廣告

2007年11月28日 星期三

廣告打擊觀察

'Mrs. Robinson' ad shows how to reach viewers

11/28/2007

Forty years ago, "The Graduate" was released to great acclaim. In the film, Ben (Dustin Hoffman) returns home after his university graduation and falls in love with childhood friend Elaine. The final church scene in which Elaine runs away with Ben from the altar where she was about to marry another man is a classic of movie history. The film also features a memorable Simon and Garfunkel song.

I attended an all-night showing of world commercials at movie theater in Tokyo's Shinjuku district.

In one ad, Dustin Hoffman, now much older, speeds in an Audi car to a church, as the song "Mrs. Robinson" blasts.

This time, though, he is the father of the bride. He re-enacts his old scene: banging on the locked door, racing up the stairs and screaming the girl's name. She runs out of the church. In the car as they drive away, he tells her, "Just like your mother." (The commercial has not been aired on TV here.)

I saw 500 commercials that night. The annual paid event started nine years ago. About 1,000 people spent seven hours enjoying innovative commercials from 50 countries.

Some were so funny that they did not require subtitles. There were also serious ones addressing social issues such as AIDS. Either way, most of them were entertaining and I can understand why the event is popular.

Japanese commercials are usually short, lasting only 15 or 30 seconds. Perhaps because of time constraints, it is difficult to both sell products and entertain at the same time. So I felt the Japan efforts tended to rely more on the popularity of the celebrities in the ads rather than a good story that makes the commercials fun.

A recent newspaper article described a survey that found that some commercials have the opposite effect than intended because of how they are presented.

The survey, conducted by a team of researchers led by Hirobumi Sakaki, a Keio University professor of social psychology, found that 86 percent of viewers feel annoyed when commercials interrupt programs just before the show's climax. Messages like, "We will show you this dramatic ending right after a commercial break" tend to really annoy viewers.

Furthermore, 34 percent said they hate such breaks so much that they refuse to buy the advertised product.

Advertisers cannot afford to lose customers after spending so much on their commercials. Naturally, companies want to cool-headedly measure the effectiveness of their ads.

How can advertisers entertain consumers and also lure them into buying their products? They should try captivating the viewer from time to time.

--The Asahi Shimbun, Nov. 27(IHT/Asahi: November 28,2007)

从德国工业界迫默克尔向中国低头说起

德中经济 | 2007.11.27

从德国工业界迫默克尔向中国低头说起

默克尔总理会晤达赖喇嘛,直到近日中国连续取消两个部长级会晤,德中关系进入冬天以来,德国经济界基本保持沉默。现在,这个沉默被打破了,德国工业界的总 协会主席要找默克尔总理面谈改善与中国关系的问题,银行界也表示了类似的看法。此事恰发生在法国总统访华受到超热烈宣传欢迎的时间段里。两者间有关系吗? 德中经济关系真会受影响吗?德中关系何时能改善?德国之声记者综述分析如下。

德国工业界迫默克尔向中国低头

周二,德、法、英三大通讯社都引述了德国金融时报的一篇报导。这篇报导的标题叫“工业界迫默克尔向中国人磕头”。

德国联邦工业协会BDI(各领域工业协会的最高组织)主席图曼(Thumann)对该报说:“在这几周的不愉快之后,我们需要有一个建设性的对话。我相信,联邦政府会坚持以伙伴关系和互相尊敬为基础的中国政策的。”

周日,德国工业界代表们跟社民党领导层开了个会。与会者说,图曼在会上说,现在已经到了必须立即结束外交不愉快的时候了,以避免经济受到损害。联邦工业协会的领导人们打算在星期一晚上在与默克尔总理会晤时提出他们改善与中国关系、进行对话的要求。

德国金融时报还不提名地引用“一家德国大银行的高级代表”的话说:“当然存在着人权话题,但另一方面我们也有着明确的经济利益。必须当心不要让门把脚压着了。”

但是,贸易界的代表却对默克尔表示支持。德国批发外贸联邦协会主席博尔纳(Anton Boerner)说:“面对中国不能神经紧张,而必须显示坚决性。我们没有理由对中国磕头。”他还说,德中经济关系是长期性的,稳固的,不会承受不了“短期的政治不愉快。”

几个问题值得探讨

德国工业界、金融界、贸易界的表态,与近日德中 之间、法中之间的关系发展,提出了一系列的问题:一是,工业界和贸易界态度是否有不同,为什么不一样;二是,法国总统的中国之行是否对德国经济有不利影 响;三是,德中经济关系是否会受到大影响;四是,德中关系变冷,从德国方面看究竟是什么原因;五是,德中关系的冷状态会持续多久。

结合各媒体的有关报导,德国之声记者试作以下综述分析。

工业界和贸易界的态度有否不同,为何不同

工业界不反应则已,一反应就是实质性的。德国联 邦工业协会首脑们不是表个态而已,而是要跟默克尔就此面谈。可见德国工业界对此事看得不是一般的重,而是要立即看到实质性的进展的。德国联邦工业协会之所 以会如此作出如此严重反应,估计它也是受到工业界的强大压力的,包括各所属协会和大企业。

上海的贝塔斯曼书友会Bildunterschrift: 上海的贝塔斯曼书友会

贸易首脑的那番话,自然可能有个人色彩,但也可 以想象:如果德国贸易企业给了大压力,他就不会这样说。可是,德国贸易界看上去历来跟中国关系特别好,凡是欧盟有国家提出对中国反倾销提案的,德国贸易界 是反对的多。要说跟中国千丝万缕的经济关系,德国工业界有,德国贸易界不也一样有吗?

也许这里有个厉害关系不同的问题。工业界要考虑 中国的大项目,招标别受影响,在中国的那么多投资别受牵连,有求于中国的因素多。贸易界主要是从中国进口,是被求的因素多。但换个角度,反应可能又不一样 了:工业界可能在有些方面会要求欧盟对中国反倾销(比如最近的钢材),而贸易界则可能反对欧盟在一些方面对中国反倾销。

萨科奇的中国之行对德国经济利益有否影响,影响多大

这次法国总统访问中国正值德中关系急剧冷却之 际。萨克奇在行前就说了,要利用这个机会。而中国也大做文章。连日来,中国的有关报导调子非常高,非常热,甚至有超过当年科尔、施罗德访问中国时的调子的 样子。中国媒体反复地说,萨克奇上台才6个月就出访中国,为时3天,而他到俄罗斯和美国都是当天往返;所有中国媒体都大谈中法企业签署了200亿欧元的合 同。中新社的一篇报导甚至算了一笔帐:萨科奇在中国待了60多个小时,按200亿欧元计,“在华期间,每小时‘创造’的直接经济价值超过三亿欧元。”

可是,此间媒体对这件事并不那么看重。德新社驻 北京记者在他的报导中说,中国让法国建两个核电厂,绝不是因为跟德国关系不好了,做给德国看才买的。在此之前,美国公司Westinghouse还刚跟中 国签署了建四个核电厂的合同呢。这位记者还写道,购买160架空客飞机,高兴的不光是萨科奇,默克尔也会一起高兴的,因为空中客车也有德国的份。

其实,德法之间很多方面是捆在一起,很难分开的。空客正是一个好例子。当然了,默克尔访问中国时没有签这个合同,而是由萨科奇去北京时让他签,这在政治上是有一定的象征意义的,默克尔虽然从实质上没有“吃什么亏”,但面子上是丢了一些的。但也就是面子而已。

当然,并不是所有经济利益在德法之间都是共享 的。比如,如果中国把一个高速铁路大项目不是给德国,而是给法国,那就不一样了。但是,现在中国一是不太可能把好大一个项目只给一家,喜欢把包拆开了给, 而且显然每个分项目也要考虑技术因素、价格因素等许多方面,而不会为了(不是关系到生死存亡的)政治利益而牺牲自己的经济和发展利益。

德中经济关系是否会受到大影响

德国媒体对这一点其实都不太担心。其实西方国家 的媒体也是这样看的。也就是说,类似于德国批发外贸协会主席的看法:经济关系是长期的稳固的,不会受短期因素的过大影响。瑞士巴塞尔日报的一篇评论说,中 国最近还不是把一个大项目刚给了西门子吗?大众汽车在中国不是也发展得很好吗?

今天的德中之间,西方国家与中国之间的经济关系 确实已是千丝万缕,不可分割。总体上看,不存在谁有求于谁的问题,或者说,双方都有求于对方。德国和中国自然都希望保持良好的经济关系,这牵涉到德国企业 在中国的利益,也牵涉到中国企业在德国和欧洲的投资,对欧洲的出口。一般情况下,谁都不会动作过大。

当然了,从短期看,中国对德国采取一定的、象征 性大于实质性的措施的可能性是存在的。比如,如果法国跟中国关系也紧张了,中国自然可以少买空客,多买波音,或反之。还有,在中国十七大期间,西门子克虏 伯磁悬浮集团公司就“谨慎地”估计,十七大后中国可能会就磁悬浮作出决定。但十七大已经过去不少时间了,仍然没有动静,近日更有一种说法,也为德国媒体所 报导:中国考虑采取在上海采取低速(100公里时速)的磁悬浮方案。于是人们说:同济大学本来就在试验中国自己开发的低速磁悬浮。这件事情的悬而不决,甚 至“改弦易辙”,可能跟德中关系紧张会有关系,但也不一定。中国决定在上海建什么磁悬浮,是否续建磁悬浮,归根结底还是会从自己的利益出发来考虑,而不会 (完全)是由于德中政治关系。

德中关系变冷究竟是什么原因

德中关系大冷却,直接导因是默克尔会晤了达赖喇 嘛,而且是在总理府,而且在3个月前访问中国时一字未提。北京的恼火,还并非仅仅是由于默克尔会晤达赖喇嘛,还由于默克尔所在的联盟党最近搞了一个主张改 变对中国政策的所谓“中国文件”(Chinapapier)。但实际上德中关系变冷并不是从达赖喇嘛和“中国文件”才开始的。可以说,从默克尔上台以后就 开始了,只不过最近进一步恶化了。原因是什么呢?

原因之一:人的因素,或曰国家主持人的因素。中 国国际问题研究方面以往的总观念是,西方国家无论谁在台上,政策都不会有太大变化,因为决定政策的是国家的利益。这个观念从总体上说并不算错。但是,国际 政治上许多因素表明,一个国家的主持者还是对一些政策(至少表面上)是有重大影响的。以往中国研究界还有一种观念:西方偏右的党更重视经济利益,偏左的党 更重视意识形态,比如人权。这些年的许多现象偏偏证明这一点也不(完全)正确。当年施罗德上台后首次访问中国,一些德国大企业的人说,他们对施罗德去中国 不感兴趣,因为社民党不代表他们企业界的利益。后来,施罗德倒跟科尔一样的,被看成相当亲华的了,德国企业对他的看法也变了。现在,提出改变对中国政策的 偏偏不是被认为重意识形态的社民党,而是被认为更重经济利益的联盟党。还有,法国大选中萨克奇的主要对手罗亚尔女士,在竞选时就说当选后要对北京施加政治 压力,还要抵制北京奥运会,显然比默克尔更“意识形态化”。而她跟默克尔恰不是一个党派的。而萨克奇却跟默克尔“同党”。另有一点有意思的,在默克尔之 前,所有德国总理都是男性的,但无论是哪个党的,这些男性总理(施密特,科尔,施罗德)都被视为相当亲华的。那么,是否有女性和男性执政的不同因素呢?是 否因为女性更重视外观美呢?这当然是姑妄说之,但这个现象(也许是偶然的)至少是有点意思的。

