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2009年2月28日 星期六

凌沧洲:与其做政治影帝,不如开放媒体

中国 | 2009.02.28

凌沧洲:与其做政治影帝,不如开放媒体

2月28日下午,中共中央政治局常委、国务院总理温家宝考察了中国政府网,并在历史上首次与全球网民进行在线文字与视频交流。新华网称“短短的两个小时 内,共收到10万个帖子的提问和留言,以及数万手机用户的信息反馈。”温家宝与网友的交流是想传达怎样的一种信号呢?德国之声中文部记者采访了北京知名媒 体人凌沧洲。

德国之声:您是怎样看待温家宝与网友的这次交流的?

凌沧洲:中国的高级领导人通过网络与网民进行交 流,从形式上来说,也是领导人一个开放的心态,是一个进步。但是,我觉得从总体来讲,还是一个形象营销的工程。就我现在看到的,没有什么太多的突破。而且 我不知道您是否注意到了,我刚才在看新华网,很多网友的提问,新华网上打不开。我的疑问是,是不是温家宝在回答网友提问的时候,还要对这些问题进行“审查 ”,才能够发表,还是有什么疑问。

德国之声:温家宝对一些相对敏感问题的回答,您是否感到满意?

凌沧洲:您知道,虽然说现在提问已经有几十万 条,但是能通过筛选,能进入到温家宝先生视野中问题,我觉得是非常有限的。只能说在中共的高层里边,温还算是比较开明的人士。他的一些回答,有点符合民众 的意愿,但是很多没有给出具体的时间表来。比如说官员财产申报的事,依然是说“在积极准备着”。那么我们不禁要问,这个准备,是要准备到什么时候呢?是不 是一万年太久呢?过去毛泽东有句诗词讲“一万年太久,只争朝夕”。我们的反腐败,权力的制衡机制,民主机制的建立,是不是应该有这种紧迫感呢?

也就是说,总的来讲,我觉得依然是一个“政治影帝”。有个别网民说,温在营造这种亲和力,营造这种亲民的形象,依然是一种作秀和表演。我觉得从某种意义上来讲,是有这个政治影帝的味道。

德国之声:通过这次回答网友提问,您认为国内民众比较关心的焦点话题是什么呢?

凌沧洲:国内民众,我认为关心的焦点一个是民生 问题。自从去年金融海啸以来,珠三角,长三角许多中小企业倒闭之后,带来了大量的失业,包括经济萧条。这种经济萧条,很多网民,很多听众都是感同身受的。 我想你可以看看附近商场的萧条度,倒闭商家的数量,我觉得这是最迫切的问题。

当然另外一个问题是说政治的改革和民主的进程,我认为这是中国老百姓所关心的一个重要的话题。这个包括王府井的自焚事件,包括有人爬上电线杆,挂上牌子高喊“打倒极权,还我政治权力”。公民表达的途径,渠道在哪里呢?

所以我想,与其你“政治影帝”,有上网回答网民 问题的这种途径,或者说这种形式,能不能把网络更开放呢?能不能把传统媒体放开?民间能不能有自由创办报刊,电台,电视台的权力?再有,我们一定要认识 到,现在通过网络来回答网民的这种大背景,是在关闭了几千家网站的基础上来做这种事的。

德国之声:去年的时候,胡锦涛也与网友进行过在线交流,而在温家宝回答网友提问之前,还有网友热议的“躲猫猫事件”,都是通过网络解决的。您如何看待在中国的政治改革中,网络所起的影响作用?

凌沧洲:我认为网络越发地显示出其重要作用。去 年胡到人民网作客,只回答了几个问题,可以说非常简短,不像今天温回答了很多问题。我觉得新一代领导人也在利用网络。同时,互联网也是上帝恩赐给中国人民 非常好的礼物。现在网上的民意正在形成越来越巨大的压力,我想这是当局防不胜防,堵不胜堵的。尽管当局利用大量的关闭网站,包括屏蔽的手段,但是无法扼制 人民对民主和自由的诉求,网络正在显示其强大的民意。我相信它将成为推动中国政治改革的力量之一。

Broadcast TV Faces Struggle to Stay Viable

Broadcast TV Faces Struggle to Stay Viable
Published: February 27, 2009

CBS, home to “60 Minutes,” the “CSI” franchise, “Two and a Half Men” and the new hit crime drama “The Mentalist,” is having a better year in prime time than any other network.

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And yet, as at the other networks, profits have declined sharply at CBS.

For decades, the big three, now big four, networks all had the same game plan: spend many millions to develop and produce scripted shows aimed at a mass audience and national advertisers, with a shelf life of years or decades as reruns in syndication.

But that model, based on attracting enough ad dollars to cover the costs of shows like “Lost” and “ER,” no longer appears viable. Network dramas now cost about $3 million an hour.

The future for the networks, it seems, is more low-cost reality shows, more news and talk, and a greater effort to find new revenue streams, whether they be from receiving subscriber fees as cable channels do, or becoming cable networks themselves, an idea that has gained currency.

The last bastion of the big network audience is the Super Bowl and other live events like the Grammy Awards and the Academy Awards. The rub is that those have traditionally been viewed as promotional outlets for a network’s other shows, and rarely make money themselves.

Ratings over all for broadcast networks continue to decline, making it harder for them to justify their high prices for advertising. Cable channels are spending more on original shows, which bring in new viewers and dampen their appetites for buying repeats of broadcast shows.

For the networks, the crisis is twofold: cultural and financial. For viewers, the result is more low-cost reality shows, prime-time talk and news programs and sports from the institutions that once made “Hill Street Blues,” “All in the Family” and “Cheers.”

NBC’s decision to move Jay Leno to a Monday-through-Friday slot at 10 p.m. eliminates the chance of the network developing another “ER” for that hour, but it will save the network tens of millions of dollars.

The network television landscape is scattered with other examples that speak to a broken business model.

The CW, a lower-profile network owned by CBS and Time Warner, contracted out part of its prime-time schedule to an outside supplier, but shut down the deal after just three months because of low ratings and production problems. MyNetworkTV, a unit of the News Corporation, said it would essentially stop being a broadcast network and instead be a “program service,” supplying shows, some of them reruns of series like “Law and Order: Criminal Intent,” to affiliates. The networks have already lost much of their cultural cachet to cable, which is spending more to develop original programs. For the first time, the winning drama at last year’s Emmy Awards was on basic cable: “Mad Men,” which is on AMC. (“The Sopranos” was the first cable show to receive an Emmy for best drama series, but it was shown on HBO, a premium cable channel).

Financially, the networks are on shaky ground, partly because they rely almost solely on advertising. CBS reported that for the fourth quarter of last year, as the recession deepened, operating income in its television segment declined 40 percent, even though it was by far the most-watched network. In the second week of February, CBS had 12 of the top 20 shows, according to Nielsen Media Research.

News Corporation, which owns Fox, reported operating income of $18 million in broadcast television, compared with $245 million a year ago. And Disney’s broadcasting business had a 60 percent drop in operating income.

For years the major networks raised their ad rates, despite the shrinking audience, because they still offered advertisers a larger audience than anyone else.

“More dollars are chasing fewer eyeballs,” said Gary Carr, director of broadcast services at TargetCast tcm, a media and marketing company.

Lately, the recession has forced down the cost of prime-time commercials on network television, TargetCast said. In the fourth quarter, the average cost for a 30-second prime-time spot declined 15 percent, to about $122,000, the company said.

But advertisers will still pay large premiums for a big audience, particularly for live events like Fox’s “American Idol,” which can command $700,000 for a 30-second spot, according to Adweek. A top network hit of several years ago, NBC’s “Friends,” brought in an estimated $450,000 per 30-second spot.

These circumstances upend the traditional business model of developing comedies and dramas that can live, quite lucratively, for years in syndication.

“Prime-time television has been so expensive,” said Tim Spengler, president of Initiative U.S.A., an agency that is part of Interpublic. “The price premium is getting out of whack, and I think you’ll see some pullback.”

Within the industry, the identity crisis is evident in the debate about the future of the business among network executives.

Jeff Zucker, the chief of NBC Universal, has been more pessimistic, saying, “broadcast television is in a time of tremendous transition, and if we don’t attempt to change the model now, we could be in danger of becoming the automobile industry or the newspaper industry.”

Recently, Robert A. Iger, the chief of the Walt Disney Company, surprised Wall Street when he acknowledged in a conference call with analysts and reporters that some of the company’s businesses were experiencing profound change as competition for people’s time increased and consumers were confronted with an abundance of choices. “This clearly has had an impact on broadcast television,” he said.

One dissenter is Leslie Moonves, the chief of CBS, who defended network television at a media conference in December, saying, “I’m here to tell you — the model ain’t broken.”

ABC had a bit of a resurgence with “Desperate Housewives” and “Lost,” but their ratings are not what they once were. And in the case of “Lost,” it is doubtful that the show would be scheduled today, because of its high cost — its two-episode pilot was said to cost more than $10 million — and its format as a serial, which does not do as well in reruns as self-contained shows.

