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2013年11月28日 星期四

消基會:農糧署「花一個月思考」「就算沒有包庇,也有嚴重行政疏失!」

消基會:農糧署「花一個月思考」 行政疏失

陸和碾米工廠總經理陳德興昨天親自向消費者道歉,強調兩款下架產品都是一時的人為疏忽。 (記者劉曉欣攝)
「台南11號」的白米(圖左)跟台稉9號的白米相比,長度較短,弧度較圓。 (記者劉曉欣攝)
〔記 者魏怡嘉、謝文華、劉曉欣/綜合報導〕農糧署八月抽檢、十月出爐,卻到十一月才公佈市售包裝米第三季抽檢結果,農糧署長李蒼郎解釋主要卡在九月十八日修正 實施「違反糧食管理法案件處分裁量作業要點」,抽查樣本適用新法還是舊法需要釐清。消基會董事長張智剛質疑,只要請示法規會就可解決的事,農糧署官員卻花 一個月去思考,「就算沒有包庇,也有嚴重行政疏失!」
李蒼郎說,九月新的「違反糧食管理法案件處分裁量作業要點」,對於違規情節重大者,取 消限期改善,改以直接開罰。這批米抽樣在新要點實施之前,檢驗結果卻在新法實施後才公佈,農糧署依新要點直接開罰,有部分業者不服,提出申覆,農糧署處理 完業者的申覆之後,再一起公佈,也因而遲了時間。
張智剛批評說,不管以新法或舊法開罰,業者不服都可申覆,農糧署不能拿這理由做為延遲公佈的藉口!此外,農糧署就算在十月間,已對業者開出違規單、也要求下架,但難保業者在沒下架前,消費者已購買到違規商品,業者依規定還是要賠償消費者。
至 於在八月已被踢爆混充的泉順米商,此次又有山水米被列入違規混充名單,明顯是累犯,卻還是只罰四萬。張智剛怒斥,明明可以食品衛生管理法「摻偽假冒」法 條,對業者重罰到最高一千五百萬且課以刑責,甚至撤銷糧商登記證,農糧署卻選擇輕罰、縱放。農糧署表示,此次是泉順山水米第三次違規,依法只能罰四萬,若 再被查獲違規一次,就會撤銷其糧商登記證。

加利福尼亞證明了奧巴馬醫改的成功 California, Here We Come?

Op-Ed Columnist

California, Here We Come?

