武漢，人間煉獄XX：
【武汉风险级别下调至中风险，上海、泉州亮红灯】中国湖北疾控中心周三宣布了专家评估结果，决定把这次疫情爆发地武汉的风险等级从高风险下调到中风险。全省低风险市共75个，中风险县市1个，已经没有高风险县市。不过，人们从网上时常可以看到民间传出的信息，暴露新的感染病例多有发生。 https://www.voachinese.com/a/5344485.html
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美国国务卿蓬佩奥在国试听会议记者招待会上表示：“中国共产党对我们的健康和生活方式构成了重大威胁，新冠流行病清楚地证明了这一点。”24日在一个广播节目中，蓬佩奥曾表示，是中国和伊朗官员一直在传播毫无根据的嫁祸美国是病毒来源说法的原因。蓬佩奥说：“他们试图逃避他们的领导人决策失误所应承担的责任”。
美-中關係危機；雙方在軍事上也已做好充分凖備。"台獨"注意：中美交恶，台湾麻雀变凤凰？
A Group of Seven nations meeting ended without a joint statement because members wouldn’t agree with a U.S. request to refer to the novel coronavirus as the "Wuhan virus."
What then, are the two mixed signals coming from prominent Chinese diplomats over the pandemic?
In this week's China up close.
*** 牛津大學研究報告：封城"防病毒散播，然而真正城效要看以後無徵狀確認者的第二波回噬力道
COVID-19: Study shows that Wuhan travel restrictions prevented wider disease spread; but impact takes time
A mobility and epidemiological study from a global consortium of researchers, led by the University of Oxford, Northeastern University and Harvard Medical School, has shown that travel restrictions from and within Wuhan and Hubei from 23rd January worked to prevent the wider spread of COVID-19.
Provinces outside Hubei that acted early to test, track and contain imported COVID-19 cases fared the best at preventing or containing local outbreaks. However, the benefits from both approaches took time to be seen due to asymptomatic transmission.
Mobile geolocation data from Baidu Inc, combined with a rich epidemiological dataset from the Open COVID-19 Data Working Group, showed that local person-to-person transmission happened extensively early on in the coronavirus outbreak and was mitigated by drastic control measures. However, with an average incubation period of 5 days, and up to 14 days in some cases, these mobility restrictions did not begin to positively impact the data on new cases for over a week – with things appearing to get worse in the 5-7 days immediately after the lockdown as local transmission had already occurred.
Among cases reported outside Hubei, 515 cases had a known travel history to Wuhan and a symptom onset date before 31st January 2020, compared with only 39 after 31st January, illustrating the effect of travel restrictions in decreasing the spread to other Chinese provinces.
Dr Moritz Kraemer from the Oxford Martin Programme on Pandemic Genomics at the University of Oxford, said: 'Our findings show that early in the coronavirus outbreak travel restrictions were effective in preventing the import of infections from a known source. However, once the COVID-19 outbreak begins spreading locally that becomes the most prominent source of infection. This is where a full package of measures including mobility restrictions, testing, tracing and isolating need to work together to mitigate local spread. Chinese provinces and other countries that have halted internal transmission of COVID-19 need to consider carefully how they will manage reinstating travel and mobility to avoid the reintroduction of the disease into their populations.'
Professor Samuel Scarpino of Network Science Institute (NetSI) at Northeastern University, said: 'The political will in many countries is lagging behind the spread of COVID-19. Lockdowns and quarantines work, but it takes time because the infection rate is 5 to 14 days ahead of any mitigation action taken. Travel and mobility restrictions are the most useful right at the start, when local transmission has not yet become a factor. But all epidemiological decisions have very important political implications and it’s this that governments and policymakers need to balance.'
The full paper “The effect of human mobility and control measures on the COVID-19 epidemic in China” was published in the journal Science on 25th March 2020 and available at https://science.sciencemag.org/lookup/doi/10.1126/science.abb4218.
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A lesson for all: social-distancing measures may not just flatten the curve of infections but also delay later waves of the outbreak.
China’s long lockdown in Wuhan may have bought the country months of time before a feared second wave of coronavirus cases peaks, according to a study with implications for how long other nations may have to maintain similar restrictions.
Reopening schools and businesses in April might push back the highest point of a second wave to October, giving health systems more time to prepare, researchers said in a study published in Lancet Public Health. Lifting the measures just a month earlier, in March, might have resulted in a wave of infections cresting in late August, the researchers found.
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