Broadcast television, for decades an oligarchy of three networks, was once the locus for most of the nation’s shared cultural moments — almost 83 percent of households in the United States watched Elvis Presley’s appearance on “The Ed Sullivan Show” in September 1956, which is said to be the largest audience when measured by that metric. In terms of number of viewers, the final episode of “M*A*S*H,” in 1983, set the record with about 106 million viewers.

The networks have also had deep ties to local communities through affiliate and owned-and-operated stations. Along the way, they minted money.

“It was a license to steal,” said Fred Silverman, the former president and chief executive of NBC who as a programmer was behind the hit shows “The Waltons” and “All in the Family.”

In the last three months of 2008, broadcast networks lost nearly three million viewers, or about 7 percent of their total audience. Overall television viewing is up, however, and some big cable networks, like USA and TNT, are attracting new viewers.

Broadcast networks still bring in the largest audiences, but now they are facing a deep advertising recession that is hitting both the networks and their local stations. Cable networks have also been affected by the ad slump, but those businesses are propped up by subscriber fees.

“That’s why the architecture needs to change,” said Michael Nathanson, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein & Company.

2009年2月26日 星期四

Obama Plans

Obama Plans Major Shifts in Spending

Published: February 26, 2009

WASHINGTON — Proclaiming a “once in a generation” opportunity, President Obama proposed a 10-year budget on Thursday that reflects his determination in the face of recession to invest trillions of dollars and his own political capital in reshaping the nation’s priorities.

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President Obama delivered remarks about the Fiscal Year 2010 budget at the White House on Thursday.

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Copies of the budget, titled "A New Era of Responsibility," were distributed to reporters at the Government Printing Office in Washington on Thursday.

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President Obama, with, from left, Office of Management and Budget deputy director Rob Nabors, chief White House economic adviser Lawrence H. Summers, chairwoman of the Council of Economic Advisers Christina D. Romer and Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., spoke about the budget on Thursday at the Eisenhower Executive Office Building in Washington.

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Mr. Obama would overhaul health care, begin to arrest global warming, expand the federal role in education and shift more costs to some corporations and the wealthiest taxpayers.

In a veiled gibe at the Bush years, Mr. Obama said his budget broke “from a troubled past” and attributed the current economic maelstrom to “an era of profound irresponsibility that engulfed both private and public institutions from some of our largest companies’ executive suites to the seats of power in Washington, D.C.”

Without trimming his ambitious campaign promises, the president projects a budget for the 2010 fiscal year of nearly $3.6 trillion. He said he would shrink annual deficits, now at levels not seen in six decades, mostly through higher revenue from rich individuals and polluting industries, by reducing war costs and by assuming a rate of economic growth by 2010 that private forecasters and even some White House advisers consider overly rosy.

None of the new taxes and other sources of revenue, however, would take effect until the economy recovers, administration officials said.

Mr. Obama’s first budget was light on proposals to cut spending, despite his statement at the White House on Thursday that the government would be “cutting what we don’t need to pay for what we do.” But the cuts he does propose, contrasted against his new spending, underscore the change he seeks.

Mr. Obama would slash about $5 billion in the coming year for direct payments to agribusinesses and farmers with more than $500,000 in annual revenue, and $4 billion in annual subsidies to private banks that make college loans. Instead he would increase spending for government Pell Grants to needy students, and for the first time index the maximum yearly grant for inflation.

Those two cuts alone will provoke big fights with the farm and banking lobbies and their supporters in Congress.

Republicans and business groups condemned the tax proposals. Robert Greenstein, executive director of the left-leaning Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, praised the budget as “bold, courageous and honest” but acknowledged that it takes on “one vested interest after another, and that will require all of the president’s skills to get through Congress.”

Mr. Obama will need the help of Democratic leaders in Congress, who promised to get to work right away. Republicans, however, were quick to charge that the proposals to raise some taxes would be job-killers, and served notice that they would challenge Mr. Obama’s agenda by drawing an ideological distinction with the Democrats.

“I have serious concerns with this budget, which demands hardworking American families and job creators turn over more of their hard-earned money to the government to pay for unprecedented spending increases,” said the Senate Republican leader, Mitch McConnell of Kentucky.

Having inherited an economy in recession and reeling from interrelated credit and housing crises, Mr. Obama starts off from a stunning deficit for 2009 that is projected to reach $1.75 trillion when the fiscal year ends Sept. 30, or nearly four times last year’s shortfall. That would represent 12.3 percent of the gross domestic product, a deficit level that is larger than any since the end of World War II.

By the last year of his term, in the 2013 fiscal year, Mr. Obama projects a deficit of $533 billion, or 3 percent of the overall economy, a level that economists consider sustainable. Even so, he foresees the level of the nation’s debt held by the public rising from 58.7 percent in the current year to 67.2 percent in a decade, a level not seen since 1951.

Of the $3.55 trillion requested for the 2010 fiscal year that begins in October, more than $2 trillion is mandatory spending for the programs — chiefly Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security — that provide benefits to all who are eligible.

Departing from the free market orthodoxy of his predecessor, George W. Bush, Mr. Obama would use the government’s powers of spending and taxation to push the private market in new directions.

With higher taxes on the wealthy and savings squeezed from health care providers, drugmakers and insurers, Mr. Obama would create a $634 billion, 10-year “health reform reserve” as a down payment to finance disease prevention, wellness programs and research on cost-effective treatments ultimately to cut health care costs. More than any other expense, health care is driving future projections of unsustainable deficits. The health reserve would also be used to create affordable insurance programs for individuals and employers.

The president would remake the energy sector to reduce reliance on foreign oil and address global warming, by requiring industries to buy permits to emit the heat-trapping gases that contribute to global warming. The revenue would pay to develop alternative energy sources and to provide tax relief for Americans facing higher prices from utilities and industries passing on their permit costs.

Mr. Obama’s tax proposals would reverse a trend toward greater income inequality in recent years by adding about $1 trillion over 10 years to the tax burden of the top 5 percent of taxpayers, roughly those making more than $250,000 a year. He would let the Bush income-tax cuts lapse after 2010 as scheduled for people at that income — he would extend them for everyone else — and limit the deductions top-earners can take. He would also raise income taxes on hedge fund and private equity partners.

“Over the past two or three decades, the top 1 percent of Americans have experienced a dramatic increase from 10 percent to more than 20 percent in the share of national income that’s accruing to them,” Mr. Obama’s director of the Office of Management and Budget, Peter R. Orszag, said in a briefing for reporters. “So we are asking them to pitch in a bit more.”

Mr. Orszag emphasized that it was “just factually wrong” to say the administration was raising taxes in a recession because the tax increases and industry permits would not take effect until at least 2011.

Republicans pounced anyway, charging that Democrats were returning to their tax-and-spend habits of the past. Senator Judd Gregg of New Hampshire, the senior Republican on the Budget Committee, asked, “Where is the restraint on spending?”

Representative Steny H. Hoyer, a Maryland Democrat who is the House majority leader, dismissed the charge in an interview by recalling the six years during the Bush administration when Republicans controlled Congress. “What they did was raise spending and raise debt,” Mr. Hoyer said. “Now we are left with the obligation to try to get us back to balance.”

Mr. Hoyer predicted that the House, where Democrats have a significant majority, would pass an energy bill this year but that health care legislation might take longer. Both initiatives face bigger hurdles in the Senate, where Republicans have just enough votes to block legislation, requiring Mr. Obama to court the few Republican moderates, as he did to pass the $787 billion two-year economic stimulus package.

In a worrisome sign for the president, one of those Republican allies on the stimulus, Senator Olympia J. Snowe of Maine, in a statement called the president’s goals “worthy” but added, “While this budget claims to be long on fiscal responsibility and deficit reduction, it falls woefully short of these objectives.”

A significant share of Mr. Obama’s projected deficit reduction owes to assumptions about economic growth that are more optimistic than private forecasts. Some Obama advisers privately objected that the rosy projections would draw criticism about manipulating the numbers, but Christina D. Romer, the chairwoman of Mr. Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers, insisted to them that the projections were realistic.

After negative growth of 1.2 percent this year, the budget projects growth of 3.2 percent in 2010, and 4 percent or more in the following three years. In contrast, the consensus of business economists surveyed by Blue Chip Economic Indicators this month projected growth no higher than 2.9 percent through 2013.

Carl Hulse and Peter Baker contributed reporting.