常态的证明:上海的德国餐馆 Bildunterschrift: 常态的证明:上海的德国餐馆 原 因之二:经济关系常态化。退一步说,如果当总理的不是默克尔,而是施托伊贝尔或者施泰因迈尔,德国跟中国的关系就会跟施罗德时期一样,甚至更好吗?不见 得。这里还有一些更深层次的原因。其中一个就是:德国与中国的经济关系已经发生了潜移默化的变化。几年前,十几年前,中国是一个西方世界经济界开拓的对 象,而中国积极拉来自全世界的投资,虚心向西方学习方方面面的经验,尤其是经济方面的。现在呢?对境外来投资企业的优惠政策正在取消,中国企业开始向境外 投资,且规模将越来越大。可以说,从多多拿来的阶段转入了来往均衡的、相对平等的阶段了,换句话说,中国跟西方,包括跟德国的经济关系已经常态化了。这种 经济关系的变化必然会给政治关系带来一种潜移默化的影响。简单地举个例子:现在德国企业到中国去投资的势头不减,但不用政治界再化大力气托一把了,就跟到 美国、日本去投资没有什么区别了。

原因之三:中国的地位变了,地位之间的关系变 了。经过最近十几年此不长彼大长的发展,中国已经不再是真正意义上的发展中国家。虽然在人均收入上还落后西方国家很多,但在总体实力上已经至少是平等的 了。巨量的税收,最大的外汇储备,这些都让人觉得,现在已经不是中国需要帮助,而是它可以解决自己国内的经济问题,也有余力来帮助其他人的时候了。今年中 国经济总量就将超出德国,最迟明年还将夺走德国的世界出口冠军地位。在军事上,尖端科学方面,中国能把卫星打下来了,探月卫星也上了轨道了。这么一个地位 变化,也在西方广大民众心中留下了一个深刻的印象。不管什么人怎么说,观点可以有不同,但大家都有一个看法:中国现在是伙伴兼对手,或者不是伙伴就是对手 了。这对西方国家对中国的政策自然是有深刻影响的。简单说:以前科尔、施罗德等人亲中国,会被一些人看成同情与帮助弱者,帮助第三世界,在意识形态方面忽 略一些,媒体和公众也没有太多看法;但现在的默克尔如果跟以前的施罗德一样亲中国,是否会被看成拍马屁呢?反倒是强硬一些,更重视人权等意识形态问题,更 符合民意呢?可能的。这甚至也许是根本性的原因。

德中关系的冷状态会持续多久

德国媒体一种看法是,德中之间短期内不可能热起来了。但是谁也不认为德中之间会冷得过分。

德中之间冷得过分是不太可能的,那对双方都是硬 伤。中国这次对德国采取一系列“冷冻措施”,其实已经赢了分了。最明显的例子一是萨克齐拒绝接见达赖,二是教皇取消了与达赖的会晤。这实际上应该是中国对 德国冷的直接目的所在。许多德国媒体的分析都说,中国就是怕世界各国学德国和加拿大的样子。进一步采取对德国的冷措施,其实已经没有必要。

但德中之间重新热起来,也是不太可能的。默克尔不可能在意识形态方面180度大转弯。而中国也不会认为需要跟德国过于套近乎。反正生意归生意做。中国对德国可能会采取一种不冷不热的态度,这种态度可能会至少持续到德国下次大选。

但是,话说回来了,由于经济关系常态化和中国地 位变化这上述两大原因,即使下次德国大选会有什么大变化(目前看来不象会有多大变化),德中之间的关系也不太可能恢复到施罗德、科尔那个程度了。其实,整 个西方世界与中国的关系都会是这样的:不会太冷,不会太热,经常会有磨擦,磨擦还会越来越多。今年以来,中国“有毒商品”的遭遇、“中国黑客”的热炒,已 经显示了今后西方与中国之间的一种可能会成为常态的东西。除非中国在政治上,人权上,意识形态上有较大的变化,从而逐步走到相当于美欧关系那样的全面伙伴 关系的地步。但这在短期内也是没有迹象的。

至于周一图曼等人跟默克尔谈了什么,并没有透露出来。但可以预料,默克尔会表示,她会努力改善跟中国关系的。这个态她已表过。至于德国方面会采取什么措施,倒是接下来值得关注的问题。

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平心

2007年11月26日 星期一

One Laptop Per Child 出師不利乎?

WSJ特寫
小電腦 大雄心
大 | 中 | 小
2007年11月26日17:55
尼古拉斯•尼葛洛龐帝(Nicholas Negroponte)在2005年曾雄心勃勃的向世人宣佈他要填補發達國家與發展中國家的技術差距。他的想法非常簡單﹐就是要在4年內設計出一種只賣100美元的筆記本電腦﹐並讓全世界1.5億落後國家的在校兒童人手一部。

一時間﹐全球各國領導人和企業讚助商紛紛表示要支持這項名為“一個孩子一部電腦”(One Laptop Per Child)的非盈利計劃。這位痳省理工學院(MIT)教授搞得全世界的發展中國家都信誓旦旦的表示﹐要大量購買這種電腦。

但3 年時間過去了﹐只有大約2000名參加該項目試點的學生得到了這種電腦。訂單方面只有來自烏拉圭的10萬部訂單還算像點樣。不過據尼葛洛龐帝稱﹐與秘魯已基本談成一筆25萬部訂單。這種電腦本月在中國首次開始量產﹐第一批規模是30萬部。然而﹐其中卻有好幾萬部是準備賣給美國消費者的。看來尼葛洛龐帝是無法完成在2008年讓全世界1.5億貧困兒童用上筆記本電腦的心願了。

某種程度而言﹐尼葛洛龐帝的這項宏偉計劃是被其自身的影響力拖了後腿。原因是這項“100美元筆記本”計劃威脅到盈利性企業的利益﹐於是他們紛紛開發自己的廉價機型﹐導致尼葛洛龐帝陷入與英特爾(Intel Corp.)、微軟(Microsoft Corp.)的Windows操作系統等知名品牌的激烈競爭中。

然而尼葛洛龐帝的雄心卻在以另一種方式變成現實。貧困國家的確在為本國的兒童採購廉價筆記本電腦﹐只不過不像他預想的那樣普遍。而且﹐現在這些貧困國家有好幾種備選的機型﹐這使得尼葛洛龐帝的OLPC計劃有因力小勢微而被邊緣化的危險。
按照尼葛洛龐帝對同事所說的﹐他不是一位好的售貨員﹐不過他善於推銷自己的理念。

尼葛洛龐帝最近接受採訪時表示﹐在他看來﹐如果明年底之前能有3,000萬兒童用上我的競爭對手生產的筆記本電腦﹐那可以說是我的一大勝利。我立下這一目標並非為了自己賣電腦﹐OLPC並非一項業務﹐它屬於教育事業。

從一開始﹐OLPC計劃就對壟斷個人電腦市場的軟件巨頭微軟和晶片巨頭英特爾構成了威脅。尼葛洛龐帝從麻省理工帶出來的團隊設計的筆記本電腦並未採用這兩家公司的產品﹐而是用了Linux系統和其他非專利、開放源代碼的軟件﹐這樣用戶自己就可以改造這些軟件。

像英特爾這樣向來不自己銷售電腦的公司﹐竟然在去年面向發展中國家推出了一款名為“Classmate”的小型筆記本電腦﹐目前的售價在每台230至300 美元。英特爾雖然沒打算在這款產品上掙錢﹐但仍在營銷上下了很大力氣﹐其原因在於﹕尼葛洛龐帝設計的電腦選用了高級微設備公司(Advanced Micro Devices)的晶片﹐而英特爾要阻止AMD晶片成為發展中市場的標準配置。

尼葛洛龐帝和他手下20名成員組成的團隊設計出了一種耐用、新穎的筆記本電腦﹐並配以易於學習的軟件。這款綠白相間的機型小巧玲瓏﹐設計耗電量非常小﹐只需一塊小型太陽能電池就能維持運轉。它不但防水防塵﹐且其獨特的高分辨率顯示屏即使在陽光直射時也能看得一清二楚。此外﹐它還安裝了內置的攝像頭和無線網卡。

不過項目也遇到了困難。雖然尼葛洛龐帝和他的團隊成功設計出了比其他筆記本電腦更便宜的機器﹐但實踐證明﹐100美元的目標難度還是很大的。目前這款電腦的價格是每台188美元 ﹐還要外加運費。而發展中國家的潛在買家對教師培訓和售後服務等方面還存有顧慮。尼葛洛龐帝的想法是把機器做得足夠簡單﹐讓學生自學﹐並自己解決各種小故障。

一些潛在買家開始打退堂鼓了。利比亞政府原打算採購最多120萬部電腦﹐但他們現在對機器沒用Windows系統、售後服務、培訓和未來的產品升級等方面都存在顧慮。

利比亞技術顧問委員會主席穆罕默德•巴尼(Mohamed Bani)說﹐英特爾的電腦要比OLPC的電腦好很多。我們不想讓自己的國家變成這種機器的垃圾場。該委員會沒有採購電腦的決定權。不過利比亞最近決定採購至少15萬部英特爾Classmates電腦。現在OLPC計劃可謂前景難料。

尼葛洛龐帝現年63歲﹐是一位電腦科學專家和資深科技業投資人。麻省理工的媒體實驗室正是由他聯合發起成立﹐他還曾擔任該實驗室的負責人。此外他還參與創辦了Wired雜誌。他是摩托羅拉(Motorola Inc.)董事會成員﹔最近﹐在新聞集團(News Corp.)與《華爾街日報》母公司道瓊斯(Dow Jones & Co.)達成收購協議後﹐他被任命為一個旨在保護道瓊斯新聞報導獨立性的委員會的成員。



尼葛洛龐帝2005年1月在瑞士達沃斯出席世界經濟論壇(World Economic Forum)時宣佈了他的100美元筆記本計劃﹐並稱這將改善不發達國家在校兒童的教育狀況﹐並有助於減少貧困。他當時預言﹐到2008年底將在全世界發展中國家售出1億至1.5億台此類電腦。

谷歌(Google Inc.)、高級微設備和新聞集團等公司分別提供了200萬美元資金。2005年11月﹐時任聯合國秘書長的科菲•安南(Kofi Annan)公開表示支持這一理念﹐他展示了一個由手搖柄驅動的早期機型﹐這個功能後來被放棄了。

在7 個月前的一次演示會上﹐尼葛洛龐帝表示將努力在2007年從各國拿到250萬台筆記本電腦的訂單。但他在最近一次採訪中說﹐負責生產的台灣廣達電腦 (Quanta Computer Inc.)今年只出了30萬台。在本月的一次會議上﹐他說他2008年的最新目標是每個月生產100萬台﹐但他又說﹐他不能確定什么時候能達到這一目標。

由於最初的產量低於預期﹐該項目沒有實現預期的規模效益。設計升級(增加內存、採用速度更快的微處理器)也推高了價格﹐顯然影響了該項目的銷售。

以尼日利亞為例﹐該國迄今仍未兌現其前總統的諾言﹕購買100萬台筆記本電腦。出生於尼日利亞的科技企業家湯米•戴維斯(Tomi Davies)說﹐部分原因在於這些電腦的售價並不是每台100美元。戴維斯曾幫助尼葛洛龐帝安排與尼日利亞政府官員的會談。

偏高的價格讓這種筆記本在與基於Windows的傳統電腦的競爭中居於劣勢。戴維斯說﹕“人們會毫不猶豫地選擇微軟的產品。”

OLPC計劃面臨來自台灣、印度和以色列等地銷售商的競爭﹐他們銷售低價的Windows筆記本電腦﹐將發展中國家的10多億潛在年輕客戶視為巨大的商機。

到目前為止﹐英特爾是OLPC產品最大的競爭對手。英特爾推出成本低廉的Classmate機型﹐惹得尼葛洛龐帝指責該公司試圖破壞他的非盈利初衷。英特爾曾向OLPC計劃捐款數百萬美元﹐並於7月加入了OLPC管理委員會。

