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2009年2月26日 星期四

Obama Plans

Obama Plans Major Shifts in Spending

Published: February 26, 2009

WASHINGTON — Proclaiming a “once in a generation” opportunity, President Obama proposed a 10-year budget on Thursday that reflects his determination in the face of recession to invest trillions of dollars and his own political capital in reshaping the nation’s priorities.

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Doug Mills/The New York Times

President Obama delivered remarks about the Fiscal Year 2010 budget at the White House on Thursday.

Stephen Crowley/The New York Times

Copies of the budget, titled "A New Era of Responsibility," were distributed to reporters at the Government Printing Office in Washington on Thursday.

Doug Mills/The New York Times

President Obama, with, from left, Office of Management and Budget deputy director Rob Nabors, chief White House economic adviser Lawrence H. Summers, chairwoman of the Council of Economic Advisers Christina D. Romer and Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., spoke about the budget on Thursday at the Eisenhower Executive Office Building in Washington.

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Mr. Obama would overhaul health care, begin to arrest global warming, expand the federal role in education and shift more costs to some corporations and the wealthiest taxpayers.

In a veiled gibe at the Bush years, Mr. Obama said his budget broke “from a troubled past” and attributed the current economic maelstrom to “an era of profound irresponsibility that engulfed both private and public institutions from some of our largest companies’ executive suites to the seats of power in Washington, D.C.”

Without trimming his ambitious campaign promises, the president projects a budget for the 2010 fiscal year of nearly $3.6 trillion. He said he would shrink annual deficits, now at levels not seen in six decades, mostly through higher revenue from rich individuals and polluting industries, by reducing war costs and by assuming a rate of economic growth by 2010 that private forecasters and even some White House advisers consider overly rosy.

None of the new taxes and other sources of revenue, however, would take effect until the economy recovers, administration officials said.

Mr. Obama’s first budget was light on proposals to cut spending, despite his statement at the White House on Thursday that the government would be “cutting what we don’t need to pay for what we do.” But the cuts he does propose, contrasted against his new spending, underscore the change he seeks.

Mr. Obama would slash about $5 billion in the coming year for direct payments to agribusinesses and farmers with more than $500,000 in annual revenue, and $4 billion in annual subsidies to private banks that make college loans. Instead he would increase spending for government Pell Grants to needy students, and for the first time index the maximum yearly grant for inflation.

Those two cuts alone will provoke big fights with the farm and banking lobbies and their supporters in Congress.

Republicans and business groups condemned the tax proposals. Robert Greenstein, executive director of the left-leaning Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, praised the budget as “bold, courageous and honest” but acknowledged that it takes on “one vested interest after another, and that will require all of the president’s skills to get through Congress.”

Mr. Obama will need the help of Democratic leaders in Congress, who promised to get to work right away. Republicans, however, were quick to charge that the proposals to raise some taxes would be job-killers, and served notice that they would challenge Mr. Obama’s agenda by drawing an ideological distinction with the Democrats.

“I have serious concerns with this budget, which demands hardworking American families and job creators turn over more of their hard-earned money to the government to pay for unprecedented spending increases,” said the Senate Republican leader, Mitch McConnell of Kentucky.

Having inherited an economy in recession and reeling from interrelated credit and housing crises, Mr. Obama starts off from a stunning deficit for 2009 that is projected to reach $1.75 trillion when the fiscal year ends Sept. 30, or nearly four times last year’s shortfall. That would represent 12.3 percent of the gross domestic product, a deficit level that is larger than any since the end of World War II.

By the last year of his term, in the 2013 fiscal year, Mr. Obama projects a deficit of $533 billion, or 3 percent of the overall economy, a level that economists consider sustainable. Even so, he foresees the level of the nation’s debt held by the public rising from 58.7 percent in the current year to 67.2 percent in a decade, a level not seen since 1951.

Of the $3.55 trillion requested for the 2010 fiscal year that begins in October, more than $2 trillion is mandatory spending for the programs — chiefly Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security — that provide benefits to all who are eligible.

Departing from the free market orthodoxy of his predecessor, George W. Bush, Mr. Obama would use the government’s powers of spending and taxation to push the private market in new directions.

With higher taxes on the wealthy and savings squeezed from health care providers, drugmakers and insurers, Mr. Obama would create a $634 billion, 10-year “health reform reserve” as a down payment to finance disease prevention, wellness programs and research on cost-effective treatments ultimately to cut health care costs. More than any other expense, health care is driving future projections of unsustainable deficits. The health reserve would also be used to create affordable insurance programs for individuals and employers.

The president would remake the energy sector to reduce reliance on foreign oil and address global warming, by requiring industries to buy permits to emit the heat-trapping gases that contribute to global warming. The revenue would pay to develop alternative energy sources and to provide tax relief for Americans facing higher prices from utilities and industries passing on their permit costs.