奧巴馬提交3.6萬億美元財政預算案

2009年02月27日11:15



國總統奧巴馬(Barack Obama)週四向國會提交了一份3.6萬億美元的2010財政年度預算案﹐稱預算案意在和混亂的過去決裂。預算案包括擴大政府活動﹐向富裕家庭和企業增稅﹐削減那些從他所稱的“一個極度不負責任時期”受益的部門支出。

這份預算案是聯邦政府數十年來最有雄心的政策措施之一﹐
包括對聯邦政府重新安排以提供全國醫療保險﹐推動能源經濟減少對石油和天然氣的依賴﹐加大聯邦政府對教育的投入。

美軍從伊拉克撤軍可能會結束一個戰場的戰爭﹐
而另一場戰爭可能會在阿富汗再度升級。為了提供資金﹐年收入超過25萬美元的美國家庭和大量企業都將支付高昂的費用﹐但奧巴馬懇請美國民眾接受過去犯下的錯誤﹐作出重大犧牲。

奧巴馬週四早間說﹐我們需要坦率接受正不斷增加的成本﹐
因為這才是我們努力應對眼前艱難抉擇的方式。我們面臨著一些艱難的選擇。

奧巴馬將美國目前的經濟問題歸咎於前任政府﹐
怪罪於美國失去了方向。他的預算案預計﹐2009年聯邦預算赤字將達到1.75萬億美元﹐佔國內生產總值(GDP)的12.3%﹐比例之高是1942年美國全面陷入二戰以來從未出現的。

奧巴馬在134頁預算案的簡介中表示﹐
這次危機既不是正常商業週期扭轉的結果﹐也不是一次歷史意外。我們之所以會到現在這個地步﹐是因為此前那個極端不負責任的時期﹔從美國一些最大企業的高管到華盛頓特區身居高位的權要﹐私人和公共機構都未能倖免。

奧巴馬在預算案中稱﹐政府計劃到2013年將預算赤字降到5,
330億美元﹐但隨著嬰兒潮核心人群開始領取社會保障和醫療保險福利﹐屆時赤字會開始再度攀升。

這份預算案的推出可能預示著華盛頓會出現一場多年未見的最為猛烈
的政治鬥爭﹐而且會在多個戰場打響。數分鐘內﹐共和黨議員就開始指責預算會引起階級衝突﹐可能使美國在未來數年陷入衰退泥潭。商業遊說組織則早在預算案公佈之前就已準備迎戰。甚至民主黨議員也可能反對對農業和此前屢試屢敗的其他項目削減預算。

預算案還撥出了一筆2,
500億美元的資金以完成奧巴馬救助金融市場、穩定銀行體系的工作。這筆資金在國會已經批准的7,000億美元救助資金之外﹐而且金額可能還會增加。預算案明確指出﹐這筆準備資金將用於槓桿收購施壓銀行業帳面的問題資產﹐總計7,500億美元的資產收購。這可能意味著原先救助規模最後會增加一倍。

奧巴馬提議大舉增加教育經費﹐包括將面向高等教育的貝爾獎學金(
Pell Grants)和通貨膨脹相關聯﹐並將這個大眾獎學金轉型為一個自動的權利項目。作為政府更為廣泛擴大基礎設施投資計劃的一部分﹐高速鐵路也將獲得每年10億美元的預算﹐即便奧巴馬7,870億美元刺激計劃已經包括了這方面資金。

國防部2010年預算將增加204億美元﹐較2009年增長4%
﹐雖比不上布什當政時期的增速﹐但可以滿足陸軍和海軍陸戰隊的增兵需要。按照奧巴馬的要求﹐伊拉克和阿富汗戰爭2009年剩下時間的預算為755億美元﹐明年則還需要1,300億美元。原因是奧巴馬雖然打算在19個月內從伊拉克撤軍﹐但計劃將大部分撤出的部隊部署到阿富汗。

作為預算中最具雄心的提議﹐奧巴馬計劃限制溫室氣體排放﹐
強迫污染方購買排放許可。經過這些努力﹐到2020年美國的溫室氣體排放量將比2005年減少14%﹐到2050年將減少83%。排放許可將從2012年開始出售﹐在2019年之前可望收入6,460億美元。政府將從這筆錢中拿出5,257億美元用於奧巴馬簽署的“勞有所得”家庭扺稅計劃﹐每對有工作的夫婦可以享受800美元扺稅額。剩下的1,200億美元則投入到清潔能源技術上。

奧巴馬承認﹐他那6,
300億美元的國家醫療保障計劃無法讓每一個美國人都享受到﹐但他表示這將只是個開始。

為了籌措預算所需資金﹐
奧巴馬明顯已選好了這場博奕中的贏家和輸家--首先就是要拿富人開刀。奧巴馬用帶著怒氣的民粹主義口吻(這是他在選戰中盡力避免的)寫道﹕為了給富人和有後臺的人實施巨額減稅﹐我們犧牲了教育、清潔能源、醫療保障和基礎建設投資。在面對此番景象時﹐華盛頓忽視了中產階級在強壓之下舉步維艱...掙錢並沒有錯﹐但容忍政策傾斜到讓如此少的一部分人一直獨佔好處就不對了。

如此說來﹐這份預算計劃可視為一種報復。正如所料﹐
從2011年開始﹐年收入超過20萬美元的個人和收入超過25萬美元的夫婦要繳納更多稅--在10年內為政府多貢獻6,560億美元。僅提高所得稅率一項就可以增收3,390億美元。對個人免稅和分項扣除進行限制將增收1,800億美元。提高資本利得稅率將增收1,180億美元。原定於明年取消的遺產稅將被保留下來﹐對個人繼承遺產超過350萬美元--夫婦繼承超過700萬美元--將徵收45%的遺產稅。

企業也將受到影響。通過限制跨國企業對海外利潤進行避稅﹐
估計政府可以在未來十年內增加2,100億美元收入。對沖基金和私募基金的經理人將另外貢獻240億美元﹐今後他們的收入將按所得稅率納稅而不是資本利得稅率。石油和天然氣公司受的打擊會特別大﹐他們所享受的多種稅收減免將被取消。

聯邦政府將接手大部分助學貸款。
經營管理式醫療的公司將失去因提供醫保計劃而獲得的補貼。經營收入50萬美元以上的農場主獲得的補貼將逐步取消。聯邦政府將不再為棉花儲備提供資金。

奧巴馬公佈預算計劃時稱﹐有時候你可以負擔得起裝修房屋的費用。
但有時候你需要將注意力放在重建地基上。眼下正是該重視地基的時候。

Jonathan Weisman

Europa Editions Finds Success Translating Literary Novels

Europa Editions Finds Success Translating Literary Novels
Published: February 25, 2009

It does not sound like a recipe for publishing success: a roster of translated literary novels written mainly by Europeans, relying heavily on independent-bookstore sales, without an e-book or vampire in sight.

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Suzanne DeChillo/The New York Times

Kent Carroll is the publisher of Europa Editions.

But that is the formula that has fueled Europa Editions, a small publisher founded by a husband-and-wife team from Italy five years ago. As large New York publishing houses have laid off staff, suffered drastically reduced book sales and struggled to adjust to a digital future, Europa turned its first profit last year and is enjoying a modest but growing following.

The company, which operates out of a pair of tiny offices near Union Square in Manhattan, also has its first best seller with “The Elegance of the Hedgehog,” a French novel by Muriel Barbery narrated by a secretly intellectual concierge in a fashionable Parisian apartment building and a precocious preteen girl who lives there with her wealthy family. Filled with philosophical ruminations and copious references to literature, art, film and music, the book is in many ways as much of a surprise hit as its publisher.

The novel, released in the United States in September, has spent six weeks on the New York Times trade paperback fiction best-seller list, as of last Sunday. According to Nielsen BookScan, which tracks about 70 percent of sales, it has sold 71,000 copies.

That might seem minor, compared with the blockbuster sales of a single title from the “Twilight” series by Stephenie Meyer, but for Europa, it is proof that the company can do more than fulfill an earnest cultural mission.

“We don’t want to be in that small-press translation ghetto,” said Kent Carroll, Europa’s publisher and a veteran of independent publishing who worked at Grove Press for 11 years. He was a co-founder of Carroll & Graf, the publisher, now defunct, that rereleased out-of-print gems and introduced writers like Beryl Bainbridge to American readers. “Our ambitions are large,” he said.

Europa Editions was the brainchild of Sandro Ferri and Sandra Ozzola Ferri, the founders of Edizioni E/O, a Rome-based publisher that releases many works in translation in Italy. “I have a universal, global feeling that everywhere people should read and could read books from different countries,” Mr. Ferri said in a telephone interview. “Even if up to now, only 3 percent of the American books are books in translation, I think that this is not a reason that it should always be like that.”

Emulating many European publishers, the company releases books only in the trade paperback format. It developed a distinctive look for all its titles, with French flaps, a consistent font on the book spines and a logo of a stork that appears with the publisher’s name on the front of each volume.

Europa’s first title, “The Days of Abandonment,” an Italian novel by Elena Ferrante, was published in 2005. The book garnered positive reviews and immediately took off at independent booksellers. Other titles — including “Old Filth” by Jane Gardam, an English writer; “Dog Day,” a mystery by the Spanish writer Alicia Giménez-Bartlett; and “Cooking With Fernet Branca” by James Hamilton-Paterson, an English writer living in Austria — helped earn Europa a loyal following among booksellers and readers. Some books sell only a few thousand copies, but book buyers like the brand identity.