然而﹐因特爾仍繼續與這個非贏利項目競爭﹐且大有勝出的跡象。最近該公司達成交易﹐在尼日利亞、利比亞和巴基斯坦銷售數萬台Classmate電腦。這些正是尼葛洛龐帝寄予期望的國家。英特爾已在這些國家實施了一係列試點計劃﹐並聲稱將捐贈數萬台電腦﹐供另外的至少22個國家試用。

最近幾個月﹐尼葛洛龐帝已經放棄他當初的一個目標──讓阿根廷、巴西、利比亞、尼日利亞、巴勒斯坦和泰國這6個發展中國家分別購買100萬台筆記本電腦。這個項目開始接受規模很小的定單﹐並試圖說服意大利和西班牙等較為富裕的國家出錢為窮國購買筆記本電腦。

隨著銷售問題日漸嚴重﹐該項目最近改變了不向美國用戶銷售的做法。11月12日﹐該項目開始以399美元兩台的價格在美國和加拿大市場銷售。這次銷售的口號是“買一送一”﹐即在買主得到一台電腦的同時﹐某個窮國的孩子也將得到一台。活動原本為期兩週﹐但上週四OLPC稱將延續到12月31號﹐原因是“人們想要更多的時間參與”。尼葛洛龐帝說﹐活動頭9天共收到約45,000份買一送一的定單﹐其中半數是在第一天收到的。

供應商對預測錯誤和銷量低於預期的情況頗有怨言。台灣奇美集團(Chi Mei Group)的Scott Soong說﹕“我們當然希望他們多定購些。”奇美集團是OLPC筆記本顯示器製造商﹐也是OLPC董事會成員之一。據知情人士透露﹐生產筆記本的廣達電腦也很失望﹐今年早些時候該公司被告知首批將會有500-800萬台的定單。

尼葛洛龐帝談到與廣達和其他供應商的摩擦時說﹕“我們都對彼此很不滿。每個人都窩了一肚子火。”

他似乎對英特爾最為不滿﹐後者的海外銷售團隊在尼日利亞和蒙古大肆宣傳Classmate﹐在廣告資料中稱Classmate優於其他同類筆記本電腦。他在最近一次採訪中說﹕“這些並非孤立的個案﹐而是一直如此。”

本月﹐尼葛洛龐帝在MIT會見了馬其頓政府的代表﹐他得知後者也在考慮試用Classmate電腦﹐於是決定放棄授權在馬其頓進行試點。他對這些官員說﹐他不想參加“烤麵包大賽”。

尼葛洛龐帝說﹐他本月與英特爾首席執行長歐德寧(Paul Otellini)進行了溝通﹐要求英特爾停止銷售Classmate電腦。據英特爾發言人說﹐公司拒絕了這個要求﹐公司認為市場有足夠空間容納大量電腦。

尼葛洛龐帝說﹐最初是因為他在柬埔寨和其他一些發展中國家實施教育項目的經歷激發了OLPC想法的雛形﹐在那些地方﹐他看到電腦能激勵孩子們學習和探索課堂之外的世界。

2005 年11月﹐尼葛洛龐帝和安南一起在突尼斯召開的聯合國技術大會上展示了一台樣機。聯合國開發計劃署(U.N. Development Program)高級技術顧問贊布拉諾(Raul Zambrano)說﹐這是整個峰會的主要亮點。聯合國開發計劃署為發展中國家提供援助﹐在此次大會上與尼葛洛龐帝共用一個展台。贊布拉諾回憶說﹐人們拿著現金過來說﹐“我現在就想買﹗”

OLPC只有大約20名員工是領工資的﹐而尼葛洛龐帝不再其中。過去3年中的大部分時間﹐他與世界各國政府首腦會面﹐向他們宣傳自己的計劃。2006年年中OLPC管理人員稱﹐尼日利亞、巴西、阿根廷和泰國已做出承諾﹐每個國家將購買100萬台OLPC電腦﹐但該機構後來又收回了這一說法。2006年10月﹐《紐約時報》報導稱利比亞已同意在2008年6月前購買120萬台。

英特爾和微軟的管理人士在公開場合都毫不掩蓋他們對OLPC電腦的不屑。2005年12月﹐英特爾董事長貝瑞特(Craig R. Barrett)將OLPC的一個早期機型稱為“100美元的小玩意”﹐認為它不太可能獲得成功。在2006年3月召開的一次大會上﹐微軟董事長蓋茨 (Bill Gates)說﹐至少該弄個還過得去的電腦﹐讓你能清楚地看到字、而且不用坐在那裡一邊打字一邊還要費勁搖手柄。

今年﹐蓋茨在中國宣佈微軟將向發展中國家提供3美元軟件包﹐其中包括Windows操作系統、學生版Office軟件以及教學課程。尼葛洛龐帝表示﹐蓋茨此舉是正面應對OLPC計劃的。微軟Unlimited Potential Group總經理烏茨施耐德(James Utzschneider)否認了這一點。 Unlimited Potential Group是一個面向發展中國家青少年的發展計劃。

烏茨施耐德說﹐利比亞和埃及計劃購買微軟的3美元軟件包。在此之前﹐尼葛洛龐帝曾希望向這兩個國家出售安裝Linux的OLPC電腦。烏茨施耐德說俄羅斯的一個組織已與微軟簽訂了協議﹐將購買至少20萬套這種軟件包﹐最多有可能購買100萬。他說﹐俄羅斯人開始階段將把這款軟件包安裝到台灣華碩電腦 (Asustek Computer)生產的低成本筆記本電腦上。華碩也是OLPC計劃的一個競爭對手。

截至今年春天﹐尼葛洛龐帝與世界各國簽訂的總數達數百萬台的非正式採購協議似乎都已化為泡影。

曾經支持該計劃的泰國總理他信已在軍事政變中被推翻。在尼日利亞幫助宣傳OLPC的湯米•戴維斯說﹐尼日利亞也在重新考慮這個問題﹐原因之一是因為這種電腦的價格不斷上升。上個月﹐英特爾董事長貝瑞特訪問了尼日利亞﹐並宣佈英特爾將向該國學校捐贈3,000台Classmate電腦﹐並對15萬名教師進行培訓﹐幫助他們在教學中使用Classmate電腦。

OLPC駐尼日利亞的律師庫薩莫圖(Ayo Kusamotu)抱怨道﹕“我們無法(與英特爾)競爭。我們剛一收到一些購買意向﹐他們(英特爾)就會加大銷售力度。”尼日利亞最近同意購買1.7萬台英特爾Classmate電腦。

5 月份﹐尼葛洛龐帝現身哥倫比亞廣播公司(CBS)“60分鐘”節目﹐猛烈抨擊了英特爾﹐指出英特爾試圖把非營利機構OLPC逼到絕境。英特爾董事長貝瑞特稱這種想法是“不理智”的。兩個月後﹐英特爾宣佈將加入OLPC董事會。尼葛洛龐帝表示﹐雙方的協議包括一條“互不詆毀”條款﹐雙方承諾不批評對方。

英特爾負責Classmate銷售的約翰•戴維斯(John Davies)說﹐在那期“60分鐘”節目播出之後﹐英特爾決定“清理”任何將這兩種互相競爭的筆記本電腦進行直接比較的營銷資料。但上個月﹐一位英特爾的代表向蒙古國政府官員做了一次演示﹐其中包括Classmate和OLPC電腦的詳細比較。該演示材料的副本顯示﹐英特爾稱在13個比較項目中 ﹐Classmate有9個優於OLPC﹐包括處理速度和對不同操作系統的支持性。

英特爾的戴維斯表示﹐這次演示違反了公司政策。他說﹐有時確實會有“漏網之魚”﹐他會對銷售人員進行“再培訓”。

尼葛洛龐帝說﹐他兩週前向英特爾的首席執行長投訴此事﹐雙方後來達成了和解。他說﹐英特爾和OLPC計劃已同意在明年1月份之前合作設計一款安裝英特爾芯片的新型OLPC電腦。一位英特爾發言人證實了他的這種說法﹐但表示現在發表任何評論都為時過早。OLPC目前使用的是AMD的芯片﹐AMD拒絕就此發表評論。

目前還沒有跡象顯示尼葛洛龐帝的計劃有撐不下去的危險。OLPC財務及運營總監羅伯特•費德爾(Robert Fadel)說﹐該計劃有足以維持數年的資金。今年它的幾十家贊助企業共貢獻了1,650萬美元﹐而銷售一台電腦將需要大約1美元的行政成本。去年﹐該項目收入760萬美元﹐大部分來自捐贈者﹐今年的預算大約為950萬美元。一份內部文件顯示﹐截至9月份﹐OLPC手上共有870萬美元現金。

但OLPC 仍面臨來自目標受眾的懷疑之聲。本月在馬薩諸塞為來自發展中國家的教師和技術專員舉辦的一次培訓大會上﹐與會者向尼葛洛龐帝和其他OLPC管理人員提出了大量關於教師培訓和軟件缺陷的問題。尼葛洛龐帝告訴他們﹐軟件缺陷永遠不會消失﹐軟件永遠不會達到完美境地。他還說自己幾乎每天早上都要與安裝 Window操作系統的電腦“較量”一番。

之後﹐在與盧旺達一個團體的私下會面中﹐尼葛洛龐帝宣佈即將交付2萬台筆記本電腦﹐這些電腦是 “買一送一”計劃的一部分。盧旺達信息技術主管部門Information Technology Authority的烏姆特斯(Carine Umutesi)問道﹐如果電腦出現故障﹐誰能提供維修服務。

尼葛洛龐帝說﹐邁阿密無線設備分銷商Brightstar Corp.會提供一些早期技術支持。他說﹐至於幾年之後由誰提供技術支持﹐這是個“令人恐懼的問題”。他表示﹐學生們需要盡可能維護好電腦。

Steve Stecklow / James Bandler

2007年11月23日 星期五

德国政府机构浪费惊人

(hc案: 這篇報導有意思 好玩 可能還只是表面說法而已.....)


德国经济 | 2007.11.23

德国政府机构浪费惊人

德国联邦审计署新近公布一份报告称,从能源到机构设置,联邦政府仍浪费巨额纳税人血汗钱,对公民而言,政府实难称好榜样

联邦政府对其建筑物能源耗费情况缄口不 言,让联邦审计署十分不满。审计长恩格尔斯日前在公布年度审计报告时指出,政府自然应该要求每一家每一户公民节约能源,但政府本身却几乎不提供有关联邦所 属建筑物的能源消耗数据,让外界无法知晓那些能源浪费大户。恩格尔斯表示,他的机构将展开调查,并向联邦议院提交调查结果。

如何浪费

根据审计署公布的2006年审计报告,联邦政府 对其所属建筑物能耗的经济性不是完全没有检查,就是检查不力。其中,85%的措施在未经经济效益考量的情况下获得批准。审计局对这些措施所涉及的4万个对 象进行了严格检查。检查结果显示,仅此一项,联邦政府浪费的税收就高达19亿欧元,从而延续了多年来年复一年的倾向。

报告例举弗劳恩霍夫协会的一个项目,揭露联邦政府如何浪费。该协会原计划增设的一个60平方米的阅览室竟盖成一座三层庞大建筑,并且还有“虽漂亮但实属多余的平台”。

另一个例子是,联邦退休金保险公司计划在位于柏林维尔莫斯多夫的总部增盖总投资1.8亿欧元的两座大楼。如果去掉那些多余的房间、空地、天井、奢华的墙面和透明电梯,该项目的投资预算本可以减少三分之一。

报告指出,缺乏对经济效益的检查是联邦债务继续增加的一大因素,继续构成结构上的一大弱点。尽管收入增加,2006年,联邦财政赤字却攀升至9300亿欧元,为90年代初的3倍。

造成债务继续增加的另一个重要原因是多个联邦州对查缉偷漏税行为工作掉以轻心。据此,审计长恩格尔斯敦促联邦地方分权委员会就实现有效的“借贷刹车”原则措施达成一致。

政府反驳

对审计署的诟病,联邦政府有关部门大不以为然。 它们反驳说,审计署并不真正了解情况。其一,许多工作人员是在租赁的办公楼工作。其二,随着工作程序改变,需要更为灵活的建筑,以便能够迅速并更便宜地加 以改建。其三,联邦办公楼使用了地热。因而,审计署的批评缺乏根据,云云。

联邦国防军成为最受审计署青睐的检查对象。审计署内专管联邦国防军的部门多达6个,而审计其他联邦部级单位的一般则只有一个部门。

联邦审计署在国防军那里发现了一项令人哭笑不得的类似无底洞的开支项目:一个用于检验武器系统的耗资1600万欧元的目标模拟大厅不能投入使用,原因是,演示实际目标的投影墙被油“氤氲”了,而这些油是在那里试验的武器“滋”到投影墙上去的。

为清洗投影墙上的油污,联邦国防军购买了用南非产肉牛耳毛做的刷子,耗资100万欧元。岂料,这一工具毫无用处。于是,国防军计划耗资240万欧元,再盖一个试验厅,在那里试验的武器射击前将被清洗干净。

迄今,导致投影墙不能投入使用的问题依然没有解决。

不过,若与欧洲战斗机项目造成的巨额开支相比,投影墙的浪费可算是小巫见大巫:审计署报告指出,“计划中的欧洲战斗机大队的组建已经多开销了12亿欧元”。

WHO’s counting HIV ?