It goes without saying that the rollout of Obamacare was an epic disaster. But what kind of disaster was it? Was it a failure of management, messing up the initial implementation of a fundamentally sound policy? Or was it a demonstration that the Affordable Care Act is inherently unworkable?
We know what each side of the partisan divide wants you to believe. The Obama administration is telling the public that everything will eventually be fixed, and urging Congressional Democrats to keep their nerve. Republicans, on the other hand, are declaring the program an irredeemable failure, which must be scrapped and replaced with ... well, they don’t really want to replace it with anything.
At a time like this, you really want a controlled experiment. What would happen if we unveiled a program that looked like Obamacare, in a place that looked like America, but with competent project management that produced a working website?
Well, your wish is granted. Ladies and gentlemen, I give you California.
Now, California isn’t the only place where Obamacare is looking pretty good. A number of states that are running their own online health exchanges instead of relying on HealthCare.gov are doing well. Kentucky’s Kynect is a huge success; so is Access Health CT in Connecticut. New York is doing O.K. And we shouldn’t forget that Massachusetts has had an Obamacare-like program since 2006, put into effect by a guy named Mitt Romney.
California is, however, an especially useful test case. First of all, it’s huge: if a system can work for 38 million people, it can work for America as a whole. Also, it’s hard to argue that California has had any special advantages other than that of having a government that actually wants to help the uninsured. When Massachusetts put Romneycare into effect, it already had a relatively low number of uninsured residents. California, however, came into health reform with 22 percent of its nonelderly population uninsured, compared with a national average of 18 percent.
Finally, the California authorities have been especially forthcoming with data tracking the progress of enrollment. And the numbers are increasingly encouraging.
For one thing, enrollment is surging. At this point, more than 10,000 applications are being completed per day, putting the state well on track to meet its overall targets for 2014 coverage. Just imagine, by the way, how different press coverage would be right now if Obama officials had produced a comparable success, and around 100,000 people a day were signing up nationwide.
Equally important is the information on who is enrolling. To work as planned, health reform has to produce a balanced risk pool — that is, it must sign up young, healthy Americans as well as their older, less healthy compatriots. And so far, so good: In October, 22.5 percent of California enrollees were between the ages of 18 and 34, slightly above that group’s share of the population.
What we have in California, then, is a proof of concept. Yes, Obamacare is workable — in fact, done right, it works just fine.
The bad news, of course, is that most Americans aren’t lucky enough to live in states in which Obamacare has, in fact, been done right. They’re stuck either with HealthCare.gov or with one of the state exchanges, like Oregon’s, that have similar or worse problems. Will they ever get to experience successful health reform?
The answer is, probably yes. There won’t be a moment when the clouds suddenly lift, but the exchanges are gradually getting better — a point inadvertently illustrated a few days ago by John Boehner, the speaker of the House. Mr. Boehner staged a publicity stunt in which tried to sign up in the DC Health Exchange, then triumphantly posted an entry on his blog declaring that he had been unsuccessful. At the bottom of his post, however, is a postscript admitting that the health exchange had called back “a few hours later,” and that he is now enrolled.
And maybe the transaction would have proceeded faster if Mr. Boehner’s office hadn’t, according to the D.C. exchange, put its agent — who was calling to help finish the enrollment — on hold for 35 minutes, listening to “lots of patriotic hold music.”
There will also probably be growing use of workarounds — for example, encouraging people to go directly to insurers. This will temporarily defeat one of the purposes of the exchanges, which was to make price comparisons easy, but it will be good enough as a short-term patch. And one shouldn’t forget that the insurance industry has a big financial stake in the success of Obamacare, and will soon be pitching in with big efforts to sign people up.
Again, Obamacare’s rollout was a disaster. But in California we can see what health reform will look like, beyond the glitches. And it’s going to work.

專欄作家

加利福尼亞證明了奧巴馬醫改的成功

不用說,奧巴馬醫改的推出是一個巨大的災難。但它是一種怎樣的災難呢?是因為管理的失敗,搞砸了一項根本上頗為健全的政策的初步實施?還是說它已經證明《合理醫療費用法案》(Affordable Care Act)根本不具有可行性?
我們都知道存在分歧的兩黨分別希望你會持何種觀點。奧巴馬政府告訴公眾,一切問題最後都會得到解決,他們還呼籲國會民主黨人保持冷靜。而共和黨人則宣稱,這個項目簡直就是無可救藥地失敗,它必須被取消或者用其他東西來代替……哎,其實他們根本不願意用任何東西來代替它。
在這樣的時刻,你會很想進行一次受控實驗。如果我們在一個看似美國的地方,推出一個看似奧巴馬醫改的項目,但是項目管理人員有能力,推出了一個運行正常的網站,情況又將如何?

好吧,你的心愿得到了滿足。女士們、先生們,我們來看看加利福尼亞。

奧巴馬醫改並不只是在加利福尼亞運行良好。許多運行自己在線醫保交易所,而不是依賴於政府醫改網站HealthCare.gov的州都表現良好。肯塔基州的網站Kynect就取得了巨大成功;康涅狄格州的 Access Health CT也是一樣。紐約的情況也還不錯。而且我們也不應該忘記,從2006年開始,馬薩諸塞州就有了一個類似奧巴馬醫改的項目,該項目的實施者叫做米特·羅姆 尼(Mitt Romney)。

不過,加利福尼亞是一個非常有用的案例。首先,它規模巨 大:如果一個系統能為3800萬人服務,它就能為所有美國人服務。此外,加利福尼亞除了有一個真心想幫助無保險人員的政府以外,很難說它有任何其他的特殊 優勢。當馬薩諸塞州開始實施羅姆尼醫改的時候,它的無保險居民人數已經相對較少了。然而,當加州開始進行醫療改革時,它22%的非老齡人口都未參保,而全 國平均水平為18%。