“We have a lot of faith in their editorial sensibility,” said Sarah McNally, owner of the McNally Jackson bookstore in Manhattan.

Mr. Carroll said the company rarely spent more than $10,000 on advances. He is the only full-time staff member in New York, with a part-time freelance assistant and two interns.

“Hedgehog,” a novel that had been a sensation in France and that Edizioni had already translated into Italian, had also proved popular in Germany and South Korea. Mr. Carroll, in turn, was determined to make the novel an American best seller. He blitzed booksellers and reviewers with postcards, galleys, letters and phone calls months before the book was published, reminding them of the novel’s international track record. Sales representatives from Penguin Books USA, which distributed the book, also pushed it heavily.

American booksellers were captivated by the voices of both Renée, the concierge, and Paloma, the girl, and recommended the book to customers. Readers began telling their friends.

“Now everybody’s buying it because everybody’s buying it,” said Mark LaFramboise, a buyer at Politics and Prose in Washington. “Hedgehog,” he said, is “one of the hottest books in the store.”

Some larger publishers are starting to envy Europa’s selection and its frankly retro publishing model. Mr. Carroll “finds things, picks things up for a little bit of money and makes a lot out of them,” said Jonathan Galassi, publisher of Farrar, Straus & Giroux. “Most of publishing was once that way. It wasn’t about big money so much. He’s sort of preserving the old values of it’s-all-about-the-book and connecting the book with readers.”

Soft Is Rough on Forests

Mr. Whipple Left It Out: Soft Is Rough on Forests

Juan Arredondo for The New York Times

Rolls of toilet paper being processed at the Marcal plant in Elmwood Park, N.J.


Published: February 25, 2009

Americans like their toilet tissue soft: exotic confections that are silken, thick and hot-air-fluffed.

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Toilet Paper and Other Moral Choices

Room for DebateApart from the choice of toilet paper, what are the simplest changes that Americans can adopt that would make an environmental difference?

Join the Discussion »
Juan Arredondo for The New York Times

Marcal, the oldest recycled-paper maker in the country, plans a marketing campaign to promote toilet tissue made from recycled paper.

Mike Mergen for The New York Times

Various brands at a supermarket near Philadelphia.

The national obsession with soft paper has driven the growth of brands like Cottonelle Ultra, Quilted Northern Ultra and Charmin Ultra — which in 2008 alone increased its sales by 40 percent in some markets, according to Information Resources, Inc., a marketing research firm.

But fluffiness comes at a price: millions of trees harvested in North America and in Latin American countries, including some percentage of trees from rare old-growth forests in Canada. Although toilet tissue can be made at similar cost from recycled material, it is the fiber taken from standing trees that help give it that plush feel, and most large manufacturers rely on them.

Customers “demand soft and comfortable,” said James Malone, a spokesman for Georgia Pacific, the maker of Quilted Northern. “Recycled fiber cannot do it.”

The country’s soft-tissue habit — call it the Charmin effect — has not escaped the notice of environmentalists, who are increasingly making toilet tissue manufacturers the targets of campaigns. Greenpeace on Monday for the first time issued a national guide for American consumers that rates toilet tissue brands on their environmental soundness. With the recession pushing the price for recycled paper down and Americans showing more willingness to repurpose everything from clothing to tires, environmental groups want more people to switch to recycled toilet tissue.

“No forest of any kind should be used to make toilet paper,” said Dr. Allen Hershkowitz, a senior scientist and waste expert with the Natural Resource Defense Council.

In the United States, which is the largest market worldwide for toilet paper, tissue from 100 percent recycled fibers makes up less than 2 percent of sales for at-home use among conventional and premium brands. Most manufacturers use a combination of trees to make their products. According to RISI, an independent market analysis firm in Bedford, Mass., the pulp from one eucalyptus tree, a commonly used tree, produces as many as 1,000 rolls of toilet tissue. Americans use an average of 23.6 rolls per capita a year.

Other countries are far less picky about toilet tissue. In many European nations, a rough sheet of paper is deemed sufficient. Other countries are also more willing to use toilet tissue made in part or exclusively from recycled paper.

In Europe and Latin America, products with recycled content make up about on average 20 percent of the at-home market, according to experts at the Kimberly Clark Corporation.

Environmental groups say that the percentage is even higher and that they want to nurture similar acceptance here. Through public events and guides to the recycled content of tissue brands, they are hoping that Americans will become as conscious of the environmental effects of their toilet tissue use as they are about light bulbs or other products.

Dr. Hershkowitz is pushing the high-profile groups he consults with, including Major League Baseball, to use only recycled toilet tissue. At the Academy Awards ceremony last Sunday, the gowns were designer originals but the toilet tissue at the Kodak Theater’s restrooms was 100 percent recycled.

Environmentalists are focusing on tissue products for reasons besides the loss of trees. Turning a tree to paper requires more water than turning paper back into fiber, and many brands that use tree pulp use polluting chlorine-based bleach for greater whiteness. In addition, tissue made from recycled paper produces less waste tonnage — almost equaling its weight — that would otherwise go to a landfill.

Still, trees and tree quality remain a contentious issue. Although brands differ, 25 percent to 50 percent of the pulp used to make toilet paper in this country comes from tree farms in South America and the United States. The rest, environmental groups say, comes mostly from old, second-growth forests that serve as important absorbers of carbon dioxide, the main heat-trapping gas linked to global warming. In addition, some of the pulp comes from the last virgin North American forests, which are an irreplaceable habitat for a variety of endangered species, environmental groups say.

Greenpeace, the international conservation organization, contends that Kimberly Clark, the maker of two popular brands, Cottonelle and Scott, has gotten as much as 22 percent of its pulp from producers who cut trees in Canadian boreal forests where some trees are 200 years old.

But Dave Dickson, a spokesman for Kimberly Clark, said that only 14 percent of the wood pulp used by the company came from the boreal forest and that the company contracted only with suppliers who used “certified sustainable forestry practices.”

Lisa Jester, a spokeswoman for Procter & Gamble, the maker of Charmin, points out that the Forest Products Association of Canada says that no more than 0.5 percent of its forest is harvested annually. Still, even the manufacturers concede that the main reason they have not switched to recycled material is that those fibers tend to be shorter than fibers from standing trees. Long fibers can be laid out and fluffed to make softer tissue.

Jerry Baker, vice president of product and technology research for Kimberly Clark, said the company was not philosophically opposed to recycled products and used them for the “away from home” market, which includes restaurants, offices and schools.

But people who buy toilet tissue for their homes — even those who identify themselves as concerned about the environment — are resistant to toilet tissue made from recycled paper.

With a global recession, however, that may be changing. In the past few months, sales of premium toilet paper have plunged 7 percent nationally, said Ali Dibadj, a senior stock analyst with Sanford C. Bernstein & Company, a financial management firm, providing an opening for makers of recycled products.

Marcal, the oldest recycled-paper maker in the country, emerged from bankruptcy under new management last year with a plan to spend $30 million on what is says will be the first national campaign to advertise a toilet tissue’s environmental friendliness. Marcal’s new chief executive, Tim Spring, said the company had seen intense interest in the new product from chains like Walgreens. The company will introduce the new toilet tissue in April, around Earth Day

Mr. Spring said Marcal would be able to price the new tissue below most conventional brands, in part because of the lower cost of recycled material.

“Our idea is that you don’t have to spend extra money to save the Earth,” he said. “And people want to know what happens to the paper they recycle. This will give them closure.”

2009年2月24日 星期二

大東隆行變化多端的在地料理風貌 服務

把餃子變金元寶 年賺台幣200億
記者:溫元樸 外電 報導

每個人都說不景氣,但就是有人荷包賺的滿滿的,到底有什麼秘訣?帶您到日本去看一家鍋貼連鎖店的成功案例,日本有一家餃子店叫做「餃子的王將」,他們利用大量進貨的方式,來壓低成本,還打破連鎖店的慣例,在不同的分店,針對不同屬性的客層,推出不一樣的菜單,短短幾年迅速擴張,現在在全日本擁有523家分店,年營業額逼近台幣200億。

滾燙的鮮肉鍋貼,大火快炒的中華料理,這裡不是橫濱中華街,而是日本知名的鍋貼連鎖店!1人份鍋貼才日幣200圓,使得這家連鎖店總是一位難求,523家分店,在2008年一共賺近台幣192億元。王將食品社長大東隆行:「我們強調的是手工,也許這就是吸引消費者的主因。」

原來業者的秘密就在於,大量進貨、大量生產,全日本4個工 廠,每天洗菜、做絞肉,還得生產130萬張餃子皮,不過接下來的工作,就得由各分店完成;廚師現場切菜包餃子,新鮮口感絕不流失,開放式廚房設計,不但料 理過程可受顧客檢驗,還讓用餐氣氛更輕鬆。消費者:「他們做菜充滿元氣,忍不住盯著看,很有趣。」

