环城游的活动 之后,就提前几天过来了。”
李察德·沃斯豪威尔和詹姆斯·卡普兰担任这种活动的向导已经有20多年了,李察德说,他们总是装备着扩音喇叭,并且风雨无阻:"组织这次活动的目的 就是让人们通过华尔街这个缩影,了解纽约金融、房地产、建筑和政治等方面的历史。今年是华尔街金融危机爆发80周年,这也是股票历史上的一个重大事件。"
游客们直接在见证历史的地点--闻名全世界的华尔街股票交易所门前集合。
在纽约证券交易所对面,联邦大厦门前的台阶上,游客们撑着伞,聚精会神地倾听讲解员詹姆斯再现当年的历史。他谈起了黄金般的20年代--当时由于整 个欧洲都由于战争的毁灭而一蹶不振,美国则一跃为世界上最重要的供货商。美国的生产和技术革新出现欣欣向荣的景象--纽约大学经济史学教授李察德·希拉这 样回忆道:"飞机、无线电广播、电影和电子科技--20年代是一个令人乐观向上的时代。但似乎当形势发展得过于令人乐观的时候,就会出现失控的情况:人们 开始不惜冒巨大的风险,利用金钱进行投机倒把,把股票价格推到了令人眩晕的高度。"
而每个人都是造成危机原因的一分子:只要钱不够花了,就去借--那个年代,贷款炒股是轻而易举的事情。
1929年9月初,道琼斯股指攀上了381点的高峰,之后由于美联储提高利率,股票一度轻微下跌。直到10月24日--那个黑色的星期四,股市刚一开盘就暴跌了两成。富有的投资商和银行家以闪电式的收购股票作为回应,希望能支撑住狂跌的股价。李察德·希拉接着回忆道:"
"在之后的星期五和星期六,股市的情况还算差强人意,但是到了星期一,也就是10月28日,股票再次暴跌了10%到11%。到星期二,10月29 日,股市再次下滑10%。也就是说,在两天之内,股票价格整整跌了21%到22%。所以人们常把这两天称作黑色星期一和黑色星期二,而它们也就成为了那场 金融风暴的代名词。"到30年代初,危机席卷全世界,德国当然也被波及Bildunterschrift: Großansicht des Bildes mit der Bildunterschrift: 到30年代初,危机席卷全世界,德国当然也被波及
在那次崩盘之后,股市仍然显现出了一段时间的回升,并一直持续到1930年的4月。尽管很多银行家在经历了那场劫难之后就倾家荡产,一夜之间变得身 无分文,但是大多数民众直到若干年之后才真正感受到危机的到来:1932年,每四个美国人当中就有一个失业,物价暴跌,经济生产总量缩水三分之一。数千家 银行倒闭--政府认为这是它们自作自受。
经济史学家李察德·希拉表示:""当经济大萧条刚来临的时候,政府基本上是袖手旁观,结果导致形势每况愈下,直到1932年,胡佛总统才采取了一些 类似干预的手段,因为那时候情况实在是太糟了。1933年3月,罗斯福总统上台,政府才真正开始行动,而这些措施其实早在两三年前就应该实施了。"
在这一点上,2009年出现经济危机时,全球各国政府的表现就截然不同了:它们都迅速采取了果断的措施来应对危机。
以金融危机为主题的环城游结束了,讲解员李察德认为,1929年的金融风暴和我们今天面临的危机也有相似之处。"每当股市暴涨的时候,我们总是一味 地相信这种形势会永远持续下去。但是历史告诉我们,在股票上涨之后,它总是会下跌的。这是一个循环,是我们无法改变的规律。我们给不同时期的经济危机赋予 不同的名称,总结出不同的特点,但它们本质上都是一样的,我们都逃脱不了这个循环。"