最後,加州官方對追蹤登記進程的數據尤為坦誠。而且相關數據越來越鼓舞人心。

首先,登記量在急速增加。此時此刻,每天都有1萬多名申請者完成登記,按照這種勢頭,加州可以順利完成2014年的總體覆蓋目標。還有,請試想一下,如果奧巴馬政府的官員取得了與之相當的成功,全國每天大約有10萬人完成登記,媒體現在的報道將會多麼不同。

同樣重要的是登記者的信息。按照計劃,醫療改革必須生成一 個平衡的風險池——也就是說,除了較年長的、健康狀況較差的美國人以外,年輕的健康美國人也需要登記。目前為止,一切順利:10月,22.5%的加州登記 者的年齡都在18歲到34歲之間,略微超過這群人在總人口中所佔的比例。

所以,加州的情況是一個概念驗證。對,奧巴馬醫改具有可行性——實際上,如果能得到正確實施,它將會取得很好的效果。

當然,壞消息是,大多數美國人都沒能足夠幸運地住在奧巴馬醫改得到正確實施的州。他們要麼被聯邦政府醫改網站所困,要麼就遇到了有着相似或更嚴重問題的州醫保交易網站,比如俄勒岡的網站。他們究竟能否體驗到成功的醫療改革?

答案是,或許能。烏雲絕不會瞬間消散,但交易網站卻在逐漸 改善——幾天前,眾議院議長約翰·博納(John Boehner)無意中說明了這一點。博納在一次作秀中嘗試在哥倫比亞特區醫保交易(DC Health Exchange)網上進行登記,然後神氣地在博客上發訊息稱,他沒有登記成功。然而,他在文章底部發了一條附言,承認醫保交易網站在「幾小時後」打電話 給他,目前他已成功登記。

而且哥倫比亞特區的交易網站稱,博納的辦公室讓打電話過來幫他完成登記的工作人員拿着電話、聽着「大量愛國的等待音樂」等了35分鐘;如果博納的辦公室沒有這樣做的話,這次交易就會更快完成。

變通方案的使用或許會越來越多,例如,鼓勵人們直接去找承保人。這樣做將暫時使交易網站失去其中一項功能——使價格比較變簡單,但它將是一個很好的短期應對措施。人們也不應該忘記,奧巴馬醫改的成敗於保險行業有巨大的經濟利益,而且很快就會大力爭取讓人們登記。

再說一遍,奧巴馬醫改的推出是個災難。但是,拋開那些小問題不論,我們在加州看到了醫療改革的前景。它會成功的。
翻譯:陳柳

2013年11月17日 星期日

政院發言人室 年薪6千萬

誇張 政院發言人室 年薪6千萬

編制73人 組織竟沒瘦身

新聞局裁併後,行政院發言人室編制員額高達七十三人,政院發言人鄭麗文指已遇缺不補。資料照片
【何 哲欣、徐珮君╱台北報導】行政院裁撤新聞局後,改設發言人當政府化妝師,但根據政院明年預算,發言人室編制員額高達七十三人,九職等以上高階文官四十三 人,一年人事費六千多萬元,平均每人月薪逾六萬元。藍綠立委昨直呼這麼龐大的發言人室太誇張,組改根本沒落實。政院發言人鄭麗文解釋,現已遇缺不補。

與公關處疊床架屋

新 聞局去年五月裁併,業務移撥外交部、文化部,裁撤前職員三百七十六人,人事費五億多元。組織改造後,政院設發言人,再自訂內規「行政院處務規程」,設發言 人辦公室,負責國內外新聞聯繫、發布、輿情蒐集,但政院仍設有公共關係處,負責與立法院、監察院聯繫、正副院長行程等。
藍委羅淑蕾說,「一個發言人,幾個幕僚就夠,用到七十幾個,嚇死人」,且編制有一堆高級文官,真有這麼多事嗎?不需要的人和機關就應整併。
曾任行政院政務委員兼發言人的綠委陳其邁說,發言人業務單純,對內蒐集輿情,對外說明政策,且政院還設有秘書處,負責對外聯繫,「公關處與發言人室根本疊床架屋,鄭麗文有七十幾個幕僚,太龐大了!十個就夠用。」