(bbc)全球感染HIV估計人數下調至3300萬
愛滋病患兒
非洲仍然是愛滋病感染的重災區

聯合國和世界衛生組織的愛滋病專家說,2007年全球感染人類免疫缺陷病毒(Human Immunodeficiency Virus, HIV)的人的估計數目從接近4,000萬人下調到3,300萬人左右。

專家們說,因數據採集過程作出調整,全球愛滋病毒感染者減少主要應歸因於印度愛滋病患者的報告數量此前作了下調。

聯合國和世衛組織說,儘管全球每天新增6,800個新病例和有5,700名患者死亡,但新增的愛滋病感染病例和愛滋病患者死亡的總數有所下降。

愛滋病病毒通過血液傳播,主要傳播途徑包括性傳播、共用注射工具和母嬰傳播。

非洲仍然是愛滋病感染的重災區,而亞洲部分地區則是愛滋病感染增長最快的地方。

非洲撒哈拉沙漠以南的地方約有2,250萬人感染愛滋病,新感染病例約為每年170萬,比上一年略微增長。

亞洲情況

毫無疑問,我們已開始看到投資回報。
聯合國愛滋病規劃署執行主任皮澳特
亞洲共有490萬人感染愛滋病,而越南自2000年以來感染愛滋病的人數已增加了1倍。

聯合國愛滋病規劃署執行主任皮澳特博士說,數據採集過程改善後的數字使人們對亞洲愛滋病的狀況有了更清晰的瞭解,這說明這裡面既有挑戰也有機會。

他說:"毫無疑問,我們已開始看到投資回報。"

他表示,"可我們必須加大努力,大大減少愛滋病對全球的影響。"

聯合國說,估計2007年會新增250萬名愛滋病患者,210萬人因愛滋病而死。

因數據採集過程獲得改進,今年的全球愛滋病患者估計數量被調整為3,320萬名,較去年預測的3,950萬名減少630萬。

聯合國愛滋病規劃署表示,2006年的愛滋病患者數字並太準確,因為印度愛滋病患者的報告數量比原來估計的人數要少。

專家們說,2006年的愛滋病患者數字更可能接近3,270萬名。


AIDS

WHO’s counting?

Nov 20th 2007
From Economist.com

Not as bad an epidemic as once seemed


Photodisc

ON THE face of things, a fall in the number of people infected with HIV (the virus that causes AIDS) from 39.5m to 33.2m over the course of a single year should be cause for rejoicing. That is the news from this year’s AIDS epidemic update from the World Health Organisation (WHO) and UNAIDS published on Tuesday November 20th. Indeed, it is good news, for it means there are fewer people to treat, and fewer to pass the infection on, than was previously thought. But the fall is not a real fall. Rather, it is due to a change in the way the size of the epidemic is estimated.

Factor that change in and the number of infected individuals has actually risen since last year, by 500,000. And even that is not necessarily bad news in the paradoxical world of AIDS. As treatment programmes are installed around the world, death rates are falling. According to the revised figures, the peak, of 2.2m a year, was in 2005. Now the figure is 2.1m. Since the only way for an infected person to drop out of the statistics in reality (as opposed to by sleight of statistical hand) is for him to die, such increased survivorship inevitably pushes up the total size of the epidemic.

The best news of all, however, is that the new figures confirm what had previously been suspected—that the epidemic has peaked. The highest annual number of new infections around the world was 3.4m in 1998. That figure has now fallen to 2.5m.

Both the change in the death rate and the change in the infection rate are partly a consequence of the natural flow and ebb of any epidemic infection. But the changes are also a reflection of the hard graft of public-health workers in many countries, which has persuaded people to modify or abandon risky behaviour, such as having unprotected sex, and has also created the medical infrastructure needed to distribute anti-retroviral drugs that can keep symptoms at bay in those who do become infected.

The revision of the figures is mainly a result of better data-collection methods, particularly in India (which accounts for half the downward revision) and five African countries (which account for another fifth). In India many more sampling points have been established, and in all countries better survey methods, relying on surveyors knocking on doors rather than asking questions at clinics, have gathered data from more representative samples of the population.

Sceptics will feel vindicated by the revision. There has been a feeling around for a while that the older survey methods were biased, and that the inflation thus produced was tolerated because it helped twang the heart-strings of potential donors. However, the structures for collecting and distributing money to combat AIDS are now well established, and accurate data are crucial if that money is not to be misdirected.

The new information also means that the goal of treatment for all who need it will be easier and cheaper to achieve. The WHO and UNAIDS are planning to publish a report on the matter early next year, but Paul De Lay, UNAIDS’s director of evidence, monitoring and policy, says that the financial requirements for 2010 will probably be about 5% less than previously estimated, and by 2015 that figure will have risen to 10%. Good news for everyone, then, donors and sufferers alike.


2007年11月20日 星期二

看電影能學管理嗎?

2007年11月20日 星期二

看電影能學管理嗎?

美國電影的智慧與淺薄--道聽途說 之一



今天還未接到張華兄的
旅美筆記
甚念


我這封要excite他一下
我剛剛讀了一則"美國文化批評"--如附
才知道美國電視
The Apprentice


The Apprentice is a television franchise that originated in 2004 in the United States. As originally conceived, the show depicted a group of 15-18 businessmen and -women competing in an elimination-style competition for a one-year, $250,000 job of running one of host and executive producer Donald Trump 's companies. The Apprentice was developed by Mark Burnett, who successfully brought Survivor to the US. Since its premiere, the show has spawned many licensed international versions as well as several imitations. The show allegedly popularized the catch phrase, "You're Fired!"



這讓我有許多的聯想
上周我在嘉義的台灣中油訓練所
我與主任談許多
我了解到明年有中正大學的老師要開
"看電影學管理"

過去十年 我知道永和社區大學和中原的王晃三教務長等等都開過類似的課程


電影是綜合藝術 最不能忽視

不過 我們要感謝下文作者跟我們說thinking 更重要


Let's give thanks for our brains - and let's use them

3M Shelves Six Sigma in R&D

3M Shelves Six Sigma in R&D

3M is largely abandoning Six Sigma in research and development




For the past two years, 3M Corp. has been giving back freedom and decision-making to its researchers following four years of Six Sigma mania under former CEO and Chairman W. James McNerney Jr. Six Sigma is a data-driven methodology and associated toolset for eliminating process defects. Its design component is known as Design for Six Sigma.

“We got a little tool happy (under McNerney),” says 3M Research Chief Larry Wendling, staff vice president, 3M Corp. Research Labs.

While 3M emerged financially stronger from the McNerney era, many long-time 3M researchers, engineers and scientists chafed under the strictures of Six Sigma. Critics argue that excessive metrics, steps, measurements and Six Sigma’s intense focus on reducing variability water down the discovery process. Under Six Sigma, the free-wheeling nature of brainstorming and the serendipitous side of discovery is stifled. Proponents contend such methodologies’ rules keep researchers on track and accountable for producing. Striking the right balance between the application of Six Sigma and unencumbered research is often seen as key.

What makes 3M different from other companies that struggle with how much to reign in researchers and scientists is its size ($24B) and that it relies heavily on continuously commercializing such a diverse set of new technologies. McNerney’s critics at 3M were thrilled to see him take the Boeing CEO job in 2005. McNerney’s impact on 3M’s longstanding culture of innovation is chronicled in a June 11, 2007 article in BusinessWeek magazine.

Under McNerney’s successor, 3M CEO George Buckley has de-emphasized Six Sigma in R&D. At the same time, R&D spending in 2007 has been increased by 11 percent over 2006. “3M is a technology company so it’s essential that we keep investing in and creating new technology and product platforms,” Buckley reaffirmed in October. After all, 3M is the company that brought us Post-It Notes, Thinsulate, Scotchgard and Scotch Tape. What’s more, consumers are generally unaware that many complex and sophisticated innovations come out of 3M in areas as diverse as digital dentistry to “Confirm Laminate” that makes it easier to detect counterfeit passports.

“George is throttling back in the laboratory and in R&D. At the same time, he’s a very strong proponent of lean Six Sigma in manufacturing and our supply chain,” according to Wendling. “Six Sigma has a place, but more in what I’d call transactional activities as opposed to basic research and product development. The key is to selectively use what makes sense in R&D, but not let Six Sigma become the end. For instance, we use (Six Sigma) design of experiments routinely in basic research,” Wendling says. Wendling, who celebrated his 30th year with 3M in September, reports to Dr. Fred J. Palensky, executive vice president, Research and Development and 3M’s chief technology officer (CTO).

Experts agree the blanket approach to Six Sigma is generally not a good idea — at least at a company like 3M.

“These TQM (Total Quality Management) and class of methodologies that are anchored on reducing variability are inversely associated with what we call exploratory innovation. Methodologies help incremental innovation. The more you apply them in R&D, the less effective they are on exploratory innovation,” says Michael Tushman, a professor at Harvard Business School. “There is a place for Six Sigma, but for targeted pieces of the innovation portfolio.”

3M researchers still use elements of a Six Sigma toolset called DMAIC, which stands for design, measure, analyze, improve and control. Since 2000, 58,000 projects at 3M have used some element of DMAIC and more than 55,000 3M employees have achieved the minimum level “Green Belt” training, according to a 3M spokeswoman. An alphabet soup of variants similar to DMAIC have been adopted by other companies.

“DMAIC works, but within boundaries. At its simplest, the assumptions as to cause/effect and repeatability that lies behind the various process methods including Six Sigma mean they only work in fairly ordered situations (manufacturing, order processing, etc). Move outside of that and they are doomed to fail,” says David Snowden, founder and chief scientific officer at Cognitive Edge, a consulting firm in the U.K.

Academics and consultants will forever debate the merits and drawbacks of Six Sigma in R&D, but the methodology can be all but transparent to customers. Phil Overholt, a Dept. of Energy program manager, worked with 3M on the company’s new composite aluminum power transmission technology that reduces heat causing conventional power lines to sag.

“They tended toward the ideal, were extremely thorough in their methods and did their homework. They stayed on schedule and that is not always done,” says Overholt.

Ron Atkinson, board chairman of the American Society for Quality, is a strong proponent of Design for Six Sigma. Atkinson, a mechanical and industrial engineer, is also an executive with an auto maker.
“I usually find that once (companies) understand it, Six Sigma aligns very well with engineering methodology. Six Sigma makes sure projects relate right back to the strategic plan of the company,” says Atkinson. Is paralysis by analysis a concern? “(Project) champions can counteract that. They make sure you do not sit on the design phase forever. And there’s nothing to say you have to finish one step before you start the next.” He believes pure research does not lend itself to Six Sigma, but is more the stuff of universities and federally funded projects.