那么对于这个问题,学术界是怎么看的呢?金融市场专家曼弗雷德·叶戈尔来自位于科隆的德国经济研究所,他认为1929年金融危机和今天的全球经济危 机第一个相似点就是,它们都具有全球性,而不是局限在某一个地域范围内或某一个领域的局部性危机。"这两次经济危机的相似之处在于负债率过高。也就是说, 过多的人用借来的钱进行投资,因此投资一旦不成功,就会遇到资金瓶颈。由于人们没有资本偿还这些损失,就导致出现资金缺口,随后整个市场就开始螺旋下 滑。"
根据曼弗雷德·叶戈尔的观点,政府为了应对今年的金融危机所采取的措施是有效的--显然政界也从历史中吸取了教训。"上世纪30年代出现大萧条后, 各国采取了带有浓重保护主义色彩的措施,导致国际贸易滑坡,又更加剧了经济萧条。谢天谢地,我们目前还没有出现这种情况,但愿这种现状能维持下去。"2009年经济危机到来之后,美国等世界各国均采取了果断的应对措施Bildunterschrift: Großansicht des Bildes mit der Bildunterschrift: 2009年经济危机到来之后,美国等世界各国均采取了果断的应对措施
从目前的形势看,受挫的国际贸易也许可以较为轻松地走出低谷,这在金融专家叶戈尔看来是一个重要的优势。两次金融危机的另外一个明显区别就是,政府 在货币政策上的反映不同。80年前,美国政府采取了提高利率的方法,这就相当于"抽走了资金流通的血液",叶戈尔说:"在这次的金融危机中,政府采取了截 然相反的做法,它们向资金流通中注入了大量的额外血液,这就有效促进了金融市场的稳定。"
金融专家叶戈尔认为,目前的国际金融市场上还不存在真正的信贷紧缩困境。企业还是能得到所需的贷款。但是,假如未来一段时间资本的流动出现停滞,并 影响到经济增长,那么目前的这场金融危机就很有可能演变为一场大萧条。叶戈尔说:"假如再度出现经济负增长,就可以将其称为经济萧条了。然而,我们认为这 种情况出现的可能性不是很大。假如我们将之与日本此前经历的十年经济萧条相比较就会发现,我们所真正面临的威胁是什么。因为日本正是在金融市场出现危机之 后没能选取正确的经济政策,才导致它的经济发展被耽误了整整十年。"
现在,各国政府手中应对危机的唯一"良方"就是:通过谨慎温和的减税措施来减轻企业负担,同时又不能使国家财政背上过重的包袱。这也许能使就业市场的严峻形势得到一定缓解。
1929年的那个"黑色星期一"已经过去整整80年了,在这80年中,世界经济和人类生活都发生了翻天覆地的变化,但为什么相似的金融风暴能够在21世纪再度席卷华尔街并波及全世界,恐怕是人们除了应对眼前的危机之外,最应该深思和反省的问题。
作者:Miriam Braun/Klaus Ulrich/雨涵
责编:石涛
*****
高伯瑞(John K. Galbraith, 1908-2006)這本1954年出版,後來不斷重印,到他逝世前已發行了80萬冊的《1929年大崩盤》,它不是談1929年股市大崩盤的一本普通書,而是有它的原委、立意,以及後來的影響。
 