綠委:看不到功能

曾任新聞局長的綠委姚文智說,行政院發言人有設立必要,但從菲律賓濫殺我漁民的廣大興案到最近食安問題,政院發言人都推給部會,看不到功能,人力應再裁併。

政院發言人辦公室編制

「遇缺不補沒擴編」

鄭麗文解釋,發言人辦公室業務主要是新聞媒體聯繫,公關處負責其他公共關係業務,職掌不同,並未疊床架屋。鄭也說,新聞局裁併後,留在發言人辦公室約八十人,缺額都不再補人,目前員額六十六人,未因成立發言人辦公室而擴編。

2013年11月16日 星期六

《噩夢工場 蘋果的代工廠勞工正經歷可怕噩夢》




《噩夢工場 蘋果的代工廠勞工正經歷可怕噩夢》


在舊金山劇場的聚光燈下,蘋果的市場營銷主管席勒正在舞台上展示亮光閃閃的iPhone 5:「當你用iPhone 5拍照時,這個世界就會變為一個更美麗的地方。」而舞台之下,遠比這更不尋常的事情正在發生,一場瘋狂的招工行動正在尼泊爾展開。

蘋果最大供應商之一是偉創力正是席勒所大肆誇耀的攝影鏡頭生產地。偉創力馬來西亞生產線通常通過非正式的、缺乏監管、且涉及上千位勞工代理中介的跨洲運作網絡來招募勞工。這些勞工代理中介分散在各處,通常會雇傭下一級代理中介深入田間地頭和貧困城市去招募勞工,足跡遍佈印尼、柬埔寨、緬甸、越南、甚至尼泊爾的喜馬拉雅山區。

Dhong的家鄉是位於加德滿都谷邊緣的一處村莊,一場暴雨沖毀了他的農舍後,Dhong成為了全球電子設備企業在亞洲各地招募的那一類勞工中的一員。向層層中介繳納中介費之後,還沒開始工作,Dhong就已經背上了1000美元的債務。最終,他達成航班來到吉隆坡,開始了生產攝影鏡頭的工作。

數月後,生產線不明原因被關閉。Dhong和其他那些尼泊爾工人失去了工作。他們得不到一點消息,簽證到期,Dhong和他的工友都淪為非法勞工。每個人似乎都沒有食物、也沒有錢。「我們很害怕,」27歲的卡夫(Hikmat Prasad Kafle)說,「我們當時想,如果我們要死在這裡,我們將死在一起。」

Dhong是最後一批被送回吉隆坡的。回到尼泊爾,許多工人仍欠著他們為支付獵頭和中介費而借來的錢。有些人即便設法擺脫了債務,生活也朝不保夕。而大家都還依稀記得蘋果CEO庫克說過的話。他說,蘋果公司從未如此強大過,這是「因為我們全球員工的努力和創造力。」他們的工作,「具有真正的意義,因為革命性的產品會給人們的生活帶來真正的變化。」


詳細內容: 《彭博商業周刊/中文版》特寫
2013.11.13 – 2013.11.19| 第21期

2013年11月4日 星期一

美國車廠生意旺/ 頂新福懋 混大統油6年/馬的屁股是麻煩之源(南方朔)

【南方朔專欄】馬的屁股是麻煩之源

南方朔

馬 的民調只剩九趴,他走到哪,人們的破鞋子就丟到哪,於是上個星期四府內人士遂宣傳說,馬將減少公開行程,專心國政。但這個話講了才過兩天,他就再度大陣仗 的到新竹市知名的花生醬店去作採購秀。馬的屁股和別人不一樣,你要叫他星期六好好的坐下來專心國政,那簡直是對他的最大折磨。四界趴趴走,早已成了他的第 二天性。他怎麼可能坐下來專心國政?