Mr. Obama’s tax proposals would reverse a trend toward greater income inequality in recent years by adding about $1 trillion over 10 years to the tax burden of the top 5 percent of taxpayers, roughly those making more than $250,000 a year. He would let the Bush income-tax cuts lapse after 2010 as scheduled for people at that income — he would extend them for everyone else — and limit the deductions top-earners can take. He would also raise income taxes on hedge fund and private equity partners.

“Over the past two or three decades, the top 1 percent of Americans have experienced a dramatic increase from 10 percent to more than 20 percent in the share of national income that’s accruing to them,” Mr. Obama’s director of the Office of Management and Budget, Peter R. Orszag, said in a briefing for reporters. “So we are asking them to pitch in a bit more.”

Mr. Orszag emphasized that it was “just factually wrong” to say the administration was raising taxes in a recession because the tax increases and industry permits would not take effect until at least 2011.

Republicans pounced anyway, charging that Democrats were returning to their tax-and-spend habits of the past. Senator Judd Gregg of New Hampshire, the senior Republican on the Budget Committee, asked, “Where is the restraint on spending?”

Representative Steny H. Hoyer, a Maryland Democrat who is the House majority leader, dismissed the charge in an interview by recalling the six years during the Bush administration when Republicans controlled Congress. “What they did was raise spending and raise debt,” Mr. Hoyer said. “Now we are left with the obligation to try to get us back to balance.”

Mr. Hoyer predicted that the House, where Democrats have a significant majority, would pass an energy bill this year but that health care legislation might take longer. Both initiatives face bigger hurdles in the Senate, where Republicans have just enough votes to block legislation, requiring Mr. Obama to court the few Republican moderates, as he did to pass the $787 billion two-year economic stimulus package.

In a worrisome sign for the president, one of those Republican allies on the stimulus, Senator Olympia J. Snowe of Maine, in a statement called the president’s goals “worthy” but added, “While this budget claims to be long on fiscal responsibility and deficit reduction, it falls woefully short of these objectives.”

A significant share of Mr. Obama’s projected deficit reduction owes to assumptions about economic growth that are more optimistic than private forecasts. Some Obama advisers privately objected that the rosy projections would draw criticism about manipulating the numbers, but Christina D. Romer, the chairwoman of Mr. Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers, insisted to them that the projections were realistic.

After negative growth of 1.2 percent this year, the budget projects growth of 3.2 percent in 2010, and 4 percent or more in the following three years. In contrast, the consensus of business economists surveyed by Blue Chip Economic Indicators this month projected growth no higher than 2.9 percent through 2013.

Carl Hulse and Peter Baker contributed reporting.

奧巴馬提交3.6萬億美元財政預算案

2009年02月27日11:15



國總統奧巴馬(Barack Obama)週四向國會提交了一份3.6萬億美元的2010財政年度預算案﹐稱預算案意在和混亂的過去決裂。預算案包括擴大政府活動﹐向富裕家庭和企業增稅﹐削減那些從他所稱的“一個極度不負責任時期”受益的部門支出。

這份預算案是聯邦政府數十年來最有雄心的政策措施之一﹐
包括對聯邦政府重新安排以提供全國醫療保險﹐推動能源經濟減少對石油和天然氣的依賴﹐加大聯邦政府對教育的投入。

美軍從伊拉克撤軍可能會結束一個戰場的戰爭﹐
而另一場戰爭可能會在阿富汗再度升級。為了提供資金﹐年收入超過25萬美元的美國家庭和大量企業都將支付高昂的費用﹐但奧巴馬懇請美國民眾接受過去犯下的錯誤﹐作出重大犧牲。

奧巴馬週四早間說﹐我們需要坦率接受正不斷增加的成本﹐
因為這才是我們努力應對眼前艱難抉擇的方式。我們面臨著一些艱難的選擇。

奧巴馬將美國目前的經濟問題歸咎於前任政府﹐
怪罪於美國失去了方向。他的預算案預計﹐2009年聯邦預算赤字將達到1.75萬億美元﹐佔國內生產總值(GDP)的12.3%﹐比例之高是1942年美國全面陷入二戰以來從未出現的。

奧巴馬在134頁預算案的簡介中表示﹐
這次危機既不是正常商業週期扭轉的結果﹐也不是一次歷史意外。我們之所以會到現在這個地步﹐是因為此前那個極端不負責任的時期﹔從美國一些最大企業的高管到華盛頓特區身居高位的權要﹐私人和公共機構都未能倖免。

