日經中文網特稿：8比0──比較中日兩國今年（截至11月中旬）登上英國《經濟學家》週刊封面的次數，中國以壓倒性優勢獲勝。
類似的情況在三年前日本舉行眾議院選舉後就出現過。統計中日兩國的國名在2009年1～8月《經濟學家》週刊的標題中出現的次數，中國以25比19領先日 本。從那時起，歐美對中國的關注度就已經超過了日本。而此次在全球影響力方面，中國領導層換屆同樣是以壓倒性優勢超過了日本眾議院解散。
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| 圖為3D印表機的嘗試製造的產品 |
中國的獨贏模式在10年後還能否行得通？
這種模式或許在5年內還不會崩潰，但10年後的話，又會如何呢？
以蘋果公司為例。波士頓諮詢集團的高級合夥人太田直樹預測：“蘋果公司遲早會採用3D（三維）列印方式，就像普通列印一樣來製造符合顧客喜好的手機等產 品”。智慧手機“iPhone”已經不使用模具，而是通過切削機一部一部地自動成型。這一設計思想很接近3D列印的構想。3D印表機不是傳統意義的印表 機，是一種立體物體的加工製造。“也許終於有一天，生產基地會從中國轉移到蘋果手機連鎖店，或者是接通網際網路的消費者家裏。”也就是說，未來的產品生 產，將會像用印表機列印一樣方便。
目前，蘋果公司的產品幾乎全是在富士康中國工廠裏的所有生產線上製造，員工達到100萬人。但如果3D印表機技術進一步發展，不用將生產集中在人工成本相對便宜的中國，也能將產品送到全世界的顧客手中，“世界工廠”就會面臨生存危機。
實際上針對不斷崛起的中國，美國正試圖以舉國之力來製造這樣的局面。
美國謀劃的數字時代製造業革命
美國總統奧巴馬已經贏得連任。“綠色新政”可以說是過去四年裏最具代表性的產業政策，但實際上還有其他動作。這就包括數字時代的製造業革命。
美國政府在最近兩三年裏鼓勵全國的小學將3D印表機納入到手工課的教授內容。希望從初等教育起就告訴孩子們今後的生產是這樣的。
另外美國今年還通過了一項鼓勵在網上募集社會資金作為創業基金的法律。似乎是為了從側面扶持那些利用網路與CAD立體繪圖軟體、3D印表機來開創新事業的人。
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| iPad mini 的發佈會 |
對於企業和國家來說，供應鏈及貿易形態可能發生巨大變化。全球化在最近10年裏催生了蘋果公司和中國這兩個大贏家，但中國今後能否繼續做“世界工廠”？這或許會引起人們的熱議。
這次的製造業革命會發展到什麼程度？線索依然在美國。
“新聯合汽車製造公司（NUMMI）”是以前通用汽車（GM）與豐田合資運營的汽車工廠。不過，現在的所有者是新興電動汽車廠商特斯拉汽車公司。該公司設 置於矽谷，是當地距離從中西部向南部延伸的汽車產業區最遠的汽車工廠。NUMMI在通用時代曾被批評為“成本全美最高”，不過，據稱借助新創意，大部分不 利條件已經被慢慢克服。
首先是構建了零部件交易的“生態系統”。利用網路、CAD及最尖端機床，通過一個程式，便可製造任何零部件及模具。據說，同一條生產線上也能製造出一輛輛截然不同的汽車。
“汽車工業終於從必須量產的制約中解放出來。小型企業也有機會參與，成功的可能性日益提高”，特斯拉公司首席執行官埃隆·馬斯克在接受美國雜誌採訪時這樣表示。
據馬斯克稱，用於製造產品的資訊將全部實現數字化，共用、變更及改良都將變得比較簡單。如果使用網路，還可在全球範圍內收集設計及創意，並反映到汽車製造中。
不過，如果產品資訊數字化，而生產設備流入中國的話，就業崗位有可能被中國全部奪走。對此，馬斯克表示：“汽車早晚也會變成可以利用3D印表機‘列印’出來，並像ｉPｈｏｎｅ一樣，通過下載軟體來提高性能的商品”，他認為“工廠不會僅僅集中在中國”。
不過，隨著3D列印技術的進步，汽車製造業的生產基地及就業崗位即便不集中在中國，也會分散到全球範圍。包括零部件製造業在內，將會發生很大的變化。美國針對中國掀起的產品製造革命，實際上很有可能從汽車領域開始……
作者為日本經濟新聞（中文版：日經中文網）產業部副部長中山淳史
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Manufacturing
The new maker rules
Big forces are reshaping the world of manufacturing
Nov 24th 2012 | NEW YORK
| from the print edition
Mr Pettis, the founder of MakerBot, a maker of low-cost 3D printers, spoke at the opening of his firm’s first retail store on November 20th in New York. It will sell desktop MakerBots, which make things out of plastic, for just $2,200. It is still early days, but MakerBots and machines like them are “empowering people to make the things they want, rather than buy them from factories,” says Mr Pettis.