馬的屁股真的和別人不一樣。他從當台北市長起,就辦公室坐不下去,每天趴趴走的時間多過批公文和思考問題的時間;當了總統後,這種趴趴走、趕行程的習性當然變本加厲。據我所知,馬的心態是:

-當個統治者,只有趴趴走才可以享受到權力的癮頭,他白天趴趴走,有人開道,他的座車可以風馳電掣,到了每個定點後,有人列隊歡迎,有隨扈前呼後擁,這是權力最大的樂趣,不享受白不享受。

─馬曾經告訴他的親信,到處趴趴走,到處去握手,每握一次手,就可能多出一或多張選票,而在辦公室專心國政也握不到新的手,完全沒有選票上的效果,這才是他寧願趴趴走、趕行程的主因。

我 們不能否認,馬的這種趕行程、趴趴走、到處去握手騙選票的作風,的確替他騙到了許多選票。但他固然很會算,老天也會算。當一個統治者每天只是在趕行程、趕 場作秀、到處握手,而不肯坐下來思考國政,整個國事當然越搞越糟,當國家爛到一定的程度,人民就會霍然覺醒,發現到統治者只會趴趴走、作秀、握手的欺騙 性:一旦人們覺醒,他這種趴趴走的騙人作風,人們就愈看愈煩,破鞋子也愈丟愈多。

由台灣的例子,我就想到美國政治學教授 柯亨(Jeffrey E.Cohen)2008年由普林斯頓大學出版部所出的那本的” 廿四小時新聞時代的總統文宣"。柯亨教授指出,自1960到80年代,是美國電視宣傳的黃金時代,總統很容易透過新聞宣傳為自己造勢,但從新媒體開始發達 起,特別是網路的興起,新聞上的競爭加大,整個媒體界已愈來愈不接受總統的宣傳,反而更喜歡從負面去看總統的作秀。這是時代改變後的新聞標準改變,只有有 能力能夠做出政績的總統,才能禁得起考驗,只會趴趴走搞宣傳的總統,人們已看破他的手腳。文宣治國的時代已告結束,馬的趴趴走搞宣傳,到處握手騙選票這種 招數已愈來愈沒有用,這其實也是一種時代變化的必然。

因此,馬總統現在被人罵成一團,他趴趴走到哪裡,人們的破鞋子就丟到哪裡,這已在提醒他,真該好好管一下他的屁股。他真該停止趴趴走作秀的風格,把屁股安定下來,好好去關心台灣的各種問題。他的屁股坐不下來,乃是他的麻煩之源。 混很久,騙很大… 頂新福懋 混大統油6年

屏東縣衛生局上月27日前往頂新屏東廠,封存了由大統供應的油品
大統混油 六年前就賣頂新福懋
〔記者顏宏駿、吳為恭、楊雅民、羅欣貞、張傳佳/綜合報導〕彰化檢方會同彰化縣衛生局連日清查大統長基的出貨資料,竟然發現大統分別在二○○七年二月及六月就開始賣紅桶混油給頂新及福懋公司,如今大統出包,頂新與福懋也把自己的商譽賠掉。
大統出貨 都標百分百純橄欖油
大 統六年多來共賣給頂新混油的數量有一千二百零二桶,重量達二十四萬零四百公斤,每桶價格約在一萬九千六百元至二萬二千六百元之間,頂新共花了二千六百一十 四萬元;至於,賣給福懋的紅桶混油數量到底有多少?由於大統內部作帳混亂,且歷年交易量龐大,檢方和衛生單位目前還在清查中。彰化檢方從查扣的大統電腦資 料中發現,多年來大統賣給頂新的混合橄欖油,竟都標示「西班牙進口、百分之百的純橄欖油」。
頂新味全涉及隱匿 各開罰300萬
截至昨日為止,台中市衛生局已重罰福懋一千五百萬元。屏東縣衛生局因頂新使用了大統油,卻沒有在第一時間交代清單,開罰三百萬元。台北市衛生局針對味全公司隱匿其油品摻大統油一事罰三百萬元,並將二十一件涉及摻偽產品移送檢調偵辦。
頂新若屬惡意添加 最高罰3.15億
屏 縣衛生局說明,頂新使用大統油製造的二十一項味全調合油,日後如果被驗出銅葉綠素及棉籽油,頂新若知情還使用,屬惡意添加,每項將會被罰一千五百萬,以二 十一項計算,高達三億一千五百萬元;如果不知情,則是會被依相關規定「不得添加」,每項罰三百萬元,總計六千三百萬元。
大統裝油分紅、藍桶 暗藏玄機
檢方還查出,當初大統為了易於辨識大桶裝的油是純油還是混油,以紅、藍鐵桶分別盛裝,紅桶是混油、藍桶是純油,賣給頂新、福懋的油品就是紅桶混油。彰化檢方強調,大統賣給頂新、福懋的大桶油所得,未來在地院審理時檢方會向院方增補資料,並擴大追訴高振利的不法所得。
檢 方強調,十月十六日第一次進大統線西廠搜索時,就在廠內發現兩種不同顏色的油桶,但高振利向檢方保證「兩種都是純的」,如今被拆穿了。彰化縣地檢署表示, 紅色桶內的橄欖油只有四十二%,其餘五十八%則是混充入葵花油、芥花油、沙拉油、棕櫚油、棉籽油,另外再加入銅葉綠素調色。
混油多年 頂新福懋仍稱不知情
被查出使用大統混油多年,兩業者仍宣稱不知情;福懋油發言人陳世章表示,油品入庫前公司都會進行脂肪酸檢驗,確定為橄欖油才入庫,根本不知大統會違法添加銅葉綠素,所以無從檢驗。頂新集團發言人陳文敏也說,每一批原料入庫前都經檢驗合格,確定原物料沒問題才會生產分裝。