王將食品社長大東隆行:「吃飯就是吃一種氣氛,如果店裡感覺很活潑,客人一進門就會覺得,『一定很好吃』,這種氣氛得靠店家自己創造。」

更特別的是,這家鍋貼店打破連鎖餐廳的慣例,不使用同一份菜單,有大紅色、有寶藍色,還有古典字體,因應不同地段的不同客層。鍋貼店店員:「歡迎光臨!」

像這家分店的主顧客以銀髮族居多,配合食量小的老人家,韭菜炒豬干特別推出迷你盤,粉領族、主婦聚集的地區,則是加強餐後甜點的種類,冰淇淋、優格、布丁、芝麻球,應有盡有。消費者:「講到中華料理的甜點,我只想得到杏仁豆腐,有這麼多西式點心真的很棒。」

位在國道旁邊的分店,一到假日就湧入返鄉或出遊的大家庭,為了讓一家人吃得盡興,業者不但推出全家餐,還有兒童餐,大小顧客一網打盡。大東隆行:「本店的強項並非中華料理,而是變化多端的風貌,與在地特色緊密結合。」

在不景氣的時代,動動腦筋拚業績,小小鍋貼也有可能變成金元寶。

2009年2月23日 星期一

Ten American Companies That Won't Cut Jobs

時機歹歹 不砍人頭的公司就是好公司

TECHNOLOGY
First Wave of Cisco Layoffs Begins
Cisco laid off 250 employees, joining other tech giants who have cut staff. The layoffs are the first wave of a planned cut of up to 2,000 employees.


Ten American Companies That Won't Cut Jobs

The Cisco Systems logo is seen in front of the company's headquarters in San Jose, California.
Justin Sullivan/Getty

Layoffs at big companies are so common now that it is novel when a day goes by without Microsoft (MSFT), Caterpillar (CAT), or Macy's (MC) letting thousands of people go. There are a relatively small number of America's largest companies which will almost certainly not have significant layoffs. One of them might close an office in Turkey, another could replace telephone operators with an automated system, but each is in a unique position that makes it highly unlikely for them to want or need to fire employees.


Some of the companies on the list are simply doing so well that they cannot afford to do without all the people that they have. Not only will these companies be unlikely to fire people but some may actually be hiring. The other firms included have large amounts of cash on their balance sheets and have elected to use the slow economy to develop new products and services to take share away from financially weaker competitors. A few of the companies on this list had modest job cuts last year. None of them were significant and are highly unlikely to happen again. ( See pictures of TIME's Wall Street covers.)

Employees at these firms are as close to being "safe" from being thrown into the job market as almost anyone in the country.

Cisco (CSCO) cut 3,000 of its 66,000 people last year. CEO John Chambers has said that the company plans to avoid job cuts. Cisco probably has as much or more cash on hand as any tech company in the U.S., holding $27 billion in available funds. The company is in the midst of a very rapid expansion into the server and data center business. That will require extra personnel and may involve acquisitions. Cisco is in several businesses which are nearly recession-proof and should continue to do well. Its core router operation is critical to building out broadband and systems for popular products like VoIP. The new stimulus package should give that business a bump up. Cisco is also in several sectors like video conferencing which may actually grow as business people cut back on travel.

Visa (V) is lucky. It does not offer consumers credit. It acts as an agent to transfer funds between buyers and merchants. Visa also handles transaction clearing and settlement services. Unlike large banks, when a customer defaults, Visa's balance sheet is not at risk. The company's role as an intermediary makes it an attractive investment. Over the last month the DJIA average was down slightly while Visa shares were up 32%. In the last quarter, Visa's profits rose 35%. Loaning money is a bad business. Handling the transaction between borrower and lender for a fee is a good one.

Apple (AAPL) will not lay people off because Steve Jobs would have to admit he had made a bad decision and that the company would not be appear to be perfect. This is, of course, only part of reason jobs at Apple are safe. The company has $24 billion in cash and securities and adds to that every quarter. Apple refuses to make acquisitions, preferring to create and market its own products. M&A deals often mean personnel cuts. Because Apple's success is based on creating new products, improving old ones and aggressive marketing, it will need all the people who work at the company and perhaps more. Apple is one of the few companies in the U.S. prepared to drive product introductions and spend to pick up market share as the recession deepens. Apple believes that it makes the best consumer electronics and PCs in the world and it is not going to let anything get in the way of expanding those franchises. (Read a TIME cover story on the iPhone.)

Apollo (APOL) is a large education company almost no one has heard of. The firm has a stock market value of $12 billion and had sales of $970 million last quarter. Its operating profit on that was $307 million, so the company has obscene margins. In the last year, Apollo's shares were up almost 30%. While Apollo may not be well-known, it largest division, the University of Phoenix, is well known because it is the largest private university in the country. As people find that they need new skills to find work, Apollo is in a position to take advantage of a drop in the economy and rise in unemployment.

Altria (MO) is doing well because people addicted to cigarettes smoke even during a recession. The company said it expects EPS growth of as much as 6% this year. Altria recently bought another tobacco company,UST and the company has set layoffs because of the acquisition. However, Wall St believes that "sin stocks" tend to dodge downturns well. In the last quarter, the company made $1.1 billion on $4.7 billion in sales. Altria has almost $8 billion in cash and a business which is, compared to most, smokin'.

Google (GOOG) fired a very small number of people last year. If the company wants to control personnel costs, it can simply stop hiring. Google has been adding employees at a dizzying rate for four years. Google, like Apple, has a tremendous interest in keeping its R&D, marketing, product development, and engineering projects going forward as rivals like Microsoft (MSFT) and Yahoo! (YHOO) falter. Google has a chance to pick up market share from both companies and improve its competitive position against Microsoft in the PC application business. It can significantly improve its edge by putting money into initiatives while its rivals are cautious or under-funded. The world's largest search company has $14 billion in cash and no debt. It is adding to that cash base at the rate of about $1.5 billion a quarter.

Colgate (CL) has "side-stepped the global slowdown" as MarketWatch recently wrote. In the most recent quarter the company's profits were up 20%. It would be hard to pick a better time to sell toothpaste, pet food, and shampoo. Even in a bad economy, most of these are products will have stable sales.

Verizon (VZ) is not growing as fast as it was a year ago. Cellular sales are not quite as good due to market saturation and the economy. But, the use of wireless devices for sending items like data and video over wireless networks is improving margins in the company's cellular operations. Verizon has also made a major gamble that it can take home broadband and television services away from the cable companies. It will need to continue to market, service, and build the infrastructure out for that to get a return on its multi-billion capital investment. Verizon removed a very small number of people who serviced its Circuit City locations when the retailer folded. The one business that Verizon has been struggling with is its wireline to the home business — the traditional phone. The company has already cut 2,700 people to keep costs in that operation down. Its plan to market inexpensive home service should help attrition in that part of its business and help to preserve jobs.

Amgen (AMGN) is still growing rapidly unlike most Big Pharma companies. Its biotech business is producing novel medical treatments that have kept Amgen's sales solid while old line drug companies have been shrinking. In the fourth quarter, Amgen spent $770 million on R&D and needs to do so to both further refine and develop new drugs. The firm is not cutting back on the essentials for keeping its product mix strong simply because the economy is weak. Amgen expects to bring in $15 billion in revenue this year, about flat with 2008. Amgen has several products in trials and some show enough promise to help push new product revenue up significantly over the next two or three years. Amgen has almost $10 billion in cash and every reason to push for market share while large drug companies are on the ropes.

Corinthian College (COCO) shares are up well over 100% this year. It is another highly successful company in the education field which should benefit from the need of people out of work to develop new skills. In the most recent quarter, the company's profits rose 86% and it increased its forecast for the current year. The firm's CEO recently said "Although difficult to quantify, current trends indicate that the recession has helped increase marketing leads and student enrollment." It sounds like Corinthian may be hiring. On-line education is definitely in the boom phase of expansion.

See 25 people to blame for the financial crisis.

For constant business updates, go to 24/7wallst.com.

2009年2月22日 星期日

Exploring a ‘Deep Web’

Exploring a ‘Deep Web’ That Google Can’t Grasp

Jeffrey D. Allred for The New York Times

At the University of Utah, Prof. Juliana Freire is working on DeepPeep, an ambitious effort to index every public database online.


Published: February 22, 2009

One day last summer, Google’s search engine trundled quietly past a milestone. It added the one trillionth address to the list of Web pages it knows about. But as impossibly big as that number may seem, it represents only a fraction of the entire Web.

Beyond those trillion pages lies an even vaster Web of hidden data: financial information, shopping catalogs, flight schedules, medical research and all kinds of other material stored in databases that remain largely invisible to search engines.

The challenges that the major search engines face in penetrating this so-called Deep Web go a long way toward explaining why they still can’t provide satisfying answers to questions like “What’s the best fare from New York to London next Thursday?” or “When will the Yankees play the Red Sox this year?” The answers are readily available — if only the search engines knew how to find them.