Certainly 3D printing is hot. Some firms are already using the technology, which is also known as additive manufacturing because it involves building up material layer by layer. It can be used to make such things as prototype cars, hearing aids, customised dolls and medical implants. On the same day that Mr Pettis opened his store, GE announced it had bought for an undisclosed sum Morris Technologies, a Cincinnati firm that uses industrial 3D printers (which cost $500,000 or more) to print objects for engineers. Morris will be printing metal parts for a new GE jet engine.
Yet 3D printing is just one of many production technologies and trends which are transforming the way companies will be able to make things in the future. The old rules of manufacturing, such as “you must seek economies of scale” and “you must reduce unit-labour costs”, are being cast aside. New machines can print every item differently. More flexible robots are getting cheaper and better at doing all the boring and dirty stuff.
Add to that another 1.8 billion consumers who will join the global marketplace in the next 15 years and “Manufacturing the Future”, a new report by the McKinsey Global Institute, has good cause to be optimistic. Demand will grow not only for basic goods (which are typically made in developing countries) but also for the costly, innovative gadgets and high-tech products that rich countries make. McKinsey reckons that rich countries will keep making such products better than anyone else.
Developing countries will continue to increase their share of global production. Measured by nominal value added, by 2010 China had surpassed Japan to become the second-largest manufacturing nation, after America. A decade earlier it was in fourth place. In the same period, Brazil jumped from 12th to 6th and India from 14th to 10th. Britain slipped from 5th to 9th.
Rich countries’ relative position may be slipping, but their absolute manufacturing output is rising quite fast. What has fallen is the number of workers needed on the factory floor. Even though some manufacturing is returning to America and Europe from places where it had been offshored, such as China, this trend will not recreate all the factory jobs that once existed.
The term “manufacturing” nowadays describes a whole range of activities. McKinsey divides it into five categories. The biggest, accounting for 34% of the $10.5 trillion total worldwide manufacturing value-added in 2010, it calls “global innovation for local markets”. This includes industries such as chemicals, machinery and carmaking, where constant innovation is essential and high transport costs for heavy goods make it sensible to produce these things close to customers.
The next-biggest, at 28%, is “regional processing”, which includes industries such as fabricated metals, food and publishing. For obvious reasons, cakes are baked locally: not just because they go stale quickly but also because local tastes vary. “Energy and resource-intensive commodities”, such as wood, paper and petrol, account for 22%; “Innovative global technologies” (chips, computers and medical products) are 9%; and “labour-intensive tradeables” (textiles, clothes and toys) 7%. These last two categories have typically been offshored by rich countries and probably will be for some time.
In the other areas where rich countries compete, there is a dark cloud building. McKinsey sees a fast-growing shortage of people with the skills manufacturers require, particularly as ageing baby-boomers retire. That is why American firms such as Dow and DuPont keep clamouring for better education in science, technology, engineering and mathematics. Yet the rich world still leads in high-tech industries. In 2010 it ran a $726 billion surplus in goods such as cars, chemicals, drugs and machinery, but it had a $342 billion trade deficit in labour-intensive tradeables.
It’s all a blur, really
McKinsey sheds new light on another old saw: is manufacturing superior to services? It is becoming ever harder to tell the two apart, as many manufacturing jobs blur with service jobs. At American “manufacturers”, 34% of jobs are service-like, rising to 55% in the global-innovative-technology sector. If one counts the workers in supporting services and those who provide raw materials, total American manufacturing employment was 17.2m in 2010, rather than the official 11.5m. Remove all service-like jobs and it drops to 7.3m.
