Yandex

2011年 05月 25日 15:06

Yandex IPO: To Nasdaq With Love

Yandex looks stretched.

Shares of 'Russia's Google' debuted Tuesday on Nasdaq, closing up 55% to $38.84. That puts the company's market capitalization close to $13.2 billion. Coming off a depressed period the prior year, first-quarter net income growth of 62% likely won't be sustained. But assume 45% growth, and the shares fetch nearly 70 times 2011 earnings.

For comparison, take 'China's Google,' Baidu. It trades at 50 times this year's earnings. Yet it operates in a far larger market, has no big competitors after the Chinese government forced Google to limit operations, has higher operating margins and is growing faster. Analysts expect 70% earnings growth this year.

To be sure, Yandex has built an impressive operation. Even as Google has captured about 20% of Russian-language Internet search traffic, Yandex has lifted its own share to 65%. As Russia's market leader, Yandex will benefit from the growth of Russian online advertising.

ZenithOptimedia analyst Jonathan Barnard notes that just 43% of Russians were on the Web in 2010. As that expands, along with the proportion of Russian ad budgets being spent on the Internet, Mr. Barnard says Russia's online ad market will grow at an annual rate of 40% through 2013.

Investors shouldn't forget: This is Russia. Yandex notes in its offering document that 'the legal framework supporting a market economy remains . . . in flux.' And the economy and currency are significantly correlated to the price of oil, which can be volatile.

Censored Chinese Internet companies hardly are the safest investment either. Perhaps the best bet, at a more pedestrian 17 times 2011 earnings, is the original Google back in the U.S.

Rolfe Winkler

Y

andex的表現看上去也就是如此了。

被 稱作“俄羅斯的谷歌”的Yandex 在納斯達克上市首個交易日收盤漲了55%﹐股價升至38.84美元﹐其市值也因此接近132億美元。儘管成功擺脫了上一年業績蕭條的陰影﹐但該公司今年一 季度高達62%的淨收入增幅恐怕難以為繼。但假設盈利增幅能達45%﹐那麼其2011年的預估市盈率也接近70倍。

以“中國的谷歌”百度作為比較。百度今年的市盈率只有50倍。但百度經營的市場比Yandex大得多。在中國政府強迫谷歌限制經營後﹐百度沒有大的競爭對手。其營業利潤率也更高﹐增長速度更快。分析師估計其今年盈利增幅能達70%。

可以肯定的是﹐Yandex的經營業績令人印象深刻。即使谷歌已經佔據了俄文互聯網搜索流量大約20%的份額﹐但Yandex還是將自己的市場份額增加至65%。作為俄羅斯市場的領導者﹐Yandex將受益於俄羅斯在線廣告市場的增長。

實 力傳播（ZenithOptimedia）的分析師巴納德（Jonathan Barnard）指出﹐2010年只有43%的俄羅斯人上網。隨著這一群體的擴大﹐以及俄羅斯廣告預算中用於在線廣告的比例增加﹐巴納德說一直到2013 年底俄羅斯在線廣告市場將以40%的年均速度增長。

但投資者也不應忘記﹐這畢竟是俄羅斯。Yandex在其新股發售文件中指出﹐支撐市場經濟的法律框架仍然多變。俄羅斯經濟和匯率仍然和易波動的油價高度相關。

而遭受審查的中國互聯網公司也難以成為最安全的投資。最好的投資或許還是2011年市盈率只有17倍的谷歌──真正的美國谷歌。

Rolfe Winkler