本書有著下述意義:
  (一)它是截至當時,真正重量級學者寫1929年股市大崩盤的第一本著作。
  (二)人們現在已知道,高伯瑞寫作,一般都至少要五易其稿、使其流暢、嚴謹而易懂。本書即有這樣的特性,而這也是本書一出版即佳評如潮,成為暢銷書的原因。
  (三)對高伯瑞的著作與思想有理解的人都知道,高伯瑞並非一般的經濟問題技術專家,而是有歷史觀、人性觀和價值觀的全視野經濟思想家。因此他在談1929年股市大崩盤時,其實是有解釋觀點的。他特別著重在貪婪投機文化的形成、當時有權有勢者的蒙昧樂觀及間接助長、金融體系「脫紀律化」所造成的投機氾濫,以及當時許多著名學者為股市造勢的媚俗表現。他的這些「以人為本」的價值前提,其實也貫串了他所有的其他著作。他的這些觀點,也等於是替後代人在談論1929大崩盤時定了調。高伯瑞談股市大崩盤,加上後來他的好友史萊辛格談新政,人們始對大蕭條時代有了全局的理解。
 
  貪婪總是會付出代價的。1920年代是美國樂觀輕快、甚至是輕浮的「爵士時代」,它的浮華投機所付出的代價則是整個大蕭條的代價。
而人類所犯的錯雖然不可能如原樣般重現,但卻會用一種有近親相似性的方式,以另一種面貌再來。過去20的貪婪投機以及金融失控「脫紀律」,乃是金融海嘯及全球深度衰退的原因。迄至目前為止,全球究竟已否觸底?或者還有第二波衰退在前面等待?這些都是開放的問題。在這樣的時刻重讀高伯瑞這本著作,人們又怎能不格外感慨呢? 繼續閱讀
今昔對比/詹姆士.高伯瑞
「沒有人會懷疑,美國人仍然很容易受到投機心理的影響,堅信企業能夠享有無限的報酬,身為個人理應可以參與分享。上漲的市場仍可帶來確實的財富,於是就能吸引越來越多的人參與。政府的預防措施和控制手段都要準備就緒。如果行事果決的政府掌握這些措施和手段,就不用懷疑它們的效能。然而,政府仍然有各種理由決定不使用這些措施和手段。」
 
  1929年的大崩盤和2008年的金融海嘯相似之處就在此。政府在當時都知道該如何因應,但同時都拒絕這樣做。2004年,聯邦調查局曾經公開警示會爆發「貸款詐騙潮」。但是政府竟然毫無反應,更糟糕的是,反而提供低廉的利率、解除管制並且表明不會強制執行法律。這麼做簡直就是火上澆油。根據葛林斯潘(Alan Greenspan)的路線,他們認為經濟的泡沫化是不可避免的現象,政府的工作僅在於善後。葛林斯潘的做法就是不斷創造一個又一個的經濟泡沫,直到最後一個泡沫大到摧毀整個經濟體系。 繼續閱讀
 
為什麼全世界都在讀這本書?!
人類的愚昧會不斷重演,因此每個人都該了解這段歷史!
 
1929年大崩盤
作者:約翰‧高伯瑞(John Kenneth Galbraith
定價350 規格:硬殼精裝
目錄
序言 九0年代的觀點
第一章 「夢幻、無窮的希望與樂觀主義」
第二章 應該有所作為?
第三章 我們信賴的高盛
第四章 幻想的暮光
第五章 大崩盤
第六章 越來越嚴峻的情勢
第七章 後果
第八章 後果(二)
因與果
 
歷史上永恆的投資/經濟經典
★美國《財富》雜誌、《紐約時報》、《聖路易郵報》、《大西洋月刊評論》一致盛讚!
★作者高伯瑞之子,著名的經濟學家詹姆士‧高伯瑞專文推薦!
★國內專家學者沈雲驄、南方朔、劉憶如專業推薦!
【內容簡介】
 
1929年大崩盤》這本書最早於1954年出版,此後在195519611972197919881997年不斷再版,直到如今已有五十四年。作者高伯瑞是美國二十世紀經濟學界的代表人物,除了作者及書本身的重要性之外,還有一個能讓本書銷量維持不墜的理由:每一次它的出版,另一個可能發生的事件——另一個泡沫或是緊接而來的不景氣——就會激起大家對這段大蕭條和崩盤歷史的興趣,它曾引發一場慘烈的不景氣。
猖獗的投機。創紀錄的交易量。人們大肆購買資產,不是因為它們的價值,而是因為買方相信自己可以在短短的一、兩天,甚至幾個小時內脫手,迅速致富。樂觀主義和它所帶來的影響主宰了整個股票市場。然而這一切終將結束。股市的下挫總是比上漲來得突然。在1929年股市大崩盤之後,緊接而來的經濟大蕭條持續了十年之久。1929~1933年,國民生產毛額(經濟總產量)下降近30%。在1930年到1940年之間,只有1937年這一年的平均失業人數少於800萬人。1933年大約有1,300萬人失業,幾乎每四個勞工有一人失業。到1938年仍然有五分之一的人失業
1929年的大崩盤和2008年的金融海嘯相似之處在於,政府在當時都知道該如何因應,但同時又都拒絕這樣做,只是一昧地向民眾信心喊話,宣稱經濟基本面健全,卻造成無可挽回的局面。深受其害的云云大眾無不猜測,金融危機後的發展是否要回溯到1930年的崩盤及之後的年代?而2009年初股市的回升究竟是經濟復甦的現象或只是一時的反彈?答案無從知曉,就如同高伯瑞在序言中所說的:「我不會去預測,只是提醒大家過去曾經如此鮮活地提醒我們的教訓,我在這本書中提出最後的忠告。」
而不願再被歷史的愚昧所左右的你我,該是時候停止猜測,好好認真抱讀高伯瑞所給的忠告了。
 