How things have changed over the past half decade. It was almost precisely five years ago that the then chief executives from Detroit's Big Three carmakers flew to Washington, hats in hand, begging for bail-outs. It is a very different scenario today, with the market for new cars in America zipping along nicely to the point where Detroit's carmakers are struggling with capacity constraints http://econ.st/1avYsp0

2013年11月1日 星期五

蘋果為消費者設下的陷阱 Cracking the Apple Trap


Cracking the Apple Trap

October 31, 2013

 

At first, I thought it was my imagination. Around the time the iPhone 5S and 5C were released, in September, I noticed that my sad old iPhone 4 was becoming a lot more sluggish. The battery was starting to run down much faster, too. But the same thing seemed to be happening to a lot of people who, like me, swear by their Apple products. When I called tech analysts, they said that the new operating system (iOS 7) being pushed out to existing users was making older models unbearably slow. Apple phone batteries, which have a finite number of charges in them to begin with, were drained by the new software. So I could pay Apple $79 to replace the battery, or perhaps spend 20 bucks more for an iPhone 5C. It seemed like Apple was sending me a not-so-subtle message to upgrade.
Of course, there are more benign explanations. The new software and recent app updates offer fancy new features that existing users want; maybe the battery is sealed with tiny five-point screws for aesthetic considerations. Perhaps, but this isn’t the first time that tech analysts and random crazies on the Internet have noted that breakdowns in older Apple products can often coincide with when upgrades come onto the market. Many have taken this as evidence of “planned obsolescence,” a term that dates to the Great Depression, when a real estate broker suggested that the government should stimulate the economy by placing artificial expiration dates on consumer products so people would buy more.
To conspiracy-theory-hungry observers (and some of the rest of us), it might make sense that Apple would employ this business strategy. The tech giant, after all, has reached near-saturation levels in the U.S. smartphone market. If iPhones work forever, people who already own the devices­ won’t buy new ones. Furthermore, selling products with finite life spans can be good for consumers, depending on their tastes and how informed they are. The fashion industry, whose entire mission is to essentially render products obsolete long before they cease to be functional, does this regularly. I buy clothes from H&M and other low-cost, trend-driven stores knowing full well that the pieces might fall apart after a year’s worth of washes. And if the clothes won’t be fashionable next year anyway, who cares? Improving the durability — and thereby cost — of the clothes would probably just drive away price-sensitive shoppers like me. Apple has similar considerations. Would the additional longevity of the battery be valuable enough to its core consumers to justify the inevitable higher price?
Economists have theories about market conditions that encourage planned obsolescence. A company has strong incentives to degrade product durability when it has a lot of market power and when consumers don’t have good substitute products to choose from. (That’s what happened with the international light-bulb cartel of the early 20th century, which penalized its members for manufacturing bulbs that lasted more than 1,000 hours.) When Apple started making the iPhone in 2007, its product was so innovative that it could have deliberately degraded durability without fear. But in the last couple years, the company has faced stiffer competition from Samsung and HTC, among others, which should deincentivize planned obsolescence. “Buyers are smart, and if they start figuring out that one of the costs of buying Apple’s products is that they’re constantly nickel-and-diming you, they’ll switch,” said Austan Goolsbee, an economics professor at the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business.
Well, maybe. A company could still be encouraged to engage in planned obsolescence if consumers perceive large “switching costs” associated with going to a new brand. There are plenty of economics textbooks to choose from, for instance, and yet publishers still artificially make their old editions unusable by changing pagination or scrambling homework questions because they know teachers don’t want to deal with learning a whole new book.
Similarly, iPhone users have probably purchased complementary products, like apps, that won’t transfer to Android phones. They also probably have a network of iPhone-using friends with whom they can chat free using Apple’s Messages app (instead of paying for text messages). These switching costs increase Apple’s incentives to force its existing customers to upgrade by making older models gradually become more dysfunctional.
There is, however, a simple way to effectively render an old product obsolete without fleecing your existing customers. Instead of degrading the old model, companies can offer innovations in the new model that make upgrading irresistible. Apple succeeded at doing this for a while, offering new iPhones that included major improvements. In the past, consumers were so excited about the cool new features, like Siri, the voice-activated interface, that they may not have minded (or even noticed) if their old phones started to deteriorate; they planned on upgrading anyway. This time around, that’s less true. The iPhone 5S and 5C offer fewer quantum improvements. Consumers are more likely to want their old phones to continue working at peak condition in perpetuity, and to feel cheated when they don’t.
When major innovations remain out of reach, and degrading durability threatens to tick off loyal customers, companies like Apple can still take a cue from the fashion industry. If you can brainwash consumers into developing new tastes that make the old stuff look uncool for aesthetic rather than functional reasons, you still have a shot at harvesting more sales from your existing customer base. But it seems Apple may have already figured this out too. Just check out the wait times for the iPhone 5S in that shiny new gold color.