Now a new breed of technologies is taking shape that will extend the reach of search engines into the Web’s hidden corners. When that happens, it will do more than just improve the quality of search results — it may ultimately reshape the way many companies do business online.

Search engines rely on programs known as crawlers (or spiders) that gather information by following the trails of hyperlinks that tie the Web together. While that approach works well for the pages that make up the surface Web, these programs have a harder time penetrating databases that are set up to respond to typed queries.

“The crawlable Web is the tip of the iceberg,” says Anand Rajaraman, co-founder of Kosmix (www.kosmix.com), a Deep Web search start-up whose investors include Jeffrey P. Bezos, chief executive of Amazon.com. Kosmix has developed software that matches searches with the databases most likely to yield relevant information, then returns an overview of the topic drawn from multiple sources.

“Most search engines try to help you find a needle in a haystack,” Mr. Rajaraman said, “but what we’re trying to do is help you explore the haystack.”

That haystack is infinitely large. With millions of databases connected to the Web, and endless possible permutations of search terms, there is simply no way for any search engine — no matter how powerful — to sift through every possible combination of data on the fly.

To extract meaningful data from the Deep Web, search engines have to analyze users’ search terms and figure out how to broker those queries to particular databases. For example, if a user types in “Rembrandt,” the search engine needs to know which databases are most likely to contain information about fine art (like, say, museum catalogs or auction houses), and what kinds of queries those databases will accept.

That approach may sound straightforward in theory, but in practice the vast variety of database structures and possible search terms poses a thorny computational challenge.

“This is the most interesting data integration problem imaginable,” says Alon Halevy, a former computer science professor at the University of Washington who is now leading a team at Google that is trying to solve the Deep Web conundrum.

Google’s Deep Web search strategy involves sending out a program to analyze the contents of every database it encounters. For example, if the search engine finds a page with a form related to fine art, it starts guessing likely search terms — “Rembrandt,” “Picasso,” “Vermeer” and so on — until one of those terms returns a match. The search engine then analyzes the results and develops a predictive model of what the database contains.

In a similar vein, Prof. Juliana Freire at the University of Utah is working on an ambitious project called DeepPeep (www.deeppeep.org) that eventually aims to crawl and index every database on the public Web. Extracting the contents of so many far-flung data sets requires a sophisticated kind of computational guessing game.

“The naïve way would be to query all the words in the dictionary,” Ms. Freire said. Instead, DeepPeep starts by posing a small number of sample queries, “so we can then use that to build up our understanding of the databases and choose which words to search.”

Based on that analysis, the program then fires off automated search terms in an effort to dislodge as much data as possible. Ms. Freire claims that her approach retrieves better than 90 percent of the content stored in any given database. Ms. Freire’s work has recently attracted overtures from one of the major search engine companies.

As the major search engines start to experiment with incorporating Deep Web content into their search results, they must figure out how to present different kinds of data without overcomplicating their pages. This poses a particular quandary for Google, which has long resisted the temptation to make significant changes to its tried-and-true search results format.

“Google faces a real challenge,” said Chris Sherman, executive editor of the Web site Search Engine Land. “They want to make the experience better, but they have to be supercautious with making changes for fear of alienating their users.”

Beyond the realm of consumer searches, Deep Web technologies may eventually let businesses use data in new ways. For example, a health site could cross-reference data from pharmaceutical companies with the latest findings from medical researchers, or a local news site could extend its coverage by letting users tap into public records stored in government databases.

This level of data integration could eventually point the way toward something like the Semantic Web, the much-promoted — but so far unrealized — vision of a Web of interconnected data. Deep Web technologies hold the promise of achieving similar benefits at a much lower cost, by automating the process of analyzing database structures and cross-referencing the results.

“The huge thing is the ability to connect disparate data sources,” said Mike Bergman, a computer scientist and consultant who is credited with coining the term Deep Web. Mr. Bergman said the long-term impact of Deep Web search had more to do with transforming business than with satisfying the whims of Web surfers.

瓷器投资

经济纵横 | 2009.02.22

经济危机下买瓷器投资保值

两把交叉的佩剑是德国迈森手工瓷器的品牌标志,这一标志代表着手工艺术品和手工传统。明年萨克森州的这家公司将庆祝企业创立300年纪念。迈森瓷器未来的 发展战略是担当奢侈品市场的领头羊。但是经济危机蔓延之下,人人都需要勒紧裤腰带。如果能用简单的咖啡杯,谁又会使用昂贵的手工瓷器咖啡杯呢?迈森想出了 新招,让瓷器也成为一种投资保值方式。

迈森瓷器厂的业务负责人克里斯蒂安·库尔茨克说,想保证销售必须重视宣传推广产品的方式。比如说,一套瓷器咖啡餐具的摆放方式应该不同于以往。

里斯蒂安·库尔茨克说:"比如说,众多陈列柜里摆放的一个花瓶标价61欧元,顾客根本不会考虑到这是手工制成的。现在我们只是改变了陈列摆放这些商品的方式,不需要其它的市场营销策略,销售量就已经上涨了40%。"

当然,光是考虑怎样摆放展示这些瓷器是无法让品牌成为奢侈品市场头牌。另外一个不可缺少的营销策略就是创新意识。例如迈森瓷器也可以应用于建筑领 域。库尔茨克说:"居家厨房、浴室、室内室外,装潢摆设都可以使用到瓷器。日本现在正在修建一座出售奢侈品的商店,我们也正在和他们商谈这个项目,把我们 的迈森瓷器摆放到这家商店,衬托商品名贵的特点。"

迈森瓷器厂成立于1710年。从那个时代人们就已经开始制作瓷器首饰。今年公司准备举办一场独一无二的收藏展。届时许多传统物件都可以在收藏展上看 到。库尔茨克以前是波士顿咨询公司的经理人。他希望公司不只能守住老客户,也应该赢得更多的新客户,开创新市场。现在公司销量的50%都是销往海外。

库尔茨克说:"我们聚焦一定的市场,今年是意大利和中国市场。2010年世界博览会将在上海举办,那时候我们也将庆祝企业成立300周年纪念。"

金融危机对手工瓷器业来说也可以清晰地感觉到。去年第4季度迈森的营业额下降了20个百分点。特别是传统类型的瓷器的销售将不可避免地出现回落。对企业来说,重要的是怎样将今年的销售业绩重新搞好。为了实现这个目标也需要对业务领域进行重新思考。

库尔茨克说:"我们很早就认识到发展的方向。在企业管理方面我们想出新的管理措施,我们和员工们一起商讨计划,集思广益。现在我们正朝着成功的方向迈进。"

另一家传统瓷器生产厂家Rosenthal宣布破产的消息让库尔茨克感到很震惊。但是他马上又表示,同一命运绝不能落在迈森的头上。他 说:"Rosenthal是瓷器行业中的一家企业,但是迈森不是。我们属于生产奢侈品的企业。我们的业务领域完全不同于Rosenthal。"

迈森考虑进军名贵钟表制造领域。他们现在正与德国著名的格拉苏蒂钟表制造厂合作,生产超薄型瓷器钟表表盘。手工匠托马斯·汉斯手绘一个表盘需要差不 多一整天的时间。他说:"我们得反复提醒自己注意精准度,不能有丝毫的放松。眼神要好,另外还得随时自我检查。如果这些算是为企业的成功做出我的一点小贡 献的话,那我会感到很高兴。"

在迈森瓷器厂,所有的员工都在辛勤地工作着。库尔茨克认识每一个员工,叫得出他们的名字,跟他们热情地握手,问候员工的健康状况。也许这只是一种做 秀,但也许也是一种管理策略,正是这样员工们才能在经济危机时期同样保持着乐观的心态。也许迈森当上奢侈品市场领头羊的梦想也会由此而实现。

Isabelle Fabian

2009年2月20日 星期五

Its Muscle Car Glory Faded, Pontiac Shrivels Up

Its Muscle Car Glory Faded, Pontiac Shrivels Up

General Motors

Pontiac models, clockwise from top left: a 1968 GTO, a 1970 Firebird Trans Am, a 2005 GTO and a 2001 Aztek GT. The earlier models had far more fans.i


Published: February 19, 2009

DETROIT — With its history of building muscle cars like the GTO and the low-slung Firebird, Pontiac had good reason to take pride in its best-known marketing slogan from the 1980s, “We Build Excitement.”

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Times Topics: Automotive Industry Crisis | General Motors Corporation

Pontiac "We Build Excitement" ad from 1987 (External link)

Pontiac GTO ad from 1966 "The Tiger Scores Again" (External link)

Pontiac Firebird ad from 1967 "Get A Firebird" (External link)

Micheline Maynard and Jane Bornemeier discuss the Pontiac brand

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The 1967 Pontiac GTO.

Lately it has been using “Pontiac is CAR,” a phrase more likely to catch the attention of grammarians than car buffs.

