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2012年7月31日 星期二

倫敦努力以赴落實其辦奧運雄心壯志

倫敦意外擊敗巴黎、取得2012奧運舉辦權之時,股市飛漲,民眾也歡欣鼓舞;但英國是個喜愛自嘲的國家,就算是在05年成功取得舉辦權之時,部分評論家也開始質疑賽事成本和交通問題。
這次奧運究竟會不會成功?答案是會。1996年亞特蘭大奧運是場後勤和保安惡夢,但也展現了人類的無窮意志力;簡單來說,一旦運動員步上賽場,奧運會就會自行運作下去了。
不過,倫敦奧運會也給了自己更大的挑戰。2000年雪黎奧運的許多賽事是在郊區舉行,倫敦奧運卻有不少賽場位於市中心一帶。利用現有賽場的目的在於減低成本,但也讓計畫更為複雜混亂;大量觀眾會利用大眾運輸前往賽場,但倫敦的大眾運輸原本就已經擁擠不堪。
1960年至今,每場奧運都預算超支,倫敦奧運管理當局驕傲地表示支出並未超出預算,但那只是因為預算在07年增加了將近3倍。
每次奧運結束後,都會留下一些巨大、空曠又昂貴的賽場。有些人希望奧運可以改善城市和國家的形象,但倫敦已經是全歐洲旅客最多的城市,也是全球金融重鎮,其目標自然不同。
倫敦奧運希望能激勵英國年輕一代,但目前英國人似乎並沒有變得比較喜愛運動。奧運組織者希望能藉此重振東倫敦,但重新開發奧運園區,不太可能讓整個地區都受益。
在此同時,英國經濟則越來越讓人憂心。贏得舉辦權的英國既富有又自信,現在的英國則搖搖欲墜;奧運會也從全球化城市的慶典,轉而成為亟需成長的經濟體所祭出的行銷手段。(黃維德譯)


The London model
The Olympics
The city is trying to pull off a mightily ambitious games.

Jul 28th 2012 | from the print edition

WHEN London unexpectedly beat Paris in the competition to hold the 2012 Olympic games, crowds cheered, the stock market soared and politicians congratulated themselves. But Britain is a nation of self-deprecating cynics. Even on the day of the successful bid in 2005, some commentators were carping about the cost of the games and the likelihood of disruption and transport problems. A rather good BBC sitcom, "Twenty Twelve", pokes fun at bureaucratic absurdities and snafus: in the final episode, aired on July 24th, the Olympic Deliverance Commission realises that the opening ceremony's fireworks will trigger the surface-to-air missiles that guard the site. The solution? Virtual fireworks.

The recurring question is whether the games will come off. The answer is that, barring a non-humorous calamity, they will. The 1996 Atlanta games was a logistical and security nightmare, yet the city staged a showcase of extraordinary human endeavour. At each games someone runs faster, jumps higher or rows or cycles harder than anyone has ever done before. Once the athletes are on the field, the Olympics more-or-less runs itself. (Though North Korean footballers were greeted with the South's flag in an early match.)

London has nevertheless set itself a more severe challenge than almost any other host. Sydney, which held the games in 2000, staged many events on one suburban site; its population was half of London's now. In Beijing, four years ago, the government commanded its citizens to stop driving or firing up factories; it destroyed houses for highways and built the world's largest airport terminal with no debate. Londoners have repeatedly been told to stay at home, but most will probably carry on regardless. Many sporting venues are in the heart of the city as well as dispersed around it: the stands that will seat beach volleyball spectators loom above the garden of the prime minister's residence at 10 Downing Street.

Game on
Using existing arenas such as Lord's cricket ground (for archery) and Wimbledon (for tennis) was supposed to reduce the bill for the London games. It also makes the project complicated and disruptive. An unprecedented share of games-goers will travel to events by public transport, a system already bulging with local passengers. So-called "Zil lanes", 30 miles of roadway reserved for Olympic athletes, officials, sponsors and journalists, have provoked protests and the occasional delay. Any stumble in London's "public-transport games" will quickly be seized upon.

The fact that transport remains such a big question hints at how much else has been achieved, and how smoothly. Seven years on from the bid, one of the largest post-war public works projects has been delivered. A shabby part of east London has been prettified: the site of the main Olympic Park was until recently rough scrubland containing piles of rotting fridges and a dirty river. The army and police have stepped in to fill a gap left by G4S, a contractor which failed to provide enough security staff. Potholes have been filled and transport links upgraded and extended. The capital is adorned with pink signs directing spectators to events, as well as giant union flags handily recycled from the queen's Jubilee.

All this comes at a price—since 1960 every games has overshot its budget. The Olympic Delivery Authority boasts that it has brought the games in under its allotted £9.3 billion ($14.4 billion), yet it did so only because the original budget was nearly quadrupled in 2007. As with other Olympics, it is hard to quantify the opportunity cost of transport schemes that would not otherwise have been built, or a fancy velodrome that will struggle to recoup its original investment.

And what comes after is a running problem. Each host city promises a legacy; each is left with at least some large, empty, costly structures. The hope is that hosting the games will improve a city's, and a country's, image. Barcelona, which hosted the games in 1992, and Beijing used the Olympics to launch their own ambitions on the world stage. Since London is already the most visited city in Europe and a financial and business centre, its aims are different. And they have evolved.

London's bid highlighted the inspirational bequest to a generation of British youngsters. The capital is filled with injunctions to "Be part of it" and "Inspire a generation", although there are few signs that the nation is becoming fitter or more sporty, as had been hoped. Organisers also pledged to regenerate the poor East End of London with jobs and homes. The shopping is certainly better now, thanks to the arrival of a swanky new retail centre. But the redevelopment of the Olympic Park is unlikely to enrich the whole area. And the park's future remains uncertain. Plans for a technology cluster rely on attracting small, young firms that are hard to corral; proposals for new housing are still under way. Transport may help east London more than anything else: Stratford is now even better connected.

Meanwhile the economy has become more worrisome. The Britain that was awarded the games was rich and confident. The current one is ailing and needy. As The Economist went to press, the prime minister was preparing to chivvy a conference of business folk to work harder at exporting beyond sickly Europe to faster-growing emerging markets. The Olympics has turned from a celebration of a global city to a marketing pitch from an economy desperate for growth. Ludicrously expensive, administratively Byzantine and freighted with expectations, it nevertheless promises to be a popular party.

from the print edition | Britain
©The Economist Newspaper Limited 2012

2012年7月30日 星期一

車水馬龍的臺一/公共工程的浪費/ 台中市政府(腐)

全國廣播/綜合報導

臺中市政府對各營業場所的聯合公安檢查持續辦理中,但根據市府政風處的複核抽查結果發現,仍有部分業者非法擴大營業範圍卻未被查出等舊問題存在,引起市長 胡志強高度重視。胡市長認為,稽查局處發現問題後未簽報如何處理,卻留到政風處發現時,「問題就大了!」他要求追究相關人員責任,同時也指示政風處儘速檢 討一年多來八大行業的稽查情況,於下次會議提出討論。

政風處30日於公安治安聯合會議中,報告今年2至5月市府公安聯合稽查業務複核作業執行情形。處長蕭湘寧指出,各業務機關進行聯合稽查後,政風處會同外聘 消防及公安專業人員進行了7次複核,抽檢了35家視廳歌唱、理容業、飲酒店業、瘦身美容業、舞廳及推拿業等場所。結果發現,除了部分非屬聯合稽查人員違失 的缺失外,仍有稽查人員「認知偏差」及「人員疏失」等舊問題存在。