For years, the measure of successful innovation at 3M was the percentage of products in the marketplace that were new or less than 5 years old. Indeed, the BusinessWeek article claimed the percentage of 3M’s new products in the marketplace had slipped from one-third to a quarter of its total. That metric, according to Wendling, is not a true gauge of success; hence, the company’s decision to abandon it seven years ago (or not make it public anymore).

“We have chosen not to share the percentage of new products externally because it’s too complex and people will take it and interpret in their own fashion. The proper metrics for new products really depends on what industry and business you’re in. If you’re in the electronics business where products have a very short lifecycle, you probably need 100 percent new products every three years. But if you’re in the pharmaceutical industry where it takes 10 or 15 years to develop a new product, you have a totally different metric. Think about the diversity of 3M’s business and just adding these things up and coming up with number really isn’t a very good metric. That’s why we went away from that metric,” says Wendling.

Then how does 3M measure the conversion of products developed in the lab into marketplace hits? The answer more than suggests McNerney’s emphasis on top and bottom-line left a deep impression on today’s 3Mers.

“For us, the true metric is: Are we growing at the rate we need to be growing and are new products making their contribution to that growth? In the end, that’s all that counts. I could have these 40 percent (new products) every four years and if the company isn’t growing and meeting our growth targets, my metric is very hollow. The important thing is the company is growing in its top line revenue according to plan and is the new product component making its contribution.”

(For the most recent quarter, 3M’s top and bottom lines grew 5.5 and 7.4 percent respectively. By any measure, 3M is healthy with two of its five main units reporting double-digit growth. Growing at 21 percent, Health Care is the star performer. Display and Graphics was the laggard at 2 percent.)

Wendling is careful to emphasize that research at 3M is aimed at creating commercial products and solving customer problems. For example, Wendling has 700 researchers in his group, but is reluctant to say they focus purely on basic research. “I would not characterize (them) as blue sky (researchers) because they really are connected to the business.” His researchers develop technologies that can be used commercially in 3M’s six businesses each of which has a top R&D executive responsible for product development.

“There’s R&D and I’m R. A very important metric is technology developed in my lab being transferred to new product introduction programs and operating units,” he says. “You develop technology in the process of development, but fundamentally (the R&D executive’s job) is to develop products. The problem is if you put R under the direct control of the businesses, R becomes D. That’s why organizationally, we leave it apart. We all come together under this Corporate Technical Operations Committee (CTOC). You might think these guys would be all over me to do the present type stuff. No. They understand if you invest your hard dollar in the technologies of the present, your future is going to look very much like the present.”

The CTOC is comprised of each unit’s top R&D executive, Wendling and 3M CTO Fred Palensky. They make sure 3M technologies are shared across the company while getting input from the businesses. “It’s constant push and pull,” says Wendling.

3M’s growth and profitability had slowed in the late 1990s which was the reason McNerney was brought in. In 1999, the share price ranged between $40 and $50. Today, it’s about double that.

“McNerney was brought in to improve the operating efficiency and financial return of this company. That’s why they hired the man. Jim did a super job, reflected in our earnings and the stock price, quite frankly. The way Jim did it was to immerse the company in Six Sigma,” says Wendling. “It had not become the end, but he was using it very aggressively to accomplish financial returns.”

Indeed, Six Sigma has been deployed at highly successful companies such as General Electric, Johnson & Johnson, Bank of America and Starwood Corp. There again, it wasn’t enough to prevent Motorola, where Six Sigma was created, from going through a stretch of tough years when its wide lead in the mobile phone marketplace was lost.

Does this suggest Six Sigma in R&D could be a passing fad? That depends on who you talk to. There’s general agreement that freedom in basic or pure research is preferable while Six Sigma works best in incremental innovation when there’s an expressed commercial goal.

Paul Michaelis, a retired engineering physicist and technical manager for 43 years at the former AT&T Bell Labs, says one key is experience in several technical disciplines. But he adds that there are very smart engineers and scientists who do not possess the innovation gene.

“My take on the innovative process is that the most important component is the people; the process can be formalized, scatterbrained or what you choose. These people should have backgrounds in multiple disciplines and the ability to think “outside the box.” I met and interviewed many highly intelligent and well-educated people who, while good at problem solving, were not capable of being innovative. In my opinion, innovative capability can only be nurtured; seldom, if ever, created.”

Of course it boils down to people, agrees Jim Todhunter, chief technology officer at Invention Machine Corp. in Boston. But that’s not to say they can’t be channeled in a positive direction.

“People can be assisted greatly by processes, communication and infrastructure when these things are coordinated properly. In any organization a positive shift in the effectiveness of its people can have a huge impact on its results.” The review of Six Sigma’s impact on 3M’s financial results would have to be positive. On its longstanding culture of innovation? That depends on who you talk to.

2007年11月19日 星期一

Garmin 與 長虹

在1990年代初 我與這兩家公司有
"驚鴻一瞥"之緣
所以讀到他們消息
特別多感
一誌

Garmin on Friday withdrew its 2.3 billion euro ($3.4 billion) bid for Tele Atlas, clearing the road for TomTom to acquired the digital map maker.

Go to Article from Bloomberg News»
Go to Previous Item from DealBook»


中國第一條自主知識產權的蔭罩式PDP面板生產線即將投產
發展自主平板技術 熊貓PDP項目獲國家2000万支持

consumer safety first (USA and Japan)

紐約時報 Editorial

Reform and Consumer Safety

Published: November 19, 2007

With the recent reports about toxic toys from China, the public is right to be alarmed by the withering of the government’s consumer product safety protections. Congress has been moving ahead on reform bills, but Congressional leaders will have to act deftly to prevent rivalry between the House and Senate from hampering passage of a truly effective final measure. Industry lobbyists are working hard to promote gridlock and stop the tough changes consumers need.

The House has been working on a strong bill to overhaul the Consumer Protection Safety Commission. The legislation wisely focuses on child safety, in light of the agency’s gross failures in spotting dangerous toys. It would tighten lead standards, renovate test labs and require independent third-party testing of all children’s products, both domestic and imported. Children’s crib and car safety standards would be strengthened.

The Senate’s reforms — which are also moving ahead, over objections from the Bush administration — would mandate more safety inspectors, a doubling of the agency budget to $141 million over seven years and the assignment of more consumer safety agents to ports of entry. The House and Senate measures both provide for multifold increases in penalties for violators and stronger recall authority.

The two houses need to agree on a thoughtful blending of these two bills into a law that would force reform on an agency that for too long has been led by foot-dragging political appointees. The safety commission has been reeling backward in recent years, plagued by staffing and budget shortages as it gropes at regulating more than 15,000 consumer products — including the plethora of playthings falling to its single toy inspector.

In the face of the mounting safety scandal, the White House has issued its own “action plan” that, of course, favors allowing the private sector to solve the problem with voluntary reforms. Responsible business leaders are already demanding something stronger in government regulation.

Members of Congress have to resist the industry lobbyists and the administration and pass a strong reform law that puts consumer safety first.




社説

老朽化製品 まず情報の周知徹底を(11月19日)

 家庭で長年使用した製品の事故を防ぐため、経済産業省はメーカー側に保守・点検時期の通知や製品の注意喚起を義務化する新たな対策をまとめた。

 臨時国会でこの対策を盛り込んだ消費生活用製品安全法の改正法が成立した。二○○九年春の施行を目指す。

 製品の老朽化による思わぬ事故が起きているだけに、消費者の安全を守るうえで大事な措置といえる。

 昨年から今年にかけて、ガス湯沸かし器や電気こんろなど生活に身近な製品で事故が相次いできた。

 政府は今年五月から、重大事故の報告をメーカー側に義務づけており、今回はそれに次ぐ法改正となる。

 対策は今夏、三十八年前に製造した扇風機の発火事故で、東京都内の老夫婦が死亡するなど、お年寄りの事故が多発したのがきっかけとなった。

 高齢者の中には一度購入した製品を大切に使う人も多い。これが命にかかわる事故を招くなら、より厳しい安全対策をメーカーに求めるのは当然だ。

 ガス湯沸かし器の事故ではパロマ工業の前社長が刑事責任を問われた。メーカーはこれまで以上にきめ細かな安全対策が要求されるということだ。

 今回の法改正で点検時期の通知が義務付けられるのはガス湯沸かし器や石油温風機、石油給湯器など九品目だ。

 製品に同封されたカードに消費者が連絡先を記入してメーカーに送付することで、メーカー側は十年をめどに、点検が必要な時期に来ていることを消費者に知らせる。

 希望があれば、有料で点検・修理に応じる仕組みだ。

 製品を出荷する際は製造年月日や標準的な使用期間、点検時期の表示も義務付ける。

 ただ、今回の対策には課題も多い。

 まず、標準的な使用期間はメーカー側が決めるが、利用者の使用頻度によって安全に利用できる期間は大きく異なる。客観的な根拠を示すのは難しいだろう。

 事故が発生した場合、その原因が老朽化によるものなのか、製品そのものの欠陥によるかの区別もあいまいだ。

 対策の発端となった扇風機などの主要家電製品が通知制度の対象からはずれているのも納得いかない。

 ガス湯沸かし器などに比べて重大事故は少ないとの判断によるが、実際に死亡事故が起きていることを考えれば対象に含むべきだ。対象製品の拡大は不可欠ではないか。

 経産省によるとメーカー側からの重大事故の報告件数は、報告を義務づけた五月以降、すでに四百八十一件にものぼっている。

 新しい対策が機能するには、こうした事故情報の周知徹底が何よりも大切だ。販売店を通じた定期点検の拡充も検討していく必要がある。



2007年11月18日 星期日

Global Accounting Effort Gains A Step

推行全球會計準則﹐美國邁出重要一步

2007年11月16日18:16 wsj
國證券交易委員會(Securities and Exchange Commission﹐簡稱SEC)週四取消了在美上市的外國企業所提交財務報告必須符合美國公認會計準則(GAAP)的規定﹐許多人希望此舉能為全球會計準則的最終形成帶來重要推動。

在做出這一決定後﹐SEC還將權衡美國公司是否可以在本國會計準則和國際會計準則之間二選一。若果真如此﹐則可能為美國公認會計準則退出舞台鋪平道路﹐而該準則正是美國財務報告體系的基礎。

採用全球統一會計準則的目的是簡化投資者和公司的操作。公司不必再花重金來為世界各地業務編制會計報表﹐同時投資者也能更方便地對全球公司進行業績比較。

然而﹐儘管推動制定全球標準的力量有所增強﹐但潛在問題也已浮出水面。雖然市場已形成了全球化的格局﹐但是不同國家和地區的企業在為誰謀利這一點各不相同﹕有些為了投資者﹐有些是為了公司﹐還有的著眼於國家利益。

如果不同國家和地區用不同方法制定和實施會計準則﹐那麼最終可能會使編制統一準則的計劃以失敗收場。在投資者看來﹐針對該準則的各種不同解釋將使其可靠性降低。正因如此﹐一些批評人士表示現在就試圖制定統一會計標準為時過早。

美 國一些大型投資機構對SEC這一決定表示了擔憂。擁有2,400億美元資金的加州公務員退休基金(California Public Employees' Retirement System)就是其中之一。該基金在一份信函中表示﹐它對審計的連貫性以及實行該準則能否保證財務報告的可信度感到擔心。

雖 然SEC委員承認統一國際會計準則面臨反對意見以及包括培訓審計人員和投資者在內的巨大障礙﹐但還是以4票對0票通過了取消對外國公司的財務報告限制規 定。SEC主席克里斯托弗•考克斯(Christopher Cox)稱這一步意義重大﹐並表示SEC對國際準則的接受表明美國公認會計準則正與國際標準不斷融合。