奧巴馬在預算案中稱﹐政府計劃到2013年將預算赤字降到5,
330億美元﹐但隨著嬰兒潮核心人群開始領取社會保障和醫療保險福利﹐屆時赤字會開始再度攀升。

這份預算案的推出可能預示著華盛頓會出現一場多年未見的最為猛烈
的政治鬥爭﹐而且會在多個戰場打響。數分鐘內﹐共和黨議員就開始指責預算會引起階級衝突﹐可能使美國在未來數年陷入衰退泥潭。商業遊說組織則早在預算案公佈之前就已準備迎戰。甚至民主黨議員也可能反對對農業和此前屢試屢敗的其他項目削減預算。

預算案還撥出了一筆2,
500億美元的資金以完成奧巴馬救助金融市場、穩定銀行體系的工作。這筆資金在國會已經批准的7,000億美元救助資金之外﹐而且金額可能還會增加。預算案明確指出﹐這筆準備資金將用於槓桿收購施壓銀行業帳面的問題資產﹐總計7,500億美元的資產收購。這可能意味著原先救助規模最後會增加一倍。

奧巴馬提議大舉增加教育經費﹐包括將面向高等教育的貝爾獎學金(
Pell Grants)和通貨膨脹相關聯﹐並將這個大眾獎學金轉型為一個自動的權利項目。作為政府更為廣泛擴大基礎設施投資計劃的一部分﹐高速鐵路也將獲得每年10億美元的預算﹐即便奧巴馬7,870億美元刺激計劃已經包括了這方面資金。

國防部2010年預算將增加204億美元﹐較2009年增長4%
﹐雖比不上布什當政時期的增速﹐但可以滿足陸軍和海軍陸戰隊的增兵需要。按照奧巴馬的要求﹐伊拉克和阿富汗戰爭2009年剩下時間的預算為755億美元﹐明年則還需要1,300億美元。原因是奧巴馬雖然打算在19個月內從伊拉克撤軍﹐但計劃將大部分撤出的部隊部署到阿富汗。

作為預算中最具雄心的提議﹐奧巴馬計劃限制溫室氣體排放﹐
強迫污染方購買排放許可。經過這些努力﹐到2020年美國的溫室氣體排放量將比2005年減少14%﹐到2050年將減少83%。排放許可將從2012年開始出售﹐在2019年之前可望收入6,460億美元。政府將從這筆錢中拿出5,257億美元用於奧巴馬簽署的“勞有所得”家庭扺稅計劃﹐每對有工作的夫婦可以享受800美元扺稅額。剩下的1,200億美元則投入到清潔能源技術上。

奧巴馬承認﹐他那6,
300億美元的國家醫療保障計劃無法讓每一個美國人都享受到﹐但他表示這將只是個開始。

為了籌措預算所需資金﹐
奧巴馬明顯已選好了這場博奕中的贏家和輸家--首先就是要拿富人開刀。奧巴馬用帶著怒氣的民粹主義口吻(這是他在選戰中盡力避免的)寫道﹕為了給富人和有後臺的人實施巨額減稅﹐我們犧牲了教育、清潔能源、醫療保障和基礎建設投資。在面對此番景象時﹐華盛頓忽視了中產階級在強壓之下舉步維艱...掙錢並沒有錯﹐但容忍政策傾斜到讓如此少的一部分人一直獨佔好處就不對了。

如此說來﹐這份預算計劃可視為一種報復。正如所料﹐
從2011年開始﹐年收入超過20萬美元的個人和收入超過25萬美元的夫婦要繳納更多稅--在10年內為政府多貢獻6,560億美元。僅提高所得稅率一項就可以增收3,390億美元。對個人免稅和分項扣除進行限制將增收1,800億美元。提高資本利得稅率將增收1,180億美元。原定於明年取消的遺產稅將被保留下來﹐對個人繼承遺產超過350萬美元--夫婦繼承超過700萬美元--將徵收45%的遺產稅。

企業也將受到影響。通過限制跨國企業對海外利潤進行避稅﹐
估計政府可以在未來十年內增加2,100億美元收入。對沖基金和私募基金的經理人將另外貢獻240億美元﹐今後他們的收入將按所得稅率納稅而不是資本利得稅率。石油和天然氣公司受的打擊會特別大﹐他們所享受的多種稅收減免將被取消。

聯邦政府將接手大部分助學貸款。
經營管理式醫療的公司將失去因提供醫保計劃而獲得的補貼。經營收入50萬美元以上的農場主獲得的補貼將逐步取消。聯邦政府將不再為棉花儲備提供資金。

奧巴馬公佈預算計劃時稱﹐有時候你可以負擔得起裝修房屋的費用。
但有時候你需要將注意力放在重建地基上。眼下正是該重視地基的時候。

Jonathan Weisman

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