(bbc)全球感染HIV估計人數下調至3300萬
 非洲仍然是愛滋病感染的重災區 |
聯合國和世界衛生組織的愛滋病專家說，2007年全球感染人類免疫缺陷病毒（Human Immunodeficiency Virus, HIV）的人的估計數目從接近4,000萬人下調到3,300萬人左右。
專家們說，因數據採集過程作出調整，全球愛滋病毒感染者減少主要應歸因於印度愛滋病患者的報告數量此前作了下調。
聯合國和世衛組織說，儘管全球每天新增6,800個新病例和有5,700名患者死亡，但新增的愛滋病感染病例和愛滋病患者死亡的總數有所下降。
愛滋病病毒通過血液傳播，主要傳播途徑包括性傳播、共用注射工具和母嬰傳播。
非洲仍然是愛滋病感染的重災區，而亞洲部分地區則是愛滋病感染增長最快的地方。
非洲撒哈拉沙漠以南的地方約有2,250萬人感染愛滋病，新感染病例約為每年170萬，比上一年略微增長。
亞洲情況
亞洲共有490萬人感染愛滋病，而越南自2000年以來感染愛滋病的人數已增加了1倍。 
毫無疑問，我們已開始看到投資回報。 
聯合國愛滋病規劃署執行主任皮澳特博士說，數據採集過程改善後的數字使人們對亞洲愛滋病的狀況有了更清晰的瞭解，這說明這裡面既有挑戰也有機會。
他說："毫無疑問，我們已開始看到投資回報。"
他表示，"可我們必須加大努力，大大減少愛滋病對全球的影響。"
聯合國說，估計2007年會新增250萬名愛滋病患者，210萬人因愛滋病而死。
因數據採集過程獲得改進，今年的全球愛滋病患者估計數量被調整為3,320萬名，較去年預測的3,950萬名減少630萬。
聯合國愛滋病規劃署表示，2006年的愛滋病患者數字並太準確，因為印度愛滋病患者的報告數量比原來估計的人數要少。
專家們說，2006年的愛滋病患者數字更可能接近3,270萬名。
AIDS
WHO’s counting?
Nov 20th 2007
From Economist.com
Not as bad an epidemic as once seemed
ON THE face of things, a fall in the number of people infected with HIV (the virus that causes AIDS) from 39.5m to 33.2m over the course of a single year should be cause for rejoicing. That is the news from this year’s AIDS epidemic update from the World Health Organisation (WHO) and UNAIDS published on Tuesday November 20th. Indeed, it is good news, for it means there are fewer people to treat, and fewer to pass the infection on, than was previously thought. But the fall is not a real fall. Rather, it is due to a change in the way the size of the epidemic is estimated.
Factor that change in and the number of infected individuals has actually risen since last year, by 500,000. And even that is not necessarily bad news in the paradoxical world of AIDS. As treatment programmes are installed around the world, death rates are falling. According to the revised figures, the peak, of 2.2m a year, was in 2005. Now the figure is 2.1m. Since the only way for an infected person to drop out of the statistics in reality (as opposed to by sleight of statistical hand) is for him to die, such increased survivorship inevitably pushes up the total size of the epidemic.
The best news of all, however, is that the new figures confirm what had previously been suspected—that the epidemic has peaked. The highest annual number of new infections around the world was 3.4m in 1998. That figure has now fallen to 2.5m.
Both the change in the death rate and the change in the infection rate are partly a consequence of the natural flow and ebb of any epidemic infection. But the changes are also a reflection of the hard graft of public-health workers in many countries, which has persuaded people to modify or abandon risky behaviour, such as having unprotected sex, and has also created the medical infrastructure needed to distribute anti-retroviral drugs that can keep symptoms at bay in those who do become infected.
The revision of the figures is mainly a result of better data-collection methods, particularly in India (which accounts for half the downward revision) and five African countries (which account for another fifth). In India many more sampling points have been established, and in all countries better survey methods, relying on surveyors knocking on doors rather than asking questions at clinics, have gathered data from more representative samples of the population.
Sceptics will feel vindicated by the revision. There has been a feeling around for a while that the older survey methods were biased, and that the inflation thus produced was tolerated because it helped twang the heart-strings of potential donors. However, the structures for collecting and distributing money to combat AIDS are now well established, and accurate data are crucial if that money is not to be misdirected.
The new information also means that the goal of treatment for all who need it will be easier and cheaper to achieve. The WHO and UNAIDS are planning to publish a report on the matter early next year, but Paul De Lay, UNAIDS’s director of evidence, monitoring and policy, says that the financial requirements for 2010 will probably be about 5% less than previously estimated, and by 2015 that figure will have risen to 10%. Good news for everyone, then, donors and sufferers alike.
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