【各界讚譽】
美國《財富》雜誌將《1929年大崩盤》列為其推薦的75本必讀商業類圖書之首選,並評論:「生動地描繪出當年應是理性的資本主義制度如何喪失其集體意識,而此現象竟與我們目前所見證的事實如此雷同。」
 
《聖路易郵報》認為《1929年大崩盤》是經濟學大師「對人類經濟史上最令人難忘歲月的精湛分析」。
 
《大西洋月刊評論》則評論說:「經濟文章很少以其娛樂價值而著稱,但這本書卻做到了。高伯瑞的文章雍容而機智,並且幽默地鞭撻了這個國家某些金融領域的智者和政策所犯的錯誤。
 
《紐約時報》盛讚:「作者以其精湛、引人入勝的筆觸,描寫那曾經席捲文化的幻想;金融家、銀行家、一廂情願的學者和漠不關心的官員故意忽視現實;以及那造成有如史詩般劇烈的大崩盤的過程。」
【作者簡介】
約翰‧高伯瑞(John Kenneth Galbraith, 1908-2006
美國二十世紀經濟學界的代表人物,曾任哈佛大學華伯格(Paul M. Warburg)經濟學講座名譽教授,擔任美國藝文學會(American Academy of Arts and Letters)、美國經濟協會(American Economic Association)主席。
19411943年:擔任美國物價管理局副局長。
1946年:杜魯門總統頒發自由勳章(Medal of Freedom
19611963年:任美國駐印度大使。
1972年被選為美國經濟協會主席。
1997年獲得加拿大的羅伯特肯尼迪圖書獎的終身成就。
20008月:柯林頓總統頒發自由勳章。
2001年:獲頒Padma Vibhushan獎(印度第二高榮譽的公民獎),以表揚其對印度和美國之間經濟合作的貢獻。
高伯瑞生前共有31本著作,包括《不確定的年代》、《富裕的社會》、《1929年大崩盤》、《經濟學與公共目標》、《穿梭經濟時光》、《新工業國》、《經濟治國》、《親愛的總統先生》、《揭開皇后的面紗:造成現代亂象的經濟學迷思》等。
【精彩內文】
第9章 因與果

  在股市大崩盤之後,緊接而來的經濟大蕭條持續了10年之久,嚴重的程度各有不同。到了1933年,國民生產毛額(經濟總產量)比1929年下降近30%。直到1937年實際的生產量才回復到1929年的水平,然後經濟又快速地回落。直到1941年,製造業的產值仍然低於1929年的水準。在1930年到1940年之間,只有1937年這一年的平均失業人數少於800萬人。1933年大約有1,300萬人失業,幾乎每四個勞工有一人失業。到1938年仍然有五分之一的人數失業。

  在這個讓人沮喪的時代,1929年就像神話般的美好。當某些產業或城市的經濟情況好轉到幾乎和1929年一樣的時候,人們期待國家也能夠回到1929年的狀況;一些有遠見的人士在某些正式的場合曾說過,「1929年是美國人曾經有過的好光景。」

  整體來說,股市大崩盤比隨後發生的經濟蕭條更容易解釋。而且在評估造成蕭條所牽涉的問題中,沒有比決定股市大崩盤應負的責任更為棘手的事情。經濟學對於這些問題仍然無法提供最終的答案。但是,我們仍然可以討論一些崩盤的原因。

1. 所得分配不均。
  在1929年,富人確實是有錢人。相關的數據並不能完全讓人滿意,但是可以確定,該年度占全美人口5%的最高收入族群,其收入大約佔所有個人所得的三分之一。個人收到的利息、股利和租金等形式的所得比例,廣泛地說,小康人家的所得大約是二次世界大戰之後幾年的兩倍。