根據複核結果,有部分業者非法擴增營業範圍,遇有聯合稽查時卻以生財設備堆置在牆邊,並向稽查人員聲稱該範圍並非營業承租部分,以規避稽查。對這種情形,政風處建議應整合稽查人員共識,統一裁量標準。

對於這種非法擴大營業卻未能查獲的情形,胡志強感到相當不滿,他說,阿拉夜店大火意外發生已一年多,「市府有沒有螺絲鬆動的現象?」甚至於基層人員有沒有與業者不當互動,導致放水的情形?怎麼能讓業者非法擴大營業,「有誰能替我負責?」

胡志強進一步說,聯合稽查後發現問題,都發局、經發局若未即時簽報處理方式,卻留到政風處複核時才發現,「問題就大了!」難道要讓監察院追究,使同仁承受更大處分,甚至由首長負起責任嗎?他要求市府必須追究相關人員的責任。

副市長蕭家淇也認為,根據政風處的複核結果,最嚴重的現象是稽查人員「認知偏差」及教育不足,以及稽查人員看不出違規擴大營業,政風處卻查得出來。他並舉 「歡喜就好」酒店為例,當初稽查人員也是以二樓以上並非營業場所為理由,未能查出實際上有營業的範圍,導致最後相關人員遭監察院彈劾處分。

蕭家淇提醒相關局處,聯合稽查一定要依規定嚴格處理,絕對不可再有類似情形發生,否則難保不會再受監察院更嚴厲的處分。

都發局副總工程司紀英村表示,都發局於現場稽查時都會先查相關許可證明文件,發現不合規定部分,會先發照存證並安排複查,因為都發局部分稽查人員屬新進人員,加上夜間稽查時可能對營業範圍界限未確實掌握,將對稽查人員加強勤前教育改善。

經發局主任秘書李逸安表示,稽查時可能遇到業者將樓層間的出入門封閉,此時就會請轄區員警協助進入稽查。如果業者堅稱不是營業場所,經發局會要求業者立下切結書,並請警察再以臨檢方式複查。

為全面瞭解臺中市八大行業的稽查情形,胡市長也要求政風處儘速檢討八大行業一年多來的稽查情形,並於下次治安公安聯合會議提出來討論。

 ****

多年以前,我的《日報》可能不像現在這樣文弱。

學管理的貴在自己環境的應用和開創。我經常在我家附近看到政府的浪費和可能的舞弊,可是只能說說而已。

車水馬龍的臺一

新生南路3段靠台大附近有幾家冰果和餐飲業,我6-7年前估計年營業額破億。某燒臘店,麥當勞,臺一冰果店。前二者早就使用發票,而臺一呢?

我幾年以來一直想寫MAIL 給台北市政府,告訴他們臺一必須使用發票。妙的是20123月,電視台說,國稅局要求臺一從五月份開始開發票。臺一的老闆說,我怎麼不知道,我現在繳的稅比開發鰾的更多呢。我心想,那看你報的/政府認定的營業額是多少啦。現在每人在臺一的消費額,可能超過麥當勞,因為現在的水果冰,一碗都可能破百元。……
看官,現在是七月,臺一每天大排長龍。
我今晚探頭進去臺一,想一看究竟。
看官你一定知道,之前國稅局的說法/報導,可能只是放話而已。臺一的店員,還是在櫃台是麥當勞的2倍高的地方,收錢,找錢。發票呢?
你想一下,這跟現在鬧的行政院秘書長的弊端,說不定有些類似呢!
你或許會說,這比喻不對。我說,你怎麼知道呢!

公共工程的浪費
我舉的這案例,內行的你一定會說,這太小兒科了。我說,「以小觀大」啊。
我認為 rework (重作)是市政建設之指導原則。所以路平專案要一次次的改,才可能達到東京的馬路之規格。這些,都發生過,然而我現在後悔當時沒記下。
所以,現在勿以事小而不為。
話說去年馬路內側的街樹四周,當時發神經病為它們築高約10公分的圍牆。我一直在猜,難道考慮淹水?
終於,2周前一票人又將它們敲掉,恢復原狀。
不知怎麼一會事就是啦!我不想知道每棵樹可能要浪費數十萬元。

2012年7月27日 星期五

兩家生意好的新鞋廠: 法國和依索比亞


本周我從電視中知道兩家生意很好的新鞋廠。
一家法國Pyrenees 山區鞋的改造。產品很新潁亮麗,可惜多天之後我忘了些KEY WORDS,找到的資料有限。
一家在Ethiopia,利用廢棄輪胎當主要鞋材,年營業額2百萬美金,預計數年之後可多請3000人,年營業額2千萬美金。

What Is an Espadrille?

What Is an Espadrille? thumbnail
What Is an Espadrille?
The espadrille is a traditional flat shoe designed with a canvas or cloth upper and soles made of rope, rubber or crepe. Shoemakers in the Pyrenees region, between Spain and France, first created the espadrille. By tradition, the espadrille had flat soles made of jute or esparto grass, a plant that produces fine, tough strands.