And on Tuesday, when General Motors asked the federal government for more bailout money, it also announced a reorganization plan that included demoting Pontiac to a “focused niche brand,” signaling that its lineup of vehicles would shrink and that it would no longer be a separate division.

To industry analysts and Pontiac’s longtime fans, the downgrade provides a case study of the product missteps that helped put G.M. in its precarious state, and a reminder of the dangers in straying from a successful formula.

“When you deviate too far from it, that’s when you run into trouble as a brand and a company,” said Jack R. Nerad, executive editorial director at Kelley Blue Book, whose 1968 Firebird made him feel “as cool as I could be.”

More than any other G.M. brand, Pontiac stood for performance, speed and sex appeal. Its crosstown rivals followed with similar muscle cars, giving Detroit bragging rights over the cars that Japanese automakers were selling based on quality and reliability.

Though still G.M.’s third-best-selling division, behind Chevrolet and GMC, Pontiac’s sales peaked in 1984, when it sold almost 850,000 vehicles, roughly four times as many as it sold last year.

G.M.’s chief executive, Rick Wagoner, said the company’s decision to concentrate primarily on Cadillac, Chevrolet, Buick and GMC left the company with a “comprehensive portfolio.”

By many accounts, Pontiac started to falter when G.M. pursued a cost-saving strategy of providing the same cars to different divisions.

It gave Pontiac vehicles like the TransSport minivan, and the Sunbird, Sunfire and Phoenix cars that were barely distinguishable from models sold by Chevrolet and Oldsmobile.

Pontiac also garnered unwanted publicity in 2001 with the Aztek, whose tag line declared, “Quite possibly the most versatile vehicle on the planet.” Its bulky looks landed it on lists of the world’s ugliest cars. Indeed, Aztek won top honors in that category from The Daily Telegraph of London last year.

Pontiac’s current plight is reflected in its Vibe, a well-regarded crossover vehicle that shares underpinnings with the Toyota Matrix, as part of a joint venture between Toyota and G.M.

While the Matrix holds 67 percent of its resale value after three years, according to Kelley Blue Book, the Vibe retains just 54 percent.

The Vibe, whose future is not clear but which was redesigned for 2009, is meant to appeal to the same age group that Pontiac’s muscle cars once did.

But many younger Americans, who were not around for Pontiac’s prime period, will not miss the brand as it shrinks, said Ron Pinelli, who is president of Motorintelligence.com, a company that tracks industry statistics.

To them, he said, “it doesn’t have any cachet unless they’re watching a late-night movie with Burt Reynolds,” whose film “Smokey and the Bandit” featured the Pontiac Trans Am.

But in its best years, Pontiacs were “highly styled and valued and really something,” Mr. Pinelli said.

Known before World War II primarily for its sedate sedans, Pontiac got a lift in the 1950s when G.M. used its cars on the racing circuit. Because of its “wide track” stance, Pontiacs quickly caught on with street racers, as well.

Tim Sampson, whose family owned a yellow Pontiac Grand Prix in the 1960s, remembered the Pontiacs that were used for drag races on President’s Island, in an industrial part of Memphis. “People used to get arrested,” said Mr. Sampson, a founder of the Stax Museum of American Soul.

Italian sports cars inspired another classic Pontiac in the 1960s, when the division’s new general manager, John Z. DeLorean, decided it needed a small, fast car modeled after a Ferrari. He hit on the name GTO — after a Ferrari coupe called the Gran Turismo Omologato.

The GTO returned this decade, as part of an effort to revive Pontiac. But G.M.’s Holden division in Australia built that car.

Its appearance barely echoed the original GTO, disappointing its core audience. It lasted only from 2004 to 2006, before G.M. stopped selling them.

The most recent efforts to breathe new life into Pontiac were put into motion by G.M.’s vice chairman, Robert A. Lutz, who will retire at the end of 2009. Known in the industry for his love of high-performance vehicles, Mr. Lutz had pushed the division to return to its car heritage.

On its Web site, Pontiac explains its new slogan more fully: “Pontiac is style. Pontiac is performance. Pontiac is culture. Pontiac is music. Pontiac is CAR.”

Now, G.M. will have to determine which Pontiacs will remain Pontiacs. So far, Mr. Wagoner and other executives have not given any indication of the company’s specific plans for Pontiac.

But unlike Saturn, which will be discontinued by 2012, G.M. does not have to dismantle a dealership lineup for Pontiac. Its franchises, for the most part, already have been grouped with Buick and GMC. Any future models, G.M. said this week, will be sold through this Buick-Pontiac-GMC organization.

“We’re the third generation, and we’re the last,” said Rick Zimmerman, whose family has sold Pontiacs in Pittsfield, Ill., since the brand came to life as part of its Oakland division in the 1920s. (Pontiac became a stand-alone division in 1932.)

Mr. Zimmerman, whose first car was a GTO, said hundreds of customers used to flood his showroom each fall when new Pontiacs — like the popular Bonneville, now a retired nameplate — were unveiled.

Now, despite positive reviews about the performance of some new models like the G8, he has trouble getting his customers interested in them.

“It’s been a good name, and had a lot of good cars,” Mr. Zimmerman said. “It’s tough to see it go.”

Nick Bunkley contributed reporting.

2009年2月15日 星期日

iNSTANT Starbucks Coffees

經令咖啡搖身一變成為奢侈品的星巴克(Starbucks Corp.)正準備進軍一個新的市場:速溶咖啡。

Associated Press
這家總部位於西雅圖的零售商已開發出一款速溶咖啡﹐計劃從下個月開始在公司旗下的部分店舖進行銷售。這種新產品名叫Starbucks Via﹐是星巴克傳統煮咖啡的袋裝速溶版。和普通的速溶咖啡一樣﹐顧客只要把它倒進熱水或冷水中攪拌一下即可飲用。

星巴克的這一大膽舉動表明﹐它正如何適應迅速變化的咖啡消費環境。速溶咖啡一直以來都讓人聯想到低品質和平淡無奇的口味。

不過星巴克的高管說﹐速溶咖啡市場的規模非常大﹐特別是海外市場﹐他們不能再忽視它了。舉例來講﹐英國的咖啡銷售中有81%是速溶咖啡。隨著星巴克削減了新的店舖擴張﹐它正努力找到新的方法提高現有店舖的銷售額。

星巴克首席執行長舒爾茨(Howard Schultz)在接受採訪時說﹐這是公司歷史上的一個轉型事件。

他說﹐過去幾個月裡﹐他在沒有告知客人的情況下﹐向他們提供速溶咖啡﹐不過並沒有人發覺。

Janet Adamy

2009年2月14日 星期六

Taking the Wheel as Toyota Skids

Taking the Wheel as Toyota Skids

Daniel Acker/Bloomberg News

Imported vehicles sit at the Port of Newark, waiting for their turn to gather dust at dealerships. Toyota Motor is starting to feel the downturn that has hobbled its American counterparts.


Published: February 14, 2009

DETROIT

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Times Topics: Toyota Motor Corporation

Akio Toyoda

Alex Wong/Getty Images

Toyota believes alternative cars, like the Prius hybrid, above, will dominate the roads by 2030.

Kimimasa Mayama/European Pressphoto Agency

Toyota’s leaders, from left: Katsuaki Watanabe, president; Akio Toyoda, future president; and Fujio Cho, past president.

THE Japanese phrase genchi genbutsu translates as “go to the spot” — in other words, “see it for yourself.” Few executives embrace that philosophy as completely as Akio Toyoda, who is slated to become the next president of the Toyota Motor Corporation.

Last summer, during a trip so secret that Toyota’s public relations staff didn’t know he was here, Mr. Toyoda visited a dealership in Ann Arbor, Mich., and decided to satisfy his curiosity about a pickup truck recall.

Still wearing his business suit, he got down on his hands and knees on the warm blacktop to examine the undercarriage of one of the trucks, shocking his American hosts, who didn’t expect a corporate V.I.P. to be so hands-on.

They, and everyone else at Toyota, had better get used to it.

In June, Mr. Toyoda will take charge of a renowned company facing its most serious setback since a crisis in the early 1950s forced his grandfather, Kiichiro Toyoda, to give up control of the carmaker he founded in 1937.

The momentum that allowed Toyota to become the world’s biggest and richest carmaker is screeching to a halt. It’s set to report billion-dollar losses for 2008, a stunning reversal from the record annual profits it earned earlier this decade.

In the United States, its biggest car market, unsold Toyotas are piling up on storage lots while dealers, once used to waiting lists of eager customers, grapple with sales that have plunged by a third.

Inside Toyota, the situation is being referred to as “the emergency,” with top management canceling routine meetings and trips to focus on overcoming a global auto slump. On Thursday, Toyota said worker buyouts, possibly shorter workweeks and executive pay reductions would be part of urgent cost-cutting.