In the future, McKinsey predicts there will be more jobs for robots. Since 1990 the cost of automation has fallen relative to labour by 40-50% in the rich world, it says. The rise of the machines will continue in rich countries, and they will make inroads into developing ones. Wages in emerging markets are soaring. One Chinese manufacturer is talking of hiring 1m robots. Still, robots need people to build, program and maintain them. Humans have no cause to hold their heads in their hands.
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7月1日，陸客自由行，帶動觀光服務業大躍進，彷彿許了台灣一個夢：高污染工業、低階工作外移，只要致力服務業與創意產業，就能享受經濟繁榮、又躋身高階工作的贏者圈。
事實卻不是如此。光有服務，沒有製造，不是美好的國家之路。過去10年，以金融業服務業為發展主調的經濟合作開發組織（OECD）先進國，從美國到歐洲都飽嘗製造業外移之苦。
風險1：製造業下探 GDP組成不夠多元
當 一個國家製造業不斷外移，也就失去讓新興產業發芽的機會。台灣的製造實力，曾讓創新大師克里斯汀生讚嘆不已。但是，這榮景水波下，逐漸浮出警訊。跟美國一 樣，台灣製造業對ＧＤＰ貢獻也逐年下降，從1990年代的40％，一路下滑到09年不到30％的新低，去年才又回升到31％。台灣製造業未來如果一直往下 探，降到美國、英國、日本的水準，GDP組成將落入不夠多元的風險。
風險2：就業與低薪
製造業就業人口佔比，從90年代的42％降至36％，專家指出，這也是造成台灣長期低薪的原因之一。台灣經濟研究院二所所長張建一分
析，台灣服務業佔GDP約7成，雇用近6成人口，但對經濟成長率貢獻卻不高，服務業也很難為員工加薪。台灣去年經濟成長率超過10％，有7成還是來自製造
業的貢獻。
先進製造 創造好工作
從行政院主計處的資料分析，台灣製造業前10名行業的平均薪資約6萬1千元，遠高於服務業前10名行業的平均薪資4萬7千元。服務業當中薪資水準較高的行業，也是屬於支援製造業的服務業，而不是受雇最多的批發零售業。
製造業對於工作機會的多重效益，是任何產業都比不上的。根據美國經濟分析局精算，製造業相較於其他產業，有最大的多重效益。製造業生產每1美元產品，將帶動其他部門1.4美元的產出。
放眼經濟發展和搶救就業，全球各國都不得不加入這波搶製造的熱潮。不只美國，已經是世界工廠的中國，更不願意放棄。
台灣到底要什麼製造業？
今年，台灣勇敢拒絕國光石化在彰化設廠，如果這是台灣人民的共識，不要高耗能產業，那麼，台灣到底要留下什麼製造業？
「如果不努力轉型，一定會發生產業空洞化，」經濟部工業局局長杜紫軍憂心說。
杜紫軍接著說，拋棄單純靠投入資源與產量來提高產能的思惟。經濟部已經研擬具體的2020年產業發展策略，包括提高附加價值率、無形資產佔固定資本比重提高到15％、綠能佔製造業產值提高到30％。
以「產值」衡量產業存在價值的觀念，已經過時。新的衡量標準又是什麼？這不只關係到產業發展，更關係到台灣民眾明日的工作。...（全文未完，閱讀更多精彩內容，請購買天下雜誌最新出刊476期>>）
美國
先進製造 創造好工作
從行政院主計處的資料分析，台灣製造業前10名行業的平均薪資約6萬1千元，遠高於服務業前10名行業的平均薪資4萬7千元。服務業當中薪資水準較高的行業，也是屬於支援製造業的服務業，而不是受雇最多的批發零售業。
製造業對於工作機會的多重效益，是任何產業都比不上的。根據美國經濟分析局精算，製造業相較於其他產業，有最大的多重效益。製造業生產每1美元產品，將帶動其他部門1.4美元的產出。
放眼經濟發展和搶救就業，全球各國都不得不加入這波搶製造的熱潮。不只美國，已經是世界工廠的中國，更不願意放棄。
台灣到底要什麼製造業？
今年，台灣勇敢拒絕國光石化在彰化設廠，如果這是台灣人民的共識，不要高耗能產業，那麼，台灣到底要留下什麼製造業？
「如果不努力轉型，一定會發生產業空洞化，」經濟部工業局局長杜紫軍憂心說。
杜紫軍接著說，拋棄單純靠投入資源與產量來提高產能的思惟。經濟部已經研擬具體的2020年產業發展策略，包括提高附加價值率、無形資產佔固定資本比重提高到15％、綠能佔製造業產值提高到30％。
以「產值」衡量產業存在價值的觀念，已經過時。新的衡量標準又是什麼？這不只關係到產業發展，更關係到台灣民眾明日的工作。...（全文未完，閱讀更多精彩內容，請購買天下雜誌最新出刊476期>>）
美國
Time to declare a manufacturing renaissance?