對於那些本財年截止在2007年的 外國公司來說﹐如果其會計報告符合國際會計準則理事會(International Accounting Standards Board﹐簡稱IASB)制定的標準﹐那麼它們現在就可以不再按照美國公認會計準則編制他們的財務報表了。SEC的舉措也為美國公司提供了另一種可能﹐ 即它們日後或許可以從國際準則和美國準則中選擇其一﹐但SEC並未正式提議允許這種做法﹐目前該問題仍處在研究階段。

另外﹐SEC還提議 修改共同基金公司的募股說明書。如果該議案被採納的話﹐那麼基金公司將必須用簡單的英語撰寫一份關於基金投資目標、成本以及風險的概要﹐並要在文件開頭簡 要說明基金的十大投資項目。基金業的美國投資公司協會Investment Company Institute對SEC此舉表示歡迎。

SEC還確定了有關小企業集資的規定﹐使這一過程更為容易。

一些SEC委員仍擔心現在就向國際標準完全靠攏為時過早。SEC委員安奈特•納扎雷斯(Annette Nazareth)指出﹐如果範圍太廣的話﹐投資者不但會對財務報告的可靠性喪失信心﹐財務報告也會失去美國公認會計準則所提供的連貫性。

儘管國際市場之間的聯繫日益增強﹐但各個國家和地區仍然在市場的優先服務對象上有所不同。在美國和英國﹐市場通常是由投資者推動的。財務報告的編制和相關準則的制定都是為了服務於投資者﹐他們的需求通常比公司和審計人員得到優先考慮。

在歐洲﹐投資者的需求通常會讓位於公司和政治目標。而在中國﹐公司、市場和投資者都要為中國共產黨的需求讓路。

印地安那大學 (Indiana University)會計學副教授特里•永(Teri Lombardi Yohn)上個月在參議院下屬委員會召開的關於國際會計準則的聽證會上作證稱﹕“我認為你可以採用一套標準﹐但是不同國家的制度、理解以及觀念各異﹐所以 執行起來也會不同。”

全球統一會計體系的擁護者則表示﹐若採取充分的保護措施就可以減少國際會計準則的制定機構、即IASB所受到的政治干預。

David Reilly / Kara Scannell


Global Accounting Effort Gains A Step

2007年11月16日18:16
The Securities and Exchange Commission took an important step toward what many hope will eventually lead to a global accounting standard, dropping a requirement that non-U.S. companies with U.S. listings reconcile their results to U.S. rules.

That sets the stage for the SEC to consider whether U.S. companies should be able to choose between U.S. and international rules, as well. If that were to happen it could potentially pave the way for the abandonment of U.S. generally accepted accounting principles, the foundation of the U.S. financial reporting system.

The idea is that a single set of global accounting rules would make life simpler for investors and companies alike. Companies wouldn't have to spend as much to compile accounts for their operations around the world, while investors would find it easier to compare corporate results for companies on a global basis.

But even as the drive toward a global standard gains steam, potential problems loom. While markets are global, individual countries and regions differ on whether they should operate to benefit investors, companies or in some cases governments.

That could ultimately undermine a single set of standards if countries and regions take different approaches to formulating and applying the rules. A thicket of different interpretations could make a single set of rules unreliable for investors. That is why some critics say it is too early to move in this direction.

Concerns over dropping the reconciliation requirement were raised by some large U.S. investors, including the California Public Employees' Retirement System, which manages $240 billion. In a letter, Calpers expressed concern about consistent auditing and enforcement of international rules to ensure credible financial statements.

While acknowledging the opposition and 'tremendous' hurdles -- including educating auditors and investors -- to reaching a global accounting standard, the SEC's commissioners voted 4-0 to drop the reconciliation requirement. Chairman Christopher Cox called the step 'significant' and said the agency's acceptance of international rules signaled the continued convergence between these standards and U.S. GAAP.

Non-U.S. companies with financial years ending in 2007 will now be able to stop reconciling their results with U.S. GAAP immediately, if their results comply with rules set by the International Accounting Standards Board. While the SEC's move opens the possibility that U.S. companies could choose between international and U.S. standards, the commission hasn't formally proposed a rule to allow this. The agency is still studying the issue.

Separately, the SEC voted to propose overhauling offering documents, or prospectuses, issued by mutual-fund companies. The proposal, if adopted, would require fund companies to state in plain English a summary of the fund's investment objectives, costs and risks, as well as briefly detail the fund's top 10 holdings at the front of the document. The fund industry's Investment Company Institute applauded the SEC's move.

The SEC also finalized rules to make it easier for small businesses to raise money.

When it comes to accounting standards, some commissioners still worry it's too soon for a complete embrace of international rules. 'If there is wide latitude . . . investors will not only lose confidence in the reliability of financial statements but also will lose the consistency that U.S. GAAP provides,' Commissioner Annette Nazareth said.

Despite the growing connections between international markets, countries and regions still differ sharply in who those markets are intended to serve first. In the U.S. and the United Kingdom, markets are generally investor-driven. Financial statements, and the rules that govern them, are designed with investors' needs generally taking priority over those of companies and auditors.

Elsewhere in Europe, investors' needs often take a back seat to corporate or political goals. In China, meanwhile, companies, markets and investors are all subservient to the needs of the ruling Communist Party.

'I think you could have one set of standards, but given the differences in countries' institutions and perceptions and views the implementation is going to be different and the enforcement is going to be different,' said Teri Lombardi Yohn, an associate professor of accounting at Indiana University who testified last month at a Senate subcommittee hearing on international standards.

Proponents of a single, global accounting system say sufficient protections could assure that the body that crafts international rules, the IASB, is buffered from political interference.

David Reilly / Kara Scannell



2007年11月16日 星期五

Mapping the Crowd





Inside Innovation

An Interactive Database of Ideas

Boston Consulting Group's tool enables researchers and companies to map who's working on what and where, allowing innovative collaboration

By Brian Hindo

Wouldn't it be great if there were a map you could follow to new ideas? A software tool developed by strategy firm Boston Consulting Group doesn't provide exactly that, but it can at least map out where ideas came from—and offer clues to where new ones may lie. The proprietary software, developed in-house by BCG, trawls patent and scholarly databases, then displays the search results, showing who is doing research on a particular topic and with whom. Researchers and companies are represented on the map by circles, with those working on similar projects located close together on the map. Citations to one another's work are represented by links connecting each circle.

The tool has implications for innovation. At a glance, you can see which patents are the most cited, in what direction research is headed, and which people and organizations are collaborating. This could suggest potential acquisition targets or identify a prolific scientist a company should hire. It can be used to shape strategy—a company may be able to spot a "white space," where an innovation can bridge a gap between two networks.

Here's a look at how the Saratoga (Calif.) nonprofit Myelin Repair Foundation (MRF), which researches treatments for multiple sclerosis, is using the tool.






Connecting the Dots

One of MRF's goals is to promote interdisciplinary research. In 2003, when MRF pulled together its initial team of principal investigators, BCG used its network mapping tool to search medical databases for 56 different compounds and proteins relevant to MS treatment. This image shows a part of the map that resulted.

MRF was reassured to see that two of their hires—Brian Popko, a geneticist then working at New York University, and Steve Miller, a Northwestern University immunologist—were represented as relatively large circles. (The bigger the circle, the bigger the volume of relevant research.) The interface is interactive, so executives at MRF could mouse over any one of the nodes to see the underlying research data. Clicking on the node pulls up the actual abstract.

Dotting the edges of Popko and Miller's networks are nodes representing authors of related medical papers. (For readability's sake, the names of the authors of those papers are truncated to the first two letters.) The lines connecting the nodes symbolize either a citation link or co-authorship. And the numbers denote how many papers each person wrote and how many times they cited one another.

Miller and Popko's circles were unlinked. That meant they had not collaborated, or even cited one another's work in any of their published papers. That was something MRF aimed to change.



Mapping the Crowd

Software that maps who is working on common problems is shaving years off research—and honing corporate strategies



Keeping track of the dizzying proliferation of information in the Digital Age can overwhelm managers, and sizing up potential alliances can be daunting. But getting lost can be a costly setback for those with valuable ideas they want to develop.

Maps—specifically, intellectual property maps created by strategic advisers Boston Consulting Group—increasingly are being used by everyone from health-care companies to research scientists. They're deploying them to better manage, and expand, the networks they want to cultivate. By mapping links among people and corporations issuing patents and conducting research on common problems, BCG's software tool can bring to light ways to achieve breakthroughs. Being able to map which scientists communicate—and how often—could help managers focus on new areas of research.

SHAVING YEARS OFF RESEARCH

The BCG mapping software conducts keyword searches of patent and scholarly databases. Unlike other data trawlers, such as Google (GOOG)'s patent search, the firm's tool arranges the data in the form of a map with circles and connecting lines, quickly illustrating which organizations are working on similar technologies and which researchers are citing a company's patents. Companies and people show up as circles—the bigger the circles, the greater the amount of work those companies are doing in fields related to the keywords. Research or patent citations are shown on the map as links between circles.

Companies and organizations have used the BCG maps to survey the state of research in their fields; to scope out potential acquisition targets; or simply to foster more teamwork across disciplines or among employees. BCG declined to say what it charges for the tool, but the fees typically are included in the cost of a broader consulting service.

The Myelin Repair Foundation (MRF), for example, a Saratoga (Calif.) nonprofit, pulls together scientists from various disciplines to research treatments for multiple sclerosis (MS). When MRF founder Scott Johnson, a BCG alumnus, first organized his team of five principal investigators in 2003, he used the network mapper to see how the researchers' work was interconnected. Johnson's team used the software, provided pro bono by BCG, to search medical databases for about 56 different compounds or proteins that are important to MS treatment. The resulting map showed the five MRF researchers and their labs as prominent circles, which represented the many scientific papers they published about the compounds. But there were only a few thin lines connecting the circles, indicating the researchers were largely working alone and rarely citing each other's work.

With a topographical view of their interactions, Johnson has pushed the scientists to work together more often. As a result, the latest map shows the intertwined work of Stephen Miller, an immunologist at Northwestern University, and Brian Popko, a University of Chicago geneticist. Their circles didn't connect on the initial 2003 map. But as the current one shows, they're citing one another and co-authoring papers often. "They've become quite interdependent over the years," says Russell Bromley, MRF's chief operating officer. "Brian has ended up having Steve work with him on projects that are more immunological in nature…and Steve has worked with Brian on projects that really are coming out of his genetics work."

Organizing such a vast array of information in a visual way allows MRF managers, for example, to peek at hard-to-find technologies. MS causes inflammation in the brain and spinal cord, so the team uses the tool to find out what's happening in inflammation research broadly, uncovering the work of unfamiliar scientists in adjacent fields. Without it, Bromley says, the foundation would have to cast its nets the old-fashioned way, asking colleagues haphazardly at conferences or doing a laborious manual search of the literature. He says using the map has shaved years off the process.

Another kind of payoff may come when an intellectual property map is used to shape strategy. Companies can detect early-stage rivals that are working on new technologies, for example. When BCG deploys the software, one goal is to discover "promising white spaces," or blank areas where clients can find opportunities, says Wendi Backler, who runs the firm's work in intellectual property and networking. BCG used mapping to help a health-care company seeking to grow through acquisitions—the company had identified only one potential target. A search of patent keywords brought up hundreds more that flew beneath the client's radar.

Backler recalls another company struggling to grow. It looked at a map of patent activity in its industry and saw a field of circles representing each of its rivals, with lines connecting one another like a constellation. The client showed up as a lonely little dot in the lower corner of the map, like a Facebook user with no friends. The lesson: It was isolated in a networked world.

Hindo is BusinessWeek's Corporate Strategies editor in New York .

quality at nursing homes was declining

Washington Scrutinizes Nursing Homes
By CHARLES DUHIGG
Congressional hearings were prompted in part by concerns that quality at nursing homes was declining as large chains were acquired by private investment groups.