At a news conference last month announcing his appointment, Mr. Toyoda put managers on notice that he will pop up everywhere, just as he did in Ann Arbor. “I have assumed the huge responsibility of steering Toyota at a time when we’re facing a once-in-a-century crisis,” he said. “Given the circumstances, I take my responsibility very seriously.”

All of this is far more challenging than anyone at Toyota anticipated even a year ago. Early this month, Toyota forecast a $3.9 billion net loss for the 2008 fiscal year, which ends in March, the first time it has lost money since 1950. It expects an even deeper operating loss of about $5 billion, its first since it was founded.

The dismal financial news came only days after Toyota confirmed rumors that Mr. Toyoda, after a 25-year apprenticeship, would finally become its next president, replacing Katsuaki Watanabe, who has held the job since 2005, and who will become vice chairman.

The prospect of deep losses and the abrupt announcement that a Toyoda would return to power, after people from outside the family had run the company for 14 years, have jolted the auto giant in the same way that looming bankruptcy has rattled Detroit automakers.

“The financial crisis and the economy are intertwined, and the crisis is expanding significantly faster, wider and deeper than we expected,” Mr. Watanabe wrote in an e-mail message in response to questions.

Even before Mr. Watanabe hands off the top job at the company to Mr. Toyoda, pieces of Toyota’s response to the crisis are being rolled out.

Toyota, which has been on a steep growth curve this decade, has put new plants on hold, including a factory under construction in Blue Springs, Miss., that was supposed to open next year. The company plans to cut spending by 10 percent and is letting many temporary workers go; permanent workers thus far have been protected by a lifetime employment policy.

Toyota is also rethinking its lineup of cars for every region of the world and accelerating offerings of more environmentally friendly vehicles. And it’s already planning for 2030, when it envisions a world in which hybrid vehicles — and other types, like those that run on hydrogen — dominate the roads as traditional internal combustion engines fade in importance.

Toyota doesn’t plan to seek government support, either in Japan or elsewhere, Mr. Watanabe said. That fact alone illustrates the gap between Toyota and its American counterparts.

G.M., Ford and Chrysler are trying to survive,” says John Paul MacDuffie, an associate professor of management at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. “All Toyota is trying to do is survive a downturn.”

To do so, Toyota will rely on someone who has been groomed for this job for much of his adult life.

ALONG with his last name, reminders of Mr. Toyoda’s heritage are ubiquitous in Japan. A bust of his look-alike grandfather sits in front of Toyota’s soaring glass headquarters in Toyota City, about 30 miles outside Nagoya.

The original office building where Toyota was founded is near Nagoya’s bustling train station, while the traditional Japanese home of the company patriarch, Sakichi Toyoda, is on display in Toyoda City.

These days, the Toyoda family — which spelled its companies’ names differently so they would be easier to write in Japanese characters — holds only a small fraction of Toyota stock.

But the family still wields a powerful influence at Toyota. Mr. Toyoda insists that nepotism was not behind his elevation, and he is also quick to point out that he is captive to his family’s legacy.

“I really did not have a choice to be born with the Toyoda surname,” he said on the day he was named as Toyota’s next president.

Even if his last name were different, Mr. Toyoda’s appointment would set him apart, however. At 52, he is still relatively young to become a Japanese chief executive. (Mr. Watanabe, who turned 67 on Friday, was 63 when he was promoted.)

Mr. Toyoda is fluent in English, perfected when he earned his M.B.A. at Babson College in Wellesley, Mass., and during the years he spent in New York, working as an investment banker and management consultant and living around the corner from the Frick Collection.

Unlike other Japanese executives, who rely on interpreters even when they understand a foreign language, Mr. Toyoda is content to operate in English, using it in speeches, interviews and, according to Professor MacDuffie, even at the training programs that Wharton conducts in Japan.

At one recent Wharton session, Mr. Toyoda cracked jokes and eschewed a formal presentation for an off-the-cuff talk. He seemed “very much a part of the younger generation,” Professor MacDuffie said.

Not surprisingly, Toyota’s American executives, who are struggling with their deepest sales decline in a generation, can’t wait for him to take charge.

“Akio is a very, very good leader,” says James Lentz, president of Toyota Motor Sales U.S.A., the company’s sales arm here. “He’s passionate about the company, and passionate about the people at the company.”

Mr. Lentz met Mr. Toyoda in 1995, when he was general manager of Toyota’s San Francisco region, and Mr. Toyoda was a planner and administrator at a plant in Fremont, Calif., that was a joint venture with General Motors.

Late one Friday night, there was a quiet knock on Mr. Lentz’s office door. Not expecting a guest, he opened it to find Mr. Toyoda, who had come from Fremont to pick up a car to use for the weekend.

Mr. Lentz got another surprise when he discovered that Mr. Toyoda was accompanied by his father, Shoichiro, then Toyota’s chairman, who had traveled to America, unannounced, to visit his son.

Drop-ins continue to be part of Mr. Toyoda’s routine. In recent months, he has frequently called on Mark Templin, the general manager of Toyota’s Lexus luxury division, and one of the company’s most prominent American leaders, to discuss the future of Lexus.

In January, Toyota announced that Lexus would develop its first vehicle to be exclusively designed as a hybrid. Mr. Templin hinted that other dedicated hybrids, and perhaps a premium small car like the Mini Cooper, also may be in store for Lexus.

Mr. Templin, who regularly visits Mr. Toyoda in Japan, describes the Toyota headquarters desk of his boss as “full of paper.” Mr. Toyoda’s office is much smaller than those favored by American chief executives, says Mr. Templin, who adds that he has been impressed by Mr. Toyoda’s effort over decades to learn all aspects of the company’s operations.

Along with his assignment at the Fremont joint venture, Mr. Toyoda has run Toyota’s operations in China and Japan and started a Web site aimed at young Japanese consumers called Gazoo.com. The site, originally meant as a way to market Toyota’s used cars, has since morphed into a popular social network.

Mr. Toyoda was named to the company board in 2000, which put him in regular contact with all of Toyota’s senior leaders, and joined their ranks in 2005, when he became an executive vice president. (The ascent hasn’t been without a few glitches. Not long after becoming a board member, Mr. Toyoda lost the gold lapel pin bearing the original Toyota emblem that all directors wear each day. His status as a family member won him no special treatment, he confided last year in an interview: like everyone else, he had to pay for a replacement.)

Mr. Toyoda also acquired a deep interest in his company’s automobiles, spending hours each month for the last decade testing new cars. In 2007, he even drove a four-hour stint as part of a Toyota racing team in Germany.

“The Toyoda family is still kind of golden” in Japan, says Jeffrey K. Liker, an engineering professor at the University of Michigan and the author of a series of books about Toyota. “The president is the face of the company, and this time, it may be important to have the right kind of face.”

ALTHOUGH Mr. Toyoda plans to respect Toyota’s corporate traditions as the company’s new president, he intends to be his own man.

“I also will not be tied to the past,” he said during the news conference. “I will do my utmost to be as bold as possible.”

His first moves are expected to include naming a new management team. One adviser could be Yoshi Inaba, the former head of Toyota’s North American operations.

Also fluent in English, Mr. Inaba played a role in Mr. Toyoda’s tutelage and became a familiar figure with Toyota’s dealers in the United States. Once considered a leading candidate to become president himself, Mr. Inaba left Toyota to become an airport executive after he lost the job to Mr. Watanabe.

Mr. Toyoda also is expected to call on his father for advice, although Shoichiro Toyoda is expected to leave Toyota’s board when his son becomes president. (Inside Toyota, Mr. Toyoda is called Akio-san to distinguish him from his father, now a robust 84, who is known as Dr. Toyoda or merely Dr. T.)

The relationship between the two men has not always been easy. Mr. Toyoda, who is Shoichiro Toyoda’s only son (he has one sister), did not show an interest in joining the company until he was 28, or several years after most new hires.

Mr. Toyoda, whose father was president from 1982 to 1992, said in an interview in Toyota City last year that he had a complex, dual relationship with the man who was both his father and his supervisor at Toyota.

But senior company executives, who asked not to be identified because they were not authorized to speak for the company about board matters, speculated that there were two reasons the father believed the time was right for his son’s promotion: The elder Mr. Toyoda wants to be in good health when his son takes over so he can provide counsel, and he wants his son to manage the company through a downturn, and potentially enjoy the reputational benefits of a rebound.

Akio Toyoda is not expected to turn the company upside down. Toyota is governed by a series of management principles that collectively represent the “Toyota Way” — practices that focus on consensus management, continuous production improvements and in-depth investigations before any strategic shifts occur.

For all of its sophistication as a company, Toyota embarked on its global expansion only about a decade ago. Two successive presidents, Hiroshi Okuda and Fujio Cho, who preceded Mr. Watanabe, set the company on a trajectory that made it the world’s largest auto company, a title it took from G.M. last year.

Mr. Watanabe continued the push during the last few years, opening new plants in Texas and Ontario, and starting construction on the plant in Mississippi.

But critics say Mr. Watanabe misjudged the economic downturn, and shouldn’t have pursued new