A worker at an American Apparel factory in Los Angeles (Gary Friedman/Los Angeles…)
Is
it time to finally declare a manufacturing renaissance? An index by the
Institute for Supply Management has grown for 33 straight months, and
Rust Belt states such as Ohio and Michigan have registered big drops in
unemployment over the year. Ohio dropped to 7.5% unemployment in March
from 8.8% the previous year, and Michigan dropped to 8.5% from 10.5% in
March of last year.
The
folks at Manning & Napier, the $40-billion asset management firm,
say there are some reasons to be very optimistic about manufacturing in
the U.S. Wages overseas are rising – China alone has experienced
double-digit wage growth in each of the last two years. Supply chain
disruptions in the wake of the Japanese tsunami are making companies
rethink depending solely on emerging markets for products. And the U.S.
energy boom makes it cheaper to pay the utility bills if you manufacture
here.
“We are in the very early innings of this trend,” said Chris Petrosino, managing director of the quantitative strategies group at Manning & Napier.
This is the first time in more than two decades that manufacturing employment as a percentage of total nonfarm employment has stopped falling, according to a Manning & Napier report entitled “The U.S. Manufacturing Renaissance: Silver Lining, Not Silver Bullet.” The nation has added nearly half a million manufacturing jobs from January 2010 to February 2012. While employment won’t return to 1970s levels, the multiplier effect that manufacturing has on the economy is good news – every factory job added creates three additional jobs.
The areas benefiting from this trend are specific, said Michael Knolla, a research analyst at the firm. They’re areas with access to low-cost transportation, rail centers and low-cost energy.
“It used to be you wanted access to a hydroelectric dam, now you want access to the pipelines,” he said.
And it’s not every type of product being manufactured in the U.S as a part of this trend. Those that are heavy to ship but cheaper to sell are more likely to be made here. For example, a washing machine is a good candidate to be made in the U.S.A. since it is heavy to ship and not that expensive to sell. A car, on the other hand, may be heavy to ship, but is still pricey on the market, so worth making overseas. Products that are customized are more likely to be made here, as well as those that companies need quickly.
The one obstacle to this renaissance: skills. As manufacturing is automated, companies need more skilled workers to run machines, Knolla said. During the recession, training programs have been scrapped and it's nearly impossible for low-skilled workers to move up the chain. Until that problem is solved, the renaissance has a real chance of going kaput.
“We are in the very early innings of this trend,” said Chris Petrosino, managing director of the quantitative strategies group at Manning & Napier.
This is the first time in more than two decades that manufacturing employment as a percentage of total nonfarm employment has stopped falling, according to a Manning & Napier report entitled “The U.S. Manufacturing Renaissance: Silver Lining, Not Silver Bullet.” The nation has added nearly half a million manufacturing jobs from January 2010 to February 2012. While employment won’t return to 1970s levels, the multiplier effect that manufacturing has on the economy is good news – every factory job added creates three additional jobs.
The areas benefiting from this trend are specific, said Michael Knolla, a research analyst at the firm. They’re areas with access to low-cost transportation, rail centers and low-cost energy.
“It used to be you wanted access to a hydroelectric dam, now you want access to the pipelines,” he said.
And it’s not every type of product being manufactured in the U.S as a part of this trend. Those that are heavy to ship but cheaper to sell are more likely to be made here. For example, a washing machine is a good candidate to be made in the U.S.A. since it is heavy to ship and not that expensive to sell. A car, on the other hand, may be heavy to ship, but is still pricey on the market, so worth making overseas. Products that are customized are more likely to be made here, as well as those that companies need quickly.
The one obstacle to this renaissance: skills. As manufacturing is automated, companies need more skilled workers to run machines, Knolla said. During the recession, training programs have been scrapped and it's nearly impossible for low-skilled workers to move up the chain. Until that problem is solved, the renaissance has a real chance of going kaput.
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