Court Rejects Fuel Standards on Trucks

QUOTATION OF THE DAY
"Climate change has ushered in a whole new era of judicial review."
PATRICK PARENTEAU, an environmental law professor, on an appeals court decision that struck down Bush administration’s fuel economy standards as too lax.

Court Rejects Fuel Standards on Trucks
By FELICITY BARRINGER and MICHELINE MAYNARD
A federal appeals court said that new fuel-economy standards for light trucks, including S.U.V.’s, didn’t thoroughly assess the impact of greenhouse gases.

2007年11月10日 星期六

C.E.O. Evolution Phase 3

考慮一陣子才將這篇轉貼
因為這其實是美國大公司之特例


C.E.O. Evolution Phase 3


Published: November 10, 2007

Has the time come for C.E.O. Version 3.0?

Skip to next paragraph

Stuart Isett for The New York Times

W. James McNerney Jr. listened to Boeing’s staff to overcome his outsider image.

The first iteration made its mark in the 1990s, as chief executives like Sanford I. Weill, Gerald M. Levin, John F. Welch Jr. and Michael Eisner built empires, not to mention their profiles, at the companies they ran: Citigroup, Time Warner, GE and Disney.

When the shares deflated earlier this decade after the burst of the tech bubble and various corporate scandals, a new cadre moved in: the Fix-it Men. They were lower-key leaders like Charles O. Prince III of Citigroup and Richard D. Parsons of Time Warner, whose job it was to repair the excesses and mistakes of their predecessors.

Now, management experts and longtime watchers of corporate America say the current environment demands, and is attracting, yet another kind of chief executive: the team builder.

“It’s someone who can assemble a team that functions as smoothly as a jazz sextet,” said Warren Bennis, a professor of management at the University of Southern California and author of many books on leadership.

In the last week, Mr. Prince and Mr. Parsons both announced they would be stepping aside. Mr. Prince’s abrupt exit followed huge losses that dragged down Citigroup’s long-stagnant stock, while Mr. Parsons is retiring at the end of 2007 after a five-year tenure, during which he stabilized the company but failed to move Time Warner shares higher.

A third chief executive, E. Stanley O’Neal of Merrill Lynch, was forced out late last month after his firm announced an $8.4 billion write-down.

Mr. O’Neal substantially increased Merrill’s revenue and profit during his tenure but has been criticized for forcing out subordinates he perceived as rivals, while several top executives left Citigroup during Mr. Prince’s reign. Now both companies find themselves searching for permanent replacements.

“They’ve got to have not just the cognitive ability to run a major firm, which Stan O’Neal definitely had, but the ability to make people feel like they’re working together,” Mr. Bennis said.

Merrill and Citi might consider looking at chief executives like A.G. Lafley of Procter & Gamble or W. James McNerney Jr. of Boeing as archetypes of the new model, according to Mr. Bennis.

“Both felt the need to make sure the top hundred people know that they’re in this together, that their fates are correlated,” Mr. Bennis says. “That’s what it will take to succeed in this century.”

Mr. Lafley and Mr. McNerney have won plaudits not merely for their personal style, but also for their bottom-line performance, with shares of Procter & Gamble and Boeing easily outpacing the likes of Citigroup and Time Warner, as well as the benchmark Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index, over the last two years.

That’s no coincidence, according to Michael Useem, a professor of management at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and director of the Center for Leadership and Change Management there. “The academic research says if you want to predict what the future financial performance over the next one to three years will be, you need to know the top team,” he said.

Jeffrey A. Sonnenfeld, senior associate dean for executive programs at the School of Management at Yale, says the style of today’s best chief executives differs from both the empire builders and the cleanup specialists.

The former were known for public swagger and boardroom-size egos, while the latter often excelled at a narrow set of skills, Mr. Sonnenfeld said. He cited Mr. Prince’s skills as a lawyer who was able to get his company back into the good graces of regulators after Mr. Weill’s departure. Others say Mr. Parsons was a strong administrator, but failed to offer a strategy that satisfied Wall Street.

Mr. Sonnenfeld says Mr. Lafley and Mr. McNerney, along with Anne Mulcahy, chief executive of Xerox, possess the vision of the empire builders without their overpowering egos, while also bringing more personal warmth to the corner office

Ms. Mulcahy, for example, was able to cut jobs and restore Xerox’s profitability “without coming across as mean-spirited,” Mr. Sonnenfeld said. Mr. Lafley “is disarmingly unpretentious,” he added. “He never comes to my summits and I’ve never been a consultant for him, but he towers over other C.E.O.’s when it comes to putting in people stronger than himself or his ability to talk about setbacks.”

Mr. Lafley has spent his entire career at Procter & Gamble, while Mr. McNerney arrived at Boeing after decades at General Electric, long regarded as something of a management boot camp, and after a successful stint as chief executive of 3M. Although clearly an outsider at Boeing, Mr. Sonnenfeld said, “he learned to listen to the culture there.”

This approach, he said, means these leaders were able to “introduce change but people don’t hate them for it; the team comes to them.”

Mr. O’Neal, on the other hand, “fired people who shouldn’t have been fired,” Mr. Bennis said. Mr. Prince, he added, “was always in the shadow of Mr. Weill; he never was able to build his own team.”

And when disaster struck in the form of billions in losses from the subprime meltdown, these weaknesses came back to haunt Citigroup and Merrill Lynch.

“Whenever you have such a stunning decline, errors become much more visible,” Mr. Bennis said.

Of course, just as chief executives shape the times, so do the times shape them. “There’s a theory that the people who get to the top at big companies should be best at solving the problems of their era,” Mr. Useem said.

In fact, Mr. Sonnenfeld said, the original archetype was what he called “the custodian,” leaders who came of age during the Organization Man era of the 1950s, but were overwhelmed by the rapidly shifting economic landscape of the 1970s and 1980s.

They were followed by the empire builders who focused on mega-mergers and financial management in the 1990s to deliver the growth Wall Street demanded while getting big enough to achieve economies of scale and beat back foreign competitors.

The cleanup artists arrived on the scene in the wake of the collapse of Enron and WorldCom and the passage of Sarbanes-Oxley legislation, which tightened government oversight of public companies.

At the same time, investors were demanding quick fixes. In Time Warner’s case, Carl C. Icahn, the billionaire activist investor, pressed for a quick breakup of the company, something Mr. Parsons was able to stave off.

Business schools are also opting for the 3.0 approach. At the Yale School of Management last year, Mr. Sonnenfeld said, the dean and faculty threw out the old first-year curriculum that emphasized individual disciplines like finance and marketing and replaced it with a team-oriented approach, with professors teaching these subjects jointly. In addition, he said, “We have students, faculty and staff assemble their own teams as part of their training to be future execs.”

What will be the main challenge in the next 5 to 10 years? Mr. Useem predicted it would be achieving double-digit growth internally, without the benefit of huge deals or accounting sleight-of-hand. “That’s why I think the baton will go to the manager who will stimulate a division and will be creative and innovative,” he said.

2007年11月9日 星期五

“家庭圈”

2007.11.09 逛書店 奇想之一是創逼刊物 Circles

晚上2200 推書車上樓 電梯出現一對夫婦和一幼兒女

那小孩三歲 戴一深度眼鏡 叫我爺爺

社会 |

德国人乐于当志愿者

“联邦家庭事务”部前不久发表的第二份“志愿者评鉴报告”显示,德国14岁以上从事义工活动的人口,站人口总数的36%。然而,公众社会对这种义工劳动至今未给予应有的重视。德国之声记者参观了波恩义工组织“家庭圈”的一个工作项目。

波恩志愿者组织“家庭圈”的服务对象,是那些有不满3岁幼小孩子,需要托人照顾的家庭。“家庭圈”发起人指出,经验表明,并不是所有年轻家庭都能获得来自亲戚或朋友们的帮助,其中大多数都极需义工的支援。因此“家庭圈”试着向这些家庭提供帮助。

“家庭圈”的创办人亨克尔女士表示,在必要的时候伸出援手,可避免小事变大,她说:“义工的主要功能在于避免疾病和家庭暴力的发生。对许多有幼儿的家庭来说,这是处境最困难,负担最重的一个阶段,从而潜藏着可能一触即发的家庭危机。因此向这些家庭提供支援显得至关重要。”

孩子刚出生的这段时期,年轻父母可获得助产士的支援;而当孩子满了3岁就可以送进幼儿园了。亨克尔说:“减轻年轻家庭在孩子上幼儿园之前这段时间的负担,是我们工作的重点内容。”

义工替年轻家庭看孩子、带孩子玩儿、出去散步、 帮忙采买或烧饭等等。45岁的卡琳是“家庭圈”的成员。由于从事自由职业,因此可以较灵活地安排义工工作时间。她自己没孩子,2006年起加入了这个义工 组织。她说:“对我来说,有点事儿做是很重要的。当我在报上看到这个组织成立的消息,心想,这正是我想要做的义工工作。因为从自身的经验知道,当搬到一个 陌生城市后,在需要帮助时,尤其是孩子刚出生,却没有亲人在身边的不方便。”

卡琳已经义务帮助了三个家庭:她一周工作两到三次,照顾孩子或带他们到儿童游戏场玩儿;有时候也聆听孩子爸爸、妈妈们的倾诉。她说:“有时带了两个小时的孩子后,自己的感觉非常好,因为跟孩子玩儿是很愉快的事儿,可以说,它为我的生活带来了额外的美好时刻。”

已经提前退休的国民经济学家罗森达尔,是“家庭 圈”9名义工里唯一的男性。对组织来说,这是个运气,因为有的家庭特别希望能获得男性义工的支援。罗森达尔表示:“我曾经照顾过一个不满3岁的小女孩儿。 女孩儿的妈妈跟我说,孩子没有兄弟,爷爷、爸爸、叔叔、伯伯们都不在身边,所以她认为,能有一个男性义工帮忙照顾这个孩子,对她来说,肯定具有积极的意 义。”

也是于2006年参加“家庭圈”义工组织的罗森 达尔,每周利用两个下午的时间,当孩子们的替身爷爷。他想方设法儿的带着他们玩儿,并寓教于乐,例如到森林公园儿童游乐场、野生动物公园、农庄或自然博物 馆。有时他也推着婴儿车散步。他说:“由于传统大家庭的消失,孩子乏人照顾的情况时有所闻,再加上现代社会的邻里关系淡泊,以及家庭中父母的负担太重,没 时间关心和照顾孩子,使他们未来的成长发育蒙上阴影,进而影响整个社会的和谐发展。因此我们关注的重点,是给予缺乏家庭照顾青少年儿童必要的关怀、启发和 支持。”

Katja Gundlach

百年老店:TRW Inc.

前天有朋友跟我談起TRW公司
今天讀到原旗下的TRW Automotive Holdings Corp. 在日本設技術支援中心
我去查一下 TRW 和 TRW Automotive Holdings Corp. 發現它們都被買掉.....




TRW Opens New Japan Engineering Center to Support Japanese Customers
PR Newswire

YOKOHAMA, Japan, Nov. 9 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- TRW Automotive Holdings Corp. - the global leader in active and passive safety systems, has opened a new, custom-designed 5,000 square meter Japan Engineering Center (JEC) in Yokohama, housing research and development, application engineering and full product testing capabilities.

(Logo: http://www.newscom.com/cgi-bin/prnh/20010824/TRWLOGO )

The JEC broadens and consolidates TRW's technical presence in Japan and is designed to support all local customers for TRW's full safety portfolio. At full capacity the JEC will house a total of 130 engineers, technicians, sales and support staff.

The JEC significantly expands the company's Occupant Safety Systems presence in Japan and houses the new dynamic crash simulator with full sled testing capability. The facility will also provide a common location for all four engineering groups including steering & suspension, braking, occupant safety, and integrated safety systems and include advanced test equipment for all product lines.