  這種極不平等的所得分配,意謂經濟必須依賴高額投資或高級奢侈品的消費,或者依賴兩者。有錢人無法購買大量麵包等基本生活品,如果他們要處理收入所得,則必須購買奢侈品或投資新的工廠和新的計畫。投資費用和奢侈品的花費,必然比週薪25美元的工人需要支出的食物和房租,受到更多不確定因素的影響,以及呈現較大的波動。我們可以假定,1929年10月,這種高層級的消費支出和投資尤其容易受到來自股市重大消息的影響

 
2. 不良的企業結構。
  在1929年11月,股市大崩盤之後數個星期,哈佛經濟學會提出不需要擔心經濟蕭條的主要理由,它的合理判斷是「大多數的企業一向秉持的是穩重和保守的經營原則。」實際情況則是,美國企業在二○年代,對於眾多的煽動者、貪污者、騙子、冒名頂替者和詐欺者竟張開熱情的雙手擁抱他們。在這種情況長期發展下,造成洪水猛獸般侵占企業資產的風潮。

  企業最嚴重的弱點源自於控股公司和投資信託公司的龐大架構。控股公司控制了絕大部分的公用事業、鐵路公司和娛樂企業。由於投資信託公司的存在,持續對經濟形成反槓桿操作的危險。尤其是,營運公司必須以股利支付上游控股公司發行公司債的利息。如果公司無法分發股利,就意謂公司違約無法支付公司債利息、破產,以及控股架構的崩潰。在這樣的情況下,削減對營運公司的投資,以繼續分發股利的誘因顯然很大。這樣會增加通貨緊縮的壓力。其次,通貨緊縮造成收益降低,並且幫助企業簡化金字塔的結構。在發生這種情況的時候,就無法避免進一步裁減開支。收入必須指定用來償還債務,再舉債籌資進行新的投資便成為不可能的任務。很難想像如何設計出更好的企業體制,能夠繼續營運和衝出通貨緊縮的漩渦困境。

3. 不良的銀行體系。
  從三○年代早期以來,這個新世代的美國人在聽到有關二○年代晚期銀行業的做法時,真是感到又好氣又好笑,還不時義憤填膺。事實上,大部分銀行的這些做法只是因為經濟蕭條而讓人覺得荒唐可笑。原本債信非常良好的貸款,但是因為借款人的產品價格崩跌、產品市場萎縮或者申貸的抵押品跌價,而成為非常荒謬的情況。最有責任感的銀行業者,在看到貸款人面對遠超過他們所能控制的惡劣環境,而苦思如何幫助這些受害者時,卻往往被視為最差的銀行業者。像其他人一樣,銀行業者不得不屈從於當時輕率、樂觀和不道德的心態,但是很可能也就是如此而已。19291932年的經濟蕭條一開始就像以上所描述的情況,但是也損害到許多當時被認為無懈可擊的銀行聲譽。

  然而,雖然1929年的銀行業者並不是特別的愚蠢,但是銀行業的架構仍然有其先天上的缺陷,這些缺陷原本就存在於大量的獨立銀行機構。如果有一家銀行倒閉,則其他銀行的資產也會遭到凍結,而其他銀行的存款人則會競相到銀行提領他們的存款。如此一來,一家銀行的破產會導致其他銀行的破產,而形成骨牌效應。甚至在景氣最好的年代,地區性的災難或個別的管理失誤就可能啟動這樣的連鎖反應。(1929年的前6個月,全國各地有346家銀行倒閉,這些銀行的總存款餘額接近1億1,500萬美元。)當所得、就業和物價因為經濟蕭條而下跌時,銀行的破產與倒閉很快就會蔓延開來。這種情形就發生在1929年,很難想像會有比這種情況更能擴大恐懼的效應。這種恐懼不只摧毀心智薄弱的人,也會削弱心智強健人的信心。任何富人和窮人都會因為他們的儲蓄遭到侵蝕,而感覺到災難來臨了。

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