蘋果為消費者設下的美麗陷阱

科技2013年10月31日
Illustration by Kelsey Dake
一開始,我還以為這只是我在瞎猜。9月份,iPhone 5S和5C面世前後,我發現我那可憐的老iPhone 4變得遲鈍了許多。電池用的也越來越快。但很多人也遭遇了同樣的情況,他們和我一樣,都是果粉。後來我給科技業分析師打電話,他們說,硬推給現有用戶的新 操作系統(iOS7)讓人們手裡的較老款產品變得異常遲緩。蘋果手機電池本來就有固定的充電次數壽命,在使用新操作系統後,電量更是消耗得非常快。這樣一 來,我要麼付給蘋果79美元來更換電池,要麼再多花20美元去購買一個iPhone 5C。看起來,蘋果發出了一個挺直白的信號,就是讓我趕快升級換代。
當然,你也可以給出比較善意的解釋。新操作系統和最近的軟件升級, 能夠給予老用戶一直想要的酷炫新功能;而蘋果之所以把電池用五點螺絲(five-point screws)封裝起來,完全是出於對美觀的考慮。也許吧,但是這也不是第一次;之前,科技分析師和網上的某些狂人也曾提出,每當新升級問世,老款蘋果產 品碰巧就會崩潰。很多人以此為據,認為這是「按計劃報廢」(planned obsolescence)。這個詞起源於大蕭條時代,那個時候,一個地產經紀人給政府提建議,認為可以給消費品人為設定一個有效期,這樣人們就會消費得 更多,從而提振經濟。
對於那些總想要尋找陰謀論的觀察員來說(還有我們當中一些別的人也 是),蘋果採用這樣的商業策略,其實是能夠說得通的。不管怎麼說,作為科技界巨頭,蘋果在美國智能手機市場上的佔有率已經達到近乎飽和的程度。如果 iPhone永遠不壞,那些已經持有的用戶就不會繼續購買新設備了。此外,考慮到消費者的品味和信息靈通程度,出售有着固定使用壽命的產品對於消費者也是 有好處的。時尚產業經常在其產品尚有使用價值的時候,就讓它們變得過時,這就是時尚產業的全部使命。我從H&M和其他廉價時尚品牌那兒買衣服時, 非常清楚,在一年之後,這些衣服就會因為漂洗而散架。但是又有誰會在意呢?畢竟這件衣服明年不會再流行了。如果提高衣服的使用壽命(也就意味着提高衣服的 成本),那麼很有可能會趕走那些像我一樣,對價格敏感的消費者。蘋果也有類似的考慮。如果提高電池的使用壽命,那麼對於蘋果的核心消費者來說,額外增加的 成本是否能夠帶來足夠的價值?
經濟學家提出了各種理論,指出在有些市場條件下,故意讓老產品落伍 是被鼓勵的。當一家公司在市場上力量極大,而消費者又沒有好的替代品可供選擇時,該公司就會有強烈的意願降低產品的使用壽命。(這就是為什麼在20世紀 初,國際電燈企業聯盟有規定,如果該組織成員生產的燈泡,使用壽命超過1000個小時,聯盟就會對該成員進行處罰。)