"We are very excited to officially open the Japan Engineering Center today," said TRW president and CEO John C. Plant. "The new center is a reflection of our commitment to the Japanese market and our ongoing effort to provide the best in advanced safety systems to Japanese customers, both domestically and around the world."

The new three-story center features full laboratory and testing facilities for all major TRW product lines, and also serves as the headquarters for the Japan sales team and the executive management team.

"TRW Automotive Japan has introduced its global account management structure to serve Japanese vehicle manufacturers with the goal of sharpened focus and enhanced service to the needs of these customers worldwide. To reinforce this effort, our new engineering center also serves as the overall TRW headquarters, offering our customers one major contact location for our sales and engineering teams," said Shinzo Yotsumoto, president of TRW Automotive Japan. "From our new center we will offer customers a full spectrum of services to support current product applications and develop new ones for the Japanese market with better responsiveness by coordinating with the overseas core engineering teams of TRW globally."



TRW Automotive Holdings Corp.

Type: Public
On the web: http://www.trwauto.com
Employees: 63,800
Employee growth: 1.1%

TRW Automotive now has Blackstone Group at the wheel. The private investment group purchased TRW Automotive from its parent company, TRW Inc., in a deal valued at more than $4.7 billion. Northrop Grumman, which bought TRW for its defense assets, still holds a 10% stake in TRW Automotive. The company makes components for automakers such as Volkswagen (16% of sales), Ford (15%), and General Motors (11%). Products include chassis systems (brake, steering, and suspension systems) and safety systems such as airbags, security electronics, and seat belts. Other products include body controls and engine valves.

Key numbers for fiscal year ending December, 2006:
Sales: $13,144.0M
One year growth: 4.0%
Net income: $176.0M
Income growth: (13.7%)

Officers:
Chairman: Neil P. Simpkins
President, CEO, and Director: John C. Plant
EVP and COO: Steven Lunn

Competitors:
Autoliv
Delphi
Robert Bosch




TRW Inc.
U.S. manufacturer of advanced equipment and systems for industry and government. Founded in 1901 as a maker of cap screws, it was incorporated in 1916 as the Steel Products Co. The name was changed to Thompson Products, Inc., in 1926, then to Thompson Ramo Wooldridge Inc. after a merger in 1958, and to TRW Inc. in 1965. Through its various divisions and subsidiaries, TRW designed and manufactured a wide range of automotive parts, electronic systems for military aircraft, and spacecraft. Its information systems and services segments maintain databases for screening credit histories. In 2002 defense contractor Northrop Grumman acquired TRW for its aerospace division.

2007年11月6日 星期二

中國分級醫保

2007年10月22日 格林尼治標準時間13:02北京時間 21:02發表


中國分級醫保是否解決看病難問題?
麥杰弗林
BBC記者發自湖北的報道

周云(音)
周云在村子小診所中已經工作了40年
中共領導人全面改革中國的醫保制度,目的是讓窮人看得起病。然而,這一改革是否令中國的問題更為惡化呢?

我採訪了湖北省的一個小村子,一片或新或舊的房屋叢立於麥地和稻田之中。

村醫周雲(音)正在她的小診所裡打掃衛生,牆邊上是一個老式的貨架,上面堆放著滿是灰塵的藥盒。

掃完地,她穿上白大褂,準備接診。

她自豪地說,她在這裡行醫已經40年了。她補充說,現在的制度比以前好,現在村民有了更多的選擇。

周醫生介紹說,她的工資由村委會支付。看病的村民只付藥費。買不起藥的村民,可以申請補助。

湖北的農民
很多貧窮的村民無法支付新的醫療費

分級醫保

她這種正面的肯定,會讓王保真教授感到高興。王教授是武漢大學的醫保專家,中國衛生部的顧問。

王教授向我介紹了中央政府最近在幫助農村貧困人口方面所做的努力。

經濟改革前,實行的是國家負擔的醫療制度。現在這一體系瓦解了,結果醫療費用對很多農村居民來說,正在成為一個新的負擔。 現在城裡的富人都購買醫療保險,而窮人,多數是農村居民,因為看病而債台高筑,或者根本就不看病。

中央政府為此實行了新的制度,"新型農村合作醫療制度"。 王教授解釋說,在這一制度下,平均每人醫療費用為50元人民幣(7美元)。 其中,中央出20元,省裡出20元,患者本人出10元。

她說,中國已經有將近80%求求約6.85億農村人口,參加了這一醫療體系。 如果沒有慢性病或大病,該計劃肯定可以解除一些人的經濟負擔,不過這個制度有嚴格的分級。

如果患者在當地鄉鎮小醫院就醫,他們醫療費用的70到80可以解決﹔如果去縣醫院就醫,報銷比例降為三分之二左右。

如果他們到大城市看專家,多數費用要自己負擔。這一計劃只能報銷三分之一。

貧富差距

我去採訪武漢同濟醫院,聽到不少人報怨。 來向我訴說的多數患者,都是從外地來武漢看病,向我訴說他們的經歷。

有一個人告訴我,他兒子是腎病,過去五年不停地看病,家裡已經花了將近40000元醫療費。 他們的積蓄都花光了,欠了一屁股債。他補充說,如果繼續下去,這個家就垮了。

武漢同濟醫院外等候的人們
很多病人都對醫療體系不滿

有一位退休職工今年66歲。他說現在的醫保體系比從前差遠了。 九年前他兒子死於肝癌,但是家裡並沒有因為巨額醫藥費用而背上重負。 而現在,最近他剛做了一個頸部手術,醫療費用讓他感到很大壓力。 他說,這次的手術不成功,他還需要再做手術。

一些手術費用由政府支付,但是剩下的費用,他就得向親戚東湊西借自己出了。 這種依靠東拼西湊來支付醫療費用的情況再次反映出中國貧富差距不斷加大。

由于社會壓力不斷增大,中央政府感到憂慮,他們急於解決這一問題。當局實行的基層農村醫療計劃,就是一個重要的舉措。

然而對許多人來說,這一措施也只是解決了部分問題。

2005年03月31日 格林尼治標準時間16:29北京時間 00:29發表
農村醫保舉步維艱
中國社保之五
BBC中文網記者 朝歌

城市的醫保問題尚且如此嚴重,農村的問題就更大了。

最近幾年,中國農村流傳著不少有關醫療方面的民謠。比如,“脫貧三五年,一病回從前。”“救護車一響,一頭豬白養﹔住一次醫院,一年活白乾。”

中國衛生部副部長朱慶生承認,農民的年收入還不夠住一次醫院。2003年全國農民人均包括實物在內的純收入是2600多塊錢,而農村居民的平均住院費用一次為2200多元錢。

中國農村
眾多貧困的中國農村人口看不起病、買不起藥
個人負擔重了

過去20年來,中國經濟發展迅速,為什麼國民,特別是農民卻看不起病了呢?

安徽大學經濟學院副教授張德元是從事三農問題研究的專家。他說,“根據我們國家統計部門的統計,進入90年代以後,政府的 衛生支出預算佔全國衛生總費用的比例不到20%,而且每年都在逐年下降。這樣看出來,無論城市還是鄉村,從總體上看,我們個人的衛生負擔比重比較大。另 外,如果把城市和鄉村相比,農村的醫療衛生負擔人均是城市的3.6倍。”

張德元教授說,中國衛生部進行的一項調查顯示,農村人口的89%是自費醫療。而在湖北、江蘇和廣東三省進行的貧困戶調查發現,他們中有35%是因病致貧、因病返貧。

中國社科院社會政策研究中心副主任楊團教授認為,如果說到農村居民的社會保障,第一位問題不是吃飯問題,也不是低保問題,而是醫療問題。醫療的問題實際上是個大問題。

“而醫療問題,應該把它分成兩個部分,第一個部分是大基本醫療。我的概念是包括預防保健在內的。就是說,預防保健加常見 病、多發病。第二個部分才是大病和住院。那麼現在最關緊要的,是第一個部分,預防保健這個部分。農村所謂缺醫少藥最重要的是預防保健常見病多發病的治療這 樣一個網絡已經全部瓦解了。”

藥片
看病吃藥成了農民最大的負擔
農村醫保 困難重重

中國政府提出要在8年時間內恢復農村醫療保健網,但是,談何容易。

張德元教授認為第一個條件,也就是農村的組織化資源-集體化的基礎已經徹底崩潰。他說,“我們國家進入90年代以後,關於 農村合作醫療,曾經想恢復過。但是,這兩次恢復都失敗了。有一個原因就是我們原來的合作醫療,那是在計劃經濟體制下,依靠農村的集體經濟而存在的。現在集 體經濟崩潰了以後,依托已經沒有了。”

張德元教授所說的兩次恢復農村合作醫療,第一次指的是1991年,當時的中國總理李鵬代表中國政府向世界衛生組織承諾,到2000年中國將全面落實農村初級衛生保健工作﹔為兌現這一承諾,政府曾力圖恢復農村合作醫療制度。但是,直到今天,李鵬的承諾還沒有兌現。

第二次是1997年1月,中國政府再下決心,國務院發佈《關於衛生改革與發展的決定》,要求各地“積極穩妥地發展和完善合作醫療制度”,但又失敗了。

衛生部1998年進行的“第二次國家衛生服務調查”結果顯示,全國農村居民中得到某種程度醫療保障的人口只有12.56%,其中合作醫療的比重只有6.5%。

這些年來,政府在財政投入上轉移支付力度逐年遞減。遼寧省中醫學院附屬醫院醫保辦主任洪旗談了他們醫院的經費情況:“我們 醫院原先就是差額撥款,近幾年差額撥款逐年減少。聽說,好像是今年就沒有什麼撥款了。但是撥款的形式改成以科研形式,扶植中醫事業,以科研形式撥給醫院 了。但是,根據課題決定撥給你多少。”

洪主任說,因此他們醫院日常運作的財政經費是靠自收自支。2003年他們大約是1億6總的收入。利潤在5千萬左右。遼寧省中醫學院附屬醫院的正常運營開支可能就靠這5千萬,其中還包括開工資。

中國衛生部衛生經濟研究所衛生發展與戰略研究室主任李衛平研究員也證實了政府減少對醫療的財政投入,是個人醫藥費不斷增加的主要原因。“這邊國家投入比重相對在下降,那邊,醫療保險覆蓋面擴非常困難。那邊進,進的慢,這邊國家投入在下降。所以就出現病人的負擔在增加。”

2000年6月,世界衛生組織在對全球191個成員國國家衛生系統的業績做出量化評估後,進行排名,中國在“財務負擔公平性”方面,位居尼泊爾、越南之後,排名188位,倒數第四,被列為衛生系統"財務負擔"最不公平的國家之一。

中國農村
農村醫療改革困難重重
道路曲折

基於中國政府兩次試圖恢復農村合作醫療的失敗和目前農村醫療衛生事業的急劇惡化,2003年中國提出了建立新型農村合作醫療制度。但是,中國社科院的楊團教授認為這個套用城鎮醫療保障制度的設計本身就存在明顯問題。

“現在新型合作醫療對準的恰恰是高端的,就是說對準的是大病住院。而對於基本醫療,特別是預防保健,完全沒有納入新型合作醫療。所以,這個對今後農村衛生事業的發展就不能不有很大的憂慮。這是屬於政策上的問題。”

張德元教授在農村進行調研時發現, 歷年來,政府在農村政策上的失誤已經造成老百姓對政府,特別是對地方政府的不信任。

比如,農村新型合作醫療實行中央政府、地方政府和農民各出10元自願參加的原則。一方面是貧困農民無錢繳費而無法參保,另一方面,農民不願意把血汗錢繳給自己信不過的政府。

據張德元教授下鄉考察,在一些試點縣,參保率很低。有些鄉政府為了完成上級指標,不得不動用其它資金墊款。農村新型合作醫療改革舉步艱辛,難以推進。中國目前推行的整個醫療保障制度改革存在一些基本的原則性問題,如果不加以解決,前景不妙。



簡體

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