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2024年11月11日 星期一

The Economist 智慧 what could possibly go wrong

 立讀:智慧The Economist,有自己的選舉預測模式,背書A君, 選前一周封面B君)what could possibly go wrong(. 終於修成正果。



 

The Economist this week

Highlights from the latest issue


The Economist

Zanny Minton Beddoes
Editor-in-chief

The Economist has endorsed politicians on both the right and left over the decades, in America and elsewhere. We began endorsing American presidential candidates in 1980, when we backed Ronald Reagan, and since then have backed both Democrats and Republicans. If we had a vote in the election on November 5th, we would cast it for Kamala Harris.

Our cover leader is aimed at the cohort of voters, which includes many readers of The Economist, who see a vote for Donald Trump as a calculated risk. They may not see Mr Trump as a person they would want to do business with, or any kind of role model for their children. But they probably think that when he was president he did more good than bad, and that in a second term he may do so again. We believe this analysis is recklessly complacent. It overlooks the tail risk of a second Trump presidency—which we detail in this week’s briefing.

Next to Mr Trump, Ms Harris stands for stability. She has abandoned the Democrats’ most left-wing ideas and is campaigning near the centre. It is hard to imagine Ms Harris being a stellar president. But you cannot imagine her bringing about a catastrophe.

On election night, find our first analysis of early results at the top of our app and homepage. (If you’re a subscriber, you can also sign up to our daily US in brief newsletter.) You can also follow all the live results on the night on our dedicated page soon after polls close at 6pm EST / 11pm GMT. And finally, to read post-election analysis from our Lexington correspondent, sign up to our Checks and Balance newsletter.

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