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2008年7月16日 星期三

不要輕易相信世界級的權威預估

這英國的名園在21世紀初改為獨立的基金會
接受政府的補助娟款
英國政府當然花大全錢請顧問公司研究
預估的訪客人數是實際的什分之一(十年間 )
真是人算不如天算
所以
不要輕易相信預估
不管引用什麼世界級的權威


The garden has certainly outperformed the expectations of a feasibility study conducted by KMPG, the accounting firm, in 1997, which estimated it would attract 67,000 visitors a year -- only slightly more than the number of ticket buyers who toured the castle at the time. During its first full year of operation, the garden had 250,000 visitors, and by last year the number had jumped to 625,000.

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