2007年,蘋果開始推出 iPhone,這一產品在當時極具創新性,因此蘋果可以故意降低產品的使用壽命,而沒有任何擔憂。但在最近一兩年,蘋果遭遇了來自三星和HTC等競爭者的 挑戰,且競爭日益激烈。這本來是應該抑制「按計劃報廢」這種策略的。奧斯坦·古爾斯比(Austan Goolsbee)是芝加哥大學布斯商學院(University of Chicago』s Booth School of Business)的經濟學教授,他指出,「消費者是很聰明的。如果他們發現,購買蘋果產品之後,總會遭到蘋果的算計,他們就會換別的產品。」
好吧,有可能是這樣的。不過,如果消費者們認為,去換另一個牌子的 產品會有很大的「轉換成本」,那麼原來的公司還是有「按計劃報廢」的衝動。比方說,市場上可供選擇的經濟學教科書非常多,但出版商知道,老師們不願意花時 間為新書備課。因而出版商還是會採用各種詭計,比方說更改書的頁碼或者打亂問題的順序,人為地讓老版教材變得難以使用。
類似的,iPhone用戶很有可能購買了iPhone的配套產品, 例如應用程序,這些是沒有辦法移到Android手機上的。用戶身邊的朋友圈可能都在用iPhone,因此使用蘋果的短訊息應用,就能夠免費聊天(而不用 花錢發短訊了)。因為這些轉換成本的存在,蘋果會有動力去強制老用戶升級;他們只要讓老款產品慢慢無法正常工作就行了。
但是,還有一個簡單的辦法,能夠在不壓榨老用戶的同時,讓老款產品 落伍。公司完全不必讓老款產品越來越不好使,他們可以在新產品中加入創新功能;面對此類升級的誘惑,消費者將無法抵抗。過去一段時間,蘋果成功地做到了這 一點,他們推出的新款手機總有重大改善。過去,消費者總是對這些新功能非常興奮(比方說Siri,那款聲控交互界面)。這樣一來,消費者不會介意(甚至不 會發現)他們的老款手機是否不好用了,反正他們早就計劃好要升級了。而這一次似乎不是這麼回事兒了。iPhone 5S和5C提供的重量級改進要少得多。消費者更可能希望,他們的老款手機能夠以最佳狀態一直工作下去,如果他們發現不是這樣,他們就會有種被欺詐的感覺。
如果沒有重大創新,而且降低使用壽命會讓忠誠的顧客灰心,蘋果這樣 的公司還是可以借鑒時尚產業。如果你能對消費者進行洗腦,讓他們改變品味,僅僅從審美角度認為老產品不再炫酷,而不考慮其是否能夠正常工作,那麼你還有機 會從現有顧客身上獲得更多的銷售機會。不過,蘋果似乎已經搞懂這一點了。你不妨算算,光燦燦的新「土豪金」色iPhone 5S的購買等待時間有多長。
凱瑟琳·拉姆佩爾(Catherine Rampell)是《紐約時報》經濟記者。亞當·戴維森(Adam Davidson)撰寫了本周關於奧巴馬醫改的特寫。
翻譯:鄧力

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