Other People Are Reading



Ethiopia firm recycling tyres into shoes does big business via internet

SoleRebels offers inspiration to Africans by thriving in global market

solerebels sandals
Ethiopian entrepreneur Bethlehem Tilahun Alemu checks a pair of sandals at her workshop in Addis Ababa. Photograph: Aaron Maasho/AFP/Getty Images
Old truck tyres never die, they just turn into sandals. For decades that has been the tradition in Ethiopia, where everyone from farmers to guerrilla fighters has fashioned worn-out road rubber into cheap, long-lasting footwear.
But now, thanks to a young woman entrepreneur who has combined the internet's selling power with nimble business practices more often associated with Asian countries, the idea has been turned into an unlikely international hit. By adding funky cotton and leather uppers to recycled tyre soles, Bethlehem Tilahun Alemu has sold many thousands of pairs of handmade flip-flops, boat shoes, loafers and Converse-style trainers to foreign customers.
In the run-up to Christmas, workers at the soleRebels "factory" – a small house on the outskirts of the Ethiopian capital – were frantically cutting, sewing and gluing to fulfil internet purchases from customers as far away as Canada and Australia. Alemu's brother packed pairs of cotton and suede trainers into a box about to be couriered to Amazon.com, the company's main customer, which receives the shoes in the US three to five days after placing its bulk order. "We are sitting in Addis Ababa but acting like an American company," said Alemu, an excitable 30-year-old former accountant who is fond of reeling off the numbers that illustrate her firm's rapid growth.
Just five years after start-up, soleRebels employs 45 full-time staff who can produce up to 500 pairs of shoes a day. More will be hired after next month once the footwear range, priced between £21 and £40, goes on sale online in the UK and Japan on Amazon's new footwear website javari.co.uk. The company's sales target for 2010 is an impressive £300,000, but Alemu's ultimate goal – one she seems deadly serious about – is far loftier: to become "the Timberland or Skechers of Africa".
The success of soleRebels, which has thrived in the global market with no outside support other than a government line of credit to help meet large orders, is challenging preconceptions both about Ethiopia and the best way to lift its people out of poverty.
Abroad, the landlocked country still suffers from an image of a hungry and often helpless nation, with 6 million people requiring food relief and billions of dollars of aid each year. But where some might see despair Alemu saw inspiration. While brainstorming for an Ethiopian-flavoured product that could be produced in a sustainable manner, she remembered the truck tyre sandals, which were used by local fighters who repelled Italian soldiers many decades ago, as well as the rebels who marched into Addis Ababa in 1991 and today run the government. "Recycling is a way of life here – you don't throw things away that you can use again and again," she said. "I wanted to build on that idea."
At the time other Ethiopian shoe companies were struggling to compete with cheap imports from China. SoleRebels decided to concentrate instead on the export market, where Alemu reasoned that customers would pay good money for uniquely designed products. She found a supplier who could deliver old truck tyres and tubes, and hired women to spin, weave and dye pieces of locally-grown cotton, jute and hemp using skills passed down through generations.
Tracking international shoe fashion trends on the web, Alemu designed a range of footwear. Some are simple cotton-covered or leather covered flip-flops and sandals with names like Class Act and Gruuv Thong. The bestselling Urban Runner takes inspiration from the classic Converse All Star "lo-top" trainer, with a piece of inner tubing for the toecap and organic cotton-covered footbeds. Virtually all the materials are locally sourced, including the camouflage material used on some shoes, which is cut from old army uniforms.
After receiving international fair trade certification, Alemu began bombarding US stores and websites with emails and samples. Shops such as Whole Foods and Urban Outfitters agreed to stock the shoes, which were imported duty-free under the US African Growth and Opportunity Act, helping prices stay competitive. As word spread, individual customers began buying directly from the soleRebels website - the Christmas order from Canada included a scanned trace of the customer's foot - with the shoes usually arriving by courier from Ethiopia within a week. But business really took off when Amazon signed up as a customer. Alemu is an evangelist for the online business model, saying it allows the company "to understand the market needs and demands in real time". SoleRebels negotiates directly with retailers, doing everything from ordering processing to credit collection itself, and ensures most of the final sales price remains in Ethiopia. As a result, Alemu said, she can pay her staff between £1.20 a day for trainees and £7 a day for experienced artisans – good wages by local standards. In turn, the government earns more taxes, spurring more development.
"In Ethiopia we have become used to taking money from the west, to always getting help," said Alemu. "That does not make for a sustainable economy. We need to solve our own problems."
The success has enabled soleRebels to begin construction of a solar-powered factory near the current workshop, to allow for expanded production. While it will better showcase the company's eco-friendly methods, that's not the main reason customers like the shoes, Alemu said. "People buy soleRebels because they are good, not just because they are green or from Ethiopia. Our product speaks for itself."

a fortiori analysis




a fortiori[a for・ti・o・ri]

  • 発音記号[ei fɔ`ːrʃiɔ'ːrai]
  •  (ä fôr'tē-ôr'ē, ā fōr'tē-ō'') pronunciation
    adv.
    For a still stronger reason; all the more.

    [Latin : ā, ab, from + fortiōrī, ablative of fortior, stronger.]

    (Latin, from the stronger) Phrase used for ‘all the more’ or ‘even more so’: if all donkeys bray, then a fortiori all young donkeys bray.

((ラテン語))いっそう有力な理由で(for a stronger reason);なおさら.


a fortiori analysis

  

Definition

In decision theory, an analysis made to intentionally favor alternative solutions when compared to the solution adjudged as best. The alternatives are deliberately weighted to make them look better. If the adjudged-best solution still remains the best, its position as the likely choice is further strengthened. 'A fortiori' is Latin for, 'even more so' or 'more conclusively.



2012年7月26日 星期四

The parable of the ox – or why it is hard to castrate a bull market


HC案: 這是一則關於股市/牛市的喻言

公牛和市場The parable of the ox – or why it is hard to castrate a bull market作者:英國《金融時報》專欄作家約翰•凱

In 1906, the great statistician Francis Galton observed a competition to guess the weight of an ox at a country fair. Eight hundred people entered. Galton, being the kind of man he was, ran statistical tests on the numbers. He discovered that the average guess (1,197lb) was extremely close to the actual weight (1,198lb) of the ox. This story was told by James Surowiecki, in his entertaining book The Wisdom of Crowds.
1906年,偉大的統計學家弗朗西斯•高爾頓(Francis Galton)在一個鄉下集市上觀察了一場猜測一頭公牛重量的比賽。有八百人參加。出於職業敏感,高爾頓對數據進行了統計檢驗。他發現,猜測的平均值(11971磅)非常接近公牛的實際重量(11981磅)。詹姆斯•蘇洛維爾奇(James Surowiecki)在他有趣的著作《群體智慧》(The Wisdom of Crowds)一書中講述了這個故事。
Not many people know the events that followed. A few years later, the scales seemed to become less and less reliable. Repairs were expensive; but the fair organiser had a brilliant idea. Since attendees were so good at guessing the weight of an ox, it was unnecessary to repair the scales. The organiser would simply ask everyone to guess the weight, and take the average of their estimates.
沒有多少人知道後來發生的故事。幾年後,磅秤似乎變得越來越不可靠。修理磅秤耗資不菲,不過集市組織方想出了一個絕妙的主意。既然參與者如此擅長猜測公牛的體重,那就沒有必要修理磅秤了。組織方只要讓每個人都猜測公牛體重,取他們估計的平均數就可以了。
A new problem emerged, however. Once weight-guessing competitions became the rage, some participants tried to cheat. They even sought privileged information from the farmer who had bred the ox. It was feared that if some people had an edge, others would be reluctant to enter the weight-guessing competition. With only a few entrants, you could not rely on the wisdom of the crowd. The process of weight discovery would be damaged.
不過如此一來又出現了新問題。一旦猜體重比賽風行起來,就會有部分參與者試圖作弊。他們甚至向養牛的農民尋求機密信息。人們擔心,如果有人佔據了優勢,其他人就不願意參與猜體重比賽了。如果只有少數人參與,那就不能依賴群體的智慧了。獲知體重的過程就會受到破壞。
Strict regulatory rules were introduced. The farmer was asked to prepare three monthly bulletins on the development of his ox. These bulletins were posted on the door of the market for everyone to read. If the farmer gave his friends any other information about the beast, that was also to be posted on the market door. Anyone who entered the competition with knowledge concerning the ox that was not available to the world at large would be expelled from the market. In this way, the integrity of the weight-guessing process would be maintained.
由此推出了嚴格的監管規定。農民被要求就他的公牛生長情況準備三份月度公告。這些公告張貼在市場的門口,供所有人閱讀。如果農民向他的朋友透露了任何關於這頭牲畜的信息,這些信息也必須張貼在市場門口。任何參加比賽的人如果知道公眾不了解的公牛信息,就會被驅逐出市場。這樣一來,猜體重過程的公正性得以維護。
Professional analysts scrutinised the contents of these regulatory announcements and advised their clients on their implications. They wined and dined farmers; once the farmers were required to be careful about the information they disclosed, however, these lunches became less fruitful.
專業分析人士仔細審查這些監管公告的內容,就其意義向他們的顧客提供諮詢。這些專業人士請農民喝酒吃飯。但一旦農民被要求謹慎對待他們披露的信息,飯局的成果就不是那麼豐碩了。
Some brighter analysts realised that understanding the nutrition and health of the ox was not that useful anyway. What mattered were the guesses of the bystanders. Since the beast was no longer being weighed, the key to success lay not in correctly assessing its weight, but rather in correctly assessing what other people would guess. Or what others would guess others would guess. And so on.
一些更聰明的分析人士認識到,了解公牛的營養和健康狀況不再有用。重要的是旁觀者如何猜測。由於組織方不再稱公牛的體重,所以成功的關鍵不在於正確估計公牛的體重,而是正確地估計其他人如何猜測。或者說,其他人如何猜測其他人怎麼猜測。如此擴展下去。
Some, such as old Farmer Buffett, claimed that the results of this process were more and more divorced from the realities of ox-rearing. He was ignored, however. True, Farmer Buffett's beasts did appear healthy and well fed, and his finances were ever more prosperous: but, it was agreed, he was a simple countryman who did not really understand how markets work.
有些人,例如老農民巴菲特(Buffett)聲稱,這一過程的結果日益偏離養牛的現實。但沒有人理會他。確實,農民巴菲特的牲畜看上去很健康,餵養得當,收入前景也越來越好。但大家公認他只是一名頭腦簡單的鄉下人,不明白市場的運作機制。
International bodies were established to define the rules for assessing the weight of the ox.
於是國際組織得以設立,規定了評估公牛體重的規則。
There were two competing standards – generally accepted ox-weighing principles and international ox-weighing standards. However, both agreed on one fundamental principle, which followed from the need to eliminate the role of subjective assessment by any individual. The weight of the ox was officially defined as the average of everyone's guesses.
存在兩種相互競爭的標準:普遍接受的公​​牛體重評估原則和國際公牛體重評估標準。不過,兩項標準都認同一項基本原則,即有必要消除任何個人進行的主觀評估。公牛的體重被正式規定為所有人猜測的平均值。
One difficulty was that sometimes there were few, or even no, guesses of the oxen's weight. But that problem was soon overcome. Mathematicians from the University of Chicago developed models from which it was possible to estimate what, if there had actually been many guesses as to the weight of the animal, the average of these guesses would have been. No knowledge of animal husbandry was required, only a powerful computer.
有一個難題是,有時只有很少的人、或者根本沒有人來猜公牛的體重。不過這個問題很快就被攻克了。芝加哥大學(University of Chicago)的數學家開發了模型。這個模型可以估計出,假如對公牛的體重真的有過很多猜測,這些猜測的平均值會是多少。如此一來,完全不需要了解牲畜飼養的知識,只要有台強大的電腦即可。
By this time, there was a large industry of professional weight guessers, organisers of weight-guessing competitions and advisers helping people to refine their guesses. Some people suggested that it might be cheaper to repair the scales, but they were derided: why go back to relying on the judgment of a single auctioneer when you could benefit from the aggregated wisdom of so many clever people?
此時已湧現出一個龐大的行業,其中包括專業的體重猜測師、猜體重比賽組織者、以及幫助人們完善猜測的顧問。有人建議,修理磅秤的成本可能更低,但這些人遭到奚落:既然能夠從如此多聰明人的群體智慧中受益,又何必回到只依賴一名拍賣人的判斷的日子呢?
And then the ox died. Among all this activity, no one had remembered to feed it.
接下來,公牛死了。在這些紛紛擾擾的活動中,沒有人記得去餵牠。

譯者/倪衛國


談 陳寬仁著的《工程經濟學》系列短文之1-2






  任何一項工程建設都是一項經濟活動,要在許多可行方案中選擇最適宜者實施,已屬一般常識。但是,「工程經濟」是在選擇過程中所必須採用的方法,是現代工程 師必須具備的知識,也是公私機構中計畫人員的重要工具。本書行文平易,可讀性高。初版發行三十年來廣受各學校機關之歡迎。九十三年全書重新排印,增添新資 料並編入大量國內建設案例。閱讀過程中倍感「本土化」之親切,對於「臺灣創造經濟奇蹟」也會有更深刻的體驗。
本書可供大專院校作為教科書,公務人員、企業團體用為訓練教材。個人自修皆極適宜。

陳寬仁
學歷/美國蒙特瑞海軍研究院系統分析碩士
經歷/中正理工學院教授
   中原大學工業工程學系教授
   行政院科技顧問組(李國鼎辦公室)研究員
現職/企業管理顧問
著作/自然科學發展史(譯 廣文書局)
品質系統中的人性因素(中華民國品質學會)
品質人語(中華民國品質學會)



陳寬仁著的《工程經濟學》的大貢獻和小缺失
系列短文之1


1975年初版開始,陳寬仁著的《工程經濟學》就是台灣學界的重要教科書。2004年臺北的三民書局出版修正三版,版權頁上有各版次的說明,我估計銷售一定破萬本或數萬本。2006年我有幸取得陳教授一本贈書,一直將它寶愛。我還夢想,如果有第四版,說不定可考慮請我幫忙。

所以這次祝壽文章中,我打算花比較詳細的篇幅討論此書。這是我們這群所謂好事之徒比較不同的視角之一。(初稿在舊電腦中,可我打算9月前重新重談此書而不參考舊稿。)

為什麼我如此大言不慚?因為「工程經濟學」是我1973年以來很關心的主題,我更希望從系統(分析)學和經濟學的角度重新探討它
80年代在工業工程實務的模範公司Philips 公司上班,有些實務經驗。我的相關的著作和翻譯 :
《品質成本合理化》鍾漢清編著,台北:中華民國品質管制學會,1984【這本書是此行之創舉】
鍾漢忠、鍾漢清編譯《投資報酬率與財務決策之應用》,台北:清華管理科學圖書中心,1985
鍾漢清編譯《財務策略與成本分析》,台北:清華管理科學圖書中心,1986。【這本書是此行之創舉】

更重要的是,我一直關心廣義的經濟學和系統學。 這方面可資應用的相當多,譬如說諾貝爾經濟學獎得主的經濟心理學。Thinking, Fast and Slow (Daniel Kahneman)《思考,快與慢》...

…….當然,一些認知偏差甚至公然出現在最為自然的情景中。比如卡納曼所說的規劃謬誤”(planning fallacy):我們傾向於高估利潤和低估成本,因而愚蠢地施行一些存在很大風險的方案。例如,在2002年,美國人改建廚房,預期這項工作平均花費 18,658美元,但他們最後卻花費了38,769美元。

"
規劃謬誤只是一種普遍存在的樂觀偏差的一個表現卡納曼寫道,這很可能是最重大的認知偏差。在某種意義上,一種傾向於樂觀主義的偏差顯然是 糟糕的,因為它帶來錯誤的信念——比如:是我們在掌控運氣而不是運氣在玩弄我們。但是,如果沒有這一控的錯覺,我們在早上甚至都沒辦法起床吧?比起 與之相對應的更立足於現實的人,樂觀主義者更具心理彈性,具備更強大的免疫系統,平均壽命更長。……

大貢獻和小缺失1
陳寬仁著的《工程經濟學》的大貢獻其實相當多,有些或許是作者的無心插柳之作而我認為受益。
本書多少提到台灣的一些管理學之發展史。譬如說,「將現代化的工業工程之理論及技術有系統的引入國內,應屬台灣肥料公司的湯元吉先生。(王雲五先生主持的華國出版社印行一套《台肥企管叢書》,由湯先生主編。)--- 陳寬仁著《工程經濟學》修正三版,臺北:三民,2004,頁3
陳老師只提它,不過我們查下網路還可發現下面四本:
《合乎人情的管理(台肥企管叢書1)》,Stowers, 陳克文譯,華國1951.5印行
《薪工管理(台肥企管叢書2)》,Ells, 徐道鄰譯,華國1951.7印行.
《費堯管理(台肥企管叢書3)》,費堯著, 徐道鄰譯,華國1951.10印行.
管理實務(台肥企管叢書10)》,Kalsem, 孔廣偉等譯,華國1953.8

這四本的費堯管理(徐道鄰譯)的作者費堯和譯者都是名人呢,而此一翻譯本一直被埋沒,譬如說我從70年代初讀管理學史卻一直都不知道它 (70年代另有留日的老師的翻譯本)
叢書的主編者在文學,化學,管理學的貢獻一直為台灣所忽略。包括王雲五做為中國(科學的)管理的重要引進者。譬如說鍾漢清的譯藝: 湯元吉
hctranslations.blogspot.com/.../blog-. (201263他晚年還為徐氏基金會主編一系列科學叢書 他可能是台肥公司的創辦人 所以也寫了產業研究和企業管理的書 台肥成立於194651日,當時為 ...)

小缺失1
326:
1966年,「日本東京帝國大學」一位木暮正夫教授……
此段小缺失有二:一來缺引文資料,二來「日本帝國」已在二戰後消滅。




 陳老師給我一回饋:
"工程經濟是國家資源分配的工具 這會在《八分之六》中詳述"


陳寬仁著的《工程經濟學》的大貢獻和小缺失
系列短文之2


 陳寬仁著的《工程經濟學》(修正三版,2004) 的優點之一是他自製的「中文名詞引得」(442-53) 和「英文名詞引得」(454-58) 。這在中文書籍中比較罕見。其實,「案例研討目次」也是作者用心處(2)
「引得」的一些小缺失包括: 缺乏對關鍵詞的連續頁數標示,譬如說,「風險」(9) :…259,260,261,262,263…..不知道是否該為259-63,而不是分立的字眼。「系統」和「系統分析」在全書中只各初現一次,這或許是作者成書過程的「立意」比較偏傳統的教科書的想法。我70年代翻譯過美國MIT 出版社的一本用「系統分析」方式探討紐約市的大型土木工程專案。同樣的,benefit cost ratio (analysis243) 是否為Rand 公司在1961年所創的,我很保留,70年代台灣銀行的經濟學翻譯叢書即有一本這樣的書名。

還有許多小錯,譬如說,alternative 有時稱為可行方案,有時只稱為方案。引得頁442 有二個英文相同 (certainty)而中文不同的「不一定」和「不確定」。這可能是作者很微妙的說法。不過我看第345頁的「不一定」,或許英文該是uncertainties。或許同樣的,(只有)50有「腦力激盪」和「腦力激盪術」 (這是作者對imagineering 的獨特翻譯。不過他可能忘記brainstorming 本身有它自己的「腦力激盪術」。





這本書的一大特色就是有39個「陳氏」「案例研討」。體制界於西方商學院的「個案研究」(case study,如著名的哈佛大學商學院的) 和有些書的side-bar 方式之間 (譬如說,拙譯的《戴明領導手冊》的方式) 。這是作者在諸多限制條件下的匠心獨具。我聽說許多讀者都覺得它們有趣而有用。然而,「陳氏個案」法也有許多小缺失,而這是我很不敢肯定批評的,可能要另寫書來談它。現在簡單地舉個例,你現在從Google 中文新聞找到某中國航空公司「東航客機發動機又被鳥撞 所幸飛機已安全降落,20120717日」或同日「東航航班降落時遇“憤怒小鳥” 所幸乘客無恙」: 

……..雖然所有機場都不間斷地開展驅鳥工作,但這種意外事件仍難避免。有統計數據顯示,全世界每年大約發生1萬次鳥撞飛機事件。自1960年以來,世界范圍內由于飛鳥的撞擊至少造成了78架民用飛機損失、120名飛行員喪生。(石凱峰)

本書第51頁有《飛鳥撞擊飛機》案例研討,短短的約五百來字,含歐美日和台灣的研究和報導,含蓋的時間是「數十年前,美國國防部曾以經費資助我國內某一大學……. 」。

或許本書的「案例研討」缺的是一些個案的「檢討分析」,這在某荷蘭公司的方法名稱為post-calculation (預算成本叫pre-calculation) 。讀者知道「品質管理」或「學習型組織」中的PDSA循環,當然可了解「工程經濟分析」不只是PLANNING 階段重要,而把STUDY 交給審計單位,或乾脆讓「蚊子館」或「豆腐工程」成為經濟學的「外部效應」。又「案例研討」都以文字或詩歌(有宋代汴梁城的個案)的方式處理,也有它的限制。


2012年7月25日 星期三

Rolls-Royce Motor Cars

Rolls-Royce Motor Cars

Rolls-Royce is an English brand; it may refer to:


 
與勞斯萊斯親密接觸
作者:白領時裝有限公司董事長 苗鴻冰
2012722,中國企業家俱樂部代表團來到英國美麗的鄉村古德伍德。這裏是英國國寶級汽車品牌——勞斯萊斯(Rolls-Royce)——的總部。
勞斯萊斯全球CEO托斯頓•穆勒•烏特弗斯特意安排在古德伍德莊園舉行歡迎儀式,在這座占地7萬畝、歷經300餘年、里士滿公爵的官邸拉開了中國企業家訪英之旅的序幕。烏特弗斯在致辭中說:“我很榮幸地站在這裏,歡迎來自中國企業家俱樂部的朋友,你們把英國訪問的首站選擇在勞斯萊斯讓我們倍感驕傲和榮幸。”
第二天一早,我們參觀了勞斯萊斯總部。勞斯萊斯全球溝通總監和製造總監分別介紹了這一品牌自1906年誕生以來的傳奇故事。在專業講解員的陪同介紹下,我們參觀了勞斯萊斯的生產線;在訓練有素的試駕官陪同下,在古德伍德莊園試駕了勞斯萊斯最新車型。
勞斯萊斯是世界頂級豪華轎車廠商,1906年成立於英國,公司創始人為Frederick Henry Royce(亨利·萊斯)和Charles Stewart Rolls(查理·勞斯)。除了製造汽車,勞斯萊斯還是世界上最領先的發動機製造者,波音客機用的就是勞斯萊斯的發動機。2003年,勞斯萊斯汽車公司被寶馬(BMW)接手。
與勞斯萊斯“親密接觸”兩天下來,我有以下一些感慨:
1、勞斯萊斯的成功,得益於它一直秉承的英國傳統造車藝術,以及它對細節和品質絕不妥協的精神。
2、勞斯萊斯與眾不同之處,在於它大量使用手工。每一輛勞斯萊斯汽車要經過60雙手、450多個小時的精心打造,創造出近乎完美的作品。據統計,製作一個方向盤要15個小時,裝配一輛車身需要31個小時,安裝一台發動機要6天。正因為如此,它在裝配線上每分鐘只能移動6英寸。製作一輛四門車要兩個半月,每一輛車都要經過5000英里的測試。
3、勞斯萊斯對客戶的尊重做到了極致。客戶被允許參與到設計中,不光享受了設計的樂趣,更得到了極具個性的專屬產品。
4、品牌的附加值遠遠大於產品本身價格,最重要的是滿足客戶對美好生活的浪漫憧憬。勞斯萊斯賣給客戶的不僅僅是一輛車,更是具有收藏價值和升值潛力的藝術品。
5、勞斯萊斯使體驗成為無聲的推銷工具。一但有過體驗,便期待擁有。每一位試駕、試乘或參觀的人都會產生購買的衝動,是典型的體驗式行銷。
6、勞斯萊斯的工作餐廳是一個平等輕鬆的好地方,CEO、高管 、製造工人都在一起用餐,隨時輕鬆打招呼。充分體現了勞斯萊斯對員工和手工藝的尊重。
7、尊重客戶文化,設計出讓客戶親近並感動的作品。比如:當中國一躍成為全球最大買家時,勞斯萊斯經過對中國文化的深入研究,設計生產了“黑紅幻影系列”和“龍系列“等極具中國美學特色的產品,深受中國人的喜愛。
8、勞斯萊斯通過企業故事講述品牌的歷史和價值。無論是CEO還是陪駕官,一直驕傲地講述關於品牌的不為人知的美好故事,讓聽眾產生無限敬意。這是一種智慧、藝術和行銷的完美相遇。
9、勞斯萊斯雖然是個傳統品牌,但追求領先技術和近乎完美的精湛工藝。無論是獨立空調系統,還是全方位的電子眼預報系統,還是自動關門的小按鈕,無不體現勞斯萊斯一直堅持的高品質奢侈追求。
我在想:當德國的寶馬和英國的勞斯萊斯牽手,他們製造的絕不是一輛汽車,而是人們對美的憧憬和嚮往。我由衷地想說:向你們致敬。
Rolls-Royce Motor Cars is a British manufacturer of luxury automobiles based at the Goodwood plant in West Sussex, England. The factory is located across from the historic Goodwood Circuit in Goodwood, West Sussex, England. It is a wholly owned subsidiary of BMW and is the current producer of Rolls-Royce branded automobiles, whose historical production dates back to 1904 through Rolls-Royce Limited and Rolls-Royce Motors.

Contents

History

Predecessors

The history of Rolls-Royce began as Rolls-Royce Limited which started manufacturing cars in 1903. The factory at Goodwood is the fifth Rolls-Royce UK based automobile production facility since 1904. The previous four were located in Manchester, London, Derby, and Crewe.

BMW ownership of Rolls-Royce marque

In 1998, owners Vickers decided to sell Rolls-Royce Motors. The most likely buyer was BMW, who already supplied engines and other components for Rolls-Royce and Bentley cars, but BMW's final offer of £340m was beaten by Volkswagen's £430m.
A stipulation in the ownership documents of Rolls-Royce dictated that Rolls-Royce plc, the aero-engine maker would retain certain essential trademarks (the Rolls-Royce name and logo) if the automotive division was sold. Rolls-Royce plc chose to license not to VW but to BMW, with whom it had recently had joint business ventures. VW had bought rights to the "Spirit of Ecstasy" bonnet (hood) ornament and the shape of the radiator grille, but it lacked rights to the Rolls-Royce name necessary to build the cars. Likewise, BMW lacked rights to the grille and mascot. BMW bought an option on the trademarks, licensing the name and "RR" logo for £40m, a deal that many commentators thought was a bargain for possibly the most valuable property in the deal. VW claimed that it had only really wanted Bentley anyway, as Bentley at the time was the higher-volume brand and moved twice as many cars as Rolls-Royce.
The situation was tilted in BMW's favor, as they could withdraw their engine supply with just 12 months notice, which was insufficient time for VW to re-engineer the Rolls-Royce cars to use VW's own engines. BMW and VW arrived at a solution. From 1998 to 2002 BMW would continue to supply engines for the cars and would allow use of the names by VW, but this would cease on 1 January 2003. From that date, only BMW would be able to name cars "Rolls-Royce", and VW's former Rolls-Royce/Bentley division would build only cars called "Bentley." This resulted in 2003 BMW opening a new manufacturing plant on the Goodwood Estate close to Chichester, West Sussex.

Recent

In 2011, Rolls-Royce Motor Cars sold 3,538 cars, up 31 percent on the year before, dominated by Phantom and Ghost models sold, beating the previous record from 1978. The strong sales growth occurred in the Asia Pacific region by up 47 percent, followed by Britain with up 30 percent and Middle East sales up 23 percent.[1]

Cars

Rolls-Royce Phantom Extended Wheelbase in use at the Peninsula Hotel in Hong Kong
1931 Rolls-Royce Phantom II
  • 2003+ Phantom (saloon)—Launched in January 2003 at Detroit's North American International Auto Show, this is the first model from Rolls-Royce Motor Cars Limited, a BMW Group subsidiary having no corporate connection with the previous Rolls-Royce Motors company apart from the trademarks mentioned above. The car has a 6.75 L V12 engine sourced from BMW, but most components are unique to the car. Parts are sourced from Continental Europe and the UK. Assembly, leather work, wood work, and finishing is carried out in a new factory in Goodwood near Chichester, Sussex. The cars are available in normal and extended wheelbase, and prices start at about £250,000.
  • 2010+ Ghost (saloon)—Rolls Royce announced in September 2006 that it will develop a new four-door model named Ghost. The Ghost will be smaller than the previous Rolls Royce automobile launched, the Phantom. Only 20% of the components would be sourced from BMW F01 7 Series, and it will be positioned below the Phantom and with a price range between US$250,000 and US$280,000.[2]
For earlier models, see the List of Rolls-Royce motor cars and the timeline below.

Prototypes

2012年7月21日 星期六

馬政府不要毀中鋼而自毀/ Lessons for Some Firms:Nokia and others

Fitch Downgrades Nokia
Fitch Ratings downgraded Nokia, saying it couldn't find any signs that the Finnish handset can stabilize its declining revenue and profit margins, and warned it might cut its rating further.
 Nokia's Red Ink Worsens
Embattled Finnish mobile handset maker Nokia extended its heavy losses as shipments of its new line of Lumia brand phones failed to make up for slumping sales of its older models, but its cash position proved stronger than expected.



馬政府不要毀中鋼而自毀

林益世 讓政府亂了馬腳?
 “x 先生/小姐!” 多人可入座…….

馬英九團隊毀中鋼的第一步就是執政之後,馬上去該公司找張董事長密談,結果逼不願配合的張董事長下台。
再讓吳敦義和林益世等團隊上下其手……

一個真正懂得反省的人,或想在歷史上不留下臭名的人,應該思考我的政黨KMT貪腐成性,所以`必須交出黨產、讓中鋼的公股完全釋出,讓它不必設什麼國會聯絡人等等…….







July 13, 2012 -- 3:00 p.m. EDT

TECHNOLOGY News-Sharing Site Digg Sells for $500,000
Betaworks has agreed to buy news-sharing website Digg, in an attempt to revive a company that was early to social media but outmaneuvered by rivals.

 
TECHNOLOGY Apple Rejoins Green Registry
Apple said it was re-registering its products with a voluntary registry of green electronics, reversing course after a flood of criticism.

 

AllThingsD: Microsoft today launched an angel investment and business incubator. It will be called the Bing Fund, named for the company's search engine.

 
TECHNOLOGY Yahoo Probes Password Theft
Yahoo is investigating a data breach that allowed a hacker group to download about 453,000 unencrypted user names and passwords in another black eye for the Internet company.

 
TECHNOLOGY Nokia Shuffles China Operations
Nokia is closing two regional sales offices in China and laying off staff as it reorganizes its operations in the world's largest smartphone market.

 
TECHNOLOGY LG Display Pays Most in LCD Price-Fixing Settlement
LG Display agreed to pay the largest sum—$380 million—among defendants to settle a U.S. case in which it and other manufacturers were accused of price fixing in the LCD market.

 
TECHNOLOGY Competition Worries Snag Verizon Deal
The Justice Department is holding up Verizon Wireless's $3.9 billion deal to acquire cable-company airwaves over concerns a related agreement will hurt competition for broadband Internet service.

2012年7月20日 星期五

Piracy



中國船員遭海盜劫持續:曾有人被打斷手臂和腿


國際日報 - 4 小時前
7月17日,被索馬利亞海盜扣押長達19個月的台灣“旭富一號”漁船的26名船員獲釋,其中包括14名中國船員。中國駐坦尚尼亞大使館領事部工作 ...
我漁船遭海盜劫持19個月船東為贖人傾家蕩產鉅亨網
旭富一號船長24日返台聯合新聞網
海盜猖狂台灣漁船近年遇劫多自由時報


 Piracy
Germany plans to regulate anti-piracy security firms

Sea piracy off the coast of Somalia has dropped dramatically, in part as
the result of private security forces accompanying the ships. The German
government now wants to regulate their certification.

The www.dw.de Article
http://nl.dw.de/DTS?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.dw.de%2Fdw%2Farticle%2F0%2C%2C16109731%2C00.html%3Fmaca%3Den-newsletter_en_germany-light-2089-txt-newsletter&emv_key=F9X7CqlU1p8G8SA9MKJdGKwY54O102IMNfcStGb5lw8W0bBhOG5mpqVsje_Hhe-g21rj



2012年7月18日 星期三

英國保全業大咖 G4S 的奧運會契約之教訓

Get a grip on Olympics, MPs urgeOlympic Park

MPs warn the government to "get a grip" on security firm G4S to ensure the Olympic Games run smoothly.

G4S profile

G4S at Wimbledon (file photo) G4S are used to providing staff for high-profile sporting events such as Wimbledon

Related Stories

"Securing Your World" is G4S's maxim. But it looks like the world's largest security firm has failed to secure its own world, at least as far as London 2012 is concerned.
About 3,500 extra troops have had to be deployed after G4S admitted it would not be able to provide enough security staff for the Games.
Police have also had to deploy extra officers at short notice from eight UK forces to do Olympic security work after the company's staff failed to turn up to venues.
The fiasco has been embarrassing and has heaped pressure on Mr Buckles to quit. More than £400m has been wiped off the firm's value since the staff shortfall came to light.
Mr Buckles said he was "bitterly disappointed" at his company's failure to meet the terms of its contract, but said he would not step down.
"I have been here 27 years. I am very committed to staying. It just depends, doesn't it?" he told a newspaper.
Mr Buckles has described his leadership style as: "no excuses, please," and considers Margaret Thatcher his business hero.
His salary last year was £830,000, according to the firm's 2011 annual report.
What is G4S? G4S has 657,000 employees in more than 125 countries and makes its money from companies and governments outsourcing "businesses processes" - placing security staff where there aren't enough police, for example, or prison officers where those are lacking.
Government contracts accounted for 27% of its £7.5bn turnover in 2011, and it had hoped to have a bumper 2012 as a result of its work on the Olympics.
"We protect rock stars and sports stars, people and property, including some of the world's most important buildings and events" is how it presents its business - security made sexy, almost.
But G4S has run into difficulty with high-profile contracts before.
Last October, inmates in Birmingham Prison, under G4S's management since it became the first British prison to be transferred into private control, were locked in their cells for almost a day after a set of keys fitting every cell door went missing.
G4S runs seven prisons in England and Wales and is eyeing new business as police forces, under budgetary pressures, are looking to outsource to private sector companies.
G4S van G4S works in 125 countries
The firm also made a high-profile bid in November to buy Danish rival ISS, only to abandon it following a shareholder revolt.
The botched take-over cost the company £55m, and raised questions about Mr Buckles' judgment of pursuing such a deal in the first place, as G4S had been already performing well.
Mr Buckles later said of the debacle that it was "one of the most bruising experiences of [his] life".
The conduct of G4S's security staff has also come under scrutiny.
G4S and three of its guards were investigated over the death of Jimmy Mubenga, an Angolan asylum seeker who died while being deported from the UK by G4S in 2010.
However, the Crown Prosecution Service said it would take no action against the three guards or G4S as there was insufficient evidence to bring any charges.
Soldiering on G4S is contracted by London 2012 organisers Locog to supply 13,000 staff to the Olympics.
The company, by its own admission, stands to lose up to £50m on the contract, worth a total of about £280m, after being unable to provide the 10,000 staff it had been contracted to deliver.
Now 3,500 British soldiers are being deployed at two weeks' notice to fulfil G4S's pledge to keep the games safe, and during the time many of them had planned to take their summer holidays.
Home Secretary Theresa May told the Commons that there was a clause in Locog's contract with G4S that sets out a penalty if they do not fulfil their agreed responsibilities, though she said that was a matter between G4S and Locog.

arbiter, dress, Tightening the Belt, arbiter elegantiarum


 Goldman to Tighten Belt Further
Goldman Sachs's second-quarter profit fell 11% as sluggish demand for deal making put a damper on investment-banking revenue, but the results still beat analysts' estimates.



Tightening the Belt
2008

Is This the World’s Cheapest Dress?



Published: May 1, 2008

IF rock purists were unsettled last month by the opening of a designer boutique on the site of what once was CBGB, the hard-core Bowery nightclub, imagine how they will feel reading the next sentence: The old Tower Records space a few blocks away on Broadway, for two decades the spot for adolescent reveries of dance, pop and punk, has been leased by Steve & Barry’s, a clothing chain where everything costs less than $10.
Skip to next paragraph

Tony Cenicola/The New York Times
A dress designed (and worn) by Sarah Jessica Parker and sold at Steve & Barry’s for $8.98.

Multimedia


Josh Haner/The New York Times
“To be great, you have to have these ridiculous, insane prices, and not sacrifice quality,” said Steve Shore, left, with Barry Prevor.

Steve & Barry’s
From top, Venus Williams, Laird Hamilton, Sarah Jessica Parker, Stephon Marbury and Amanda Bynes

Steve & Barry’s, for the uninitiated, is to fashion what Tower once was to music. Steve & Barry’s is manna, a store that sells stylish celebrity-branded clothes at prices that are absurdly inexpensive, lower than those at Old Navy, H & M or Forever 21, undercutting even Wal-Mart by as much as half.

manna, undercut,celebrity

At its 264 barnlike stores in malls across the country, including the perpetually mobbed one at the Manhattan Mall in Midtown, Steve & Barry’s offers an assortment of flowery sundresses designed by Sarah Jessica Parker ($8.98), heart-printed hoodies by the Nickelodeon alumna Amanda Bynes ($8.98) and basketball shoes by the New York Knicks point guard Stephon Marbury ($8.98). Lines at the registers are often 20 deep.
The question on everyone’s lips: How do they make a decent dress or a jacket, with sleeves, or a pair of functioning shoes for $8.98?
The answer is complicated, but for those who can remember what it was like to wile away an evening browsing the exhilaratingly chaotic downtown Tower store, its coming transformation into a temple of cheap denim short-shorts, cargo pants and walls of novelty T-shirts makes some sort of sense in the arc of cultural evolution.
Fashion, as it has become more accessible to a generation that is obsessed with the mass emulation of celebrity style, has surpassed music (and the increasingly archaic concept of the record store) as the retail touchstone of youth. And cheap fashion has become infinitely more respectable, even cool, given the current economic climate.
“It seems like there is some justice in that, doesn’t it?” said Ms. Parker, who last week attended a movie premiere wearing a bitty blue sundress with a print of hothouse foliage, $8.98, from Bitten, her year-old Steve & Barry’s collection. “For a lot of people — young women, middle-age women, regular women — there is this idea about wanting fashion in an affordable way. They are living in a less rarefied world.”
The significance of planning a store on Broadway — by the time it opens this fall, it will be around the 300th Steve & Barry’s in the country and the largest in New York — is not lost on Steve Shore and Barry Prevor, childhood friends from Long Island who founded the company in 1985.
During an interview last month in their headquarters in Port Washington, N.Y., Mr. Shore, from Syosset, and Mr. Prevor, from Merrick, both 44, said the location was a logical choice, given its proximity to New York University and their target demographic. It is also intended to send a message to the fashion industry, which has largely underestimated the chain despite sales last year, according to the business-research firm Hoover’s Inc., of $1.1 billion.
“There’s been a revolution, a full-blown revolution,” Mr. Shore said, sounding, at times, just a bit like Crazy Eddie. “We just haven’t told anyone yet. If the Gap or Abercrombie & Fitch or J. Crew said that everything in the store is going to be $8.98 or less, it would be front-page news. But while no one was noticing, we opened stores across the country that have identical clothes for much lower prices.”
The question, again, is how.
They opened the first Steve & Barry’s store at the University of Pennsylvania in 1985 with the idea of selling licensed collegiate designs at much lower prices than the campus bookstores. In the 1990s, after expanding with locations near Big Ten campuses, they introduced a larger, mall-based format selling casual sportswear (mostly T-shirts bearing sophomoric logos, targeted toward young men — three inebriated frogs, for example, are “Toadily Wasted”).
In 2006, they began offering more fashionable designs in partnerships with Mr. Marbury, Ms. Parker and other celebrities, thereby changing the look and concept of the stores, but not the underlying business model that relied on an obsessive attention to costs.
Mr. Shore and Mr. Prevor, dressed in chinos and rumpled shirts, frequently described the company as “the Google of fashion” and rattled off several ways they had devised to make a high-quality product at the low prices. The clothes appear to be well made — several of the Bitten dresses, made in India, were lined, and the strapless dress Ms. Parker wore is constructed with an internal elastic band to hold it up. And the basketball shoes appear sturdy, although they are made with fake leather (well, so are Stella McCartney’s).
Steve & Barry’s saves big, for example, by opening stores in underperforming malls, where the owners are more likely to negotiate rents and offer other incentives; by building its own bare-bones store displays; by maintaining only a small public relations office in Manhattan; and by manufacturing in countries like China, India, Madagascar and more than 20 others, including the United States.
Though the prices will raise concerns that the clothes are made in sweatshop factories that underpay or otherwise exploit workers, Mr. Shore and Mr. Prevor said absolutely not.
Howard Schacter, the company’s chief partnership officer, said Steve & Barry’s monitors its subcontractors carefully and demands ethical business practices. The key to its low prices, he said, is a razor-slim profit margin.
Then, too, Steve & Barry’s doesn’t advertise, but rather relies on word of mouth.
Steve & Barry’s also saves small — for example, by using discount hotels, like Motel 6 and Econo Lodge, for travel, assigning one printer to 50 employees and myriad other ways.
On a tour of their offices, where designers’ cubicles are retrofitted into dreary, sometimes windowless nooks, Mr. Shore and Mr. Prevor pointed out aging furniture that Mr. Prevor found in his parents’ basement and a filing cabinet that bore the logo of a fruit-and-vegetable distributor. (There was a large stack of papers spilling onto the floor next to it.)
It is not a country club, but the offices are lively and full of 20-somethings, many of them recent college graduates — the director of stores was a music major at Harvard — attracted at being able to take on significant responsibilities fairly early in their careers, and also by the likelihood that Steve & Barry’s will eventually go public. TA Associates, a private-equity firm that backs Eastern Mountain Sports and Jenny Craig, bought a minority stake in 2006.
“To be great, you have to have these ridiculous, insane prices, and not sacrifice quality,” Mr. Shore said. “The question we constantly ask ourselves is how to hit the price point that even Wal-Mart is not hitting.”
The most basic dresses at J. Crew start at $58. At American Apparel, they start at $26; at Old Navy, $19.50; and at Forever 21, some styles cost $15.80. The least expensive dress on the Wal-Mart Web site is $14.92.
Prices at Steve & Barry’s are actually dropping — the $8.98 threshold was introduced as a holiday promotion last year, but remains with no set expiration, Mr. Prevor said. (At the newest store in Waipahu, Hawaii, which opened last Friday, the highest price is $9.98, reflecting increased shipping costs.)
Meanwhile, the company’s sales at locations open at least a year, a crucial indicator of retail health, have increased more than 20 percent each month since January, he said.
Outside the Manhattan Mall store this week, several customers said they appreciated the quality and style of the clothes, but over and over they said, “The prices are unbelievable.”
“I have no idea how they do it,” said Katherynne Ramirez, 24, from the Bronx, who estimated that 35 percent of her closet came from Steve & Barry’s. “The material seems pretty good for the price, so I bought a lot of summer tops. They looked nice.”
None of this sufficiently explains how Steve & Barry’s managed to lure a celebrity like Ms. Parker, who, in a now decade-long performance as Carrie Bradshaw on “Sex and the City,” helped establish the credibility of binge fashion consumption as a national pastime and made Manolo Blahnik a household name. As a celebrity designer, she could have had her pick of deals, but as a businesswoman, she sensed the possibilities in mass and a change in the public perception toward low-price clothes.
“I had never heard of Steve & Barry’s, and I didn’t know anyone who had ever heard of them,” Ms. Parker said. “I was dubious. But I loved their manifesto and the idea of the marketization of fashion.”
A year into their collaboration, Ms. Parker has been joined at Steve & Barry’s by Ms. Bynes, whose more teenage-oriented label is called Dear, and Venus Williams, whose performance collection is called Eleven.
For men, there are additional basketball styles named after Ben Wallace, golf clothes from Bubba Watson and a new surf-wear collection from Laird Hamilton. The success of Mr. Marbury’s Starbury shoes, the first celebrity style introduced in the store in 2006, then at $14.98, has been heralded as a backlash against $100-plus styles like the Nike Air Jordan. Steve & Barry’s, according to estimates, has sold more than 10 million pairs.

“What has changed,” Ms. Parker said, “is that now people have bragging rights about what they paid. I admired a woman’s pair of pants at a party recently and she said, ‘Fourteen dollars! H & M!’ It really is, among the people I know, part of what they do now.”

Mr. Shore and Mr. Prevor again likened the change to a revolution.

“When you look at clothing now,” Mr. Prevor said, “price is not the arbiter of what is good. It’s the clothes themselves.”





arbiter elegantiarum
((ラテン語))趣味の判定者.
: a person who prescribes, rules on, or is a recognized authority on matters of social behavior and taste

arbiter[ar・bi・ter]

  • レベル:社会人必須
  • 発音記号[ɑ'ːrbətər]
[名]
1 仲裁[調停]者;判定[審判]者
an arbiter of labor disputes
労働争議調停者.
2 (…の)裁決者, 決定者((of ...))
the final arbiter
最終的決定を下す人.
[ラテン語arbītrāre(ad-へ+bitere行く, 探す). 原義は「調停のため, 何をなしうるかを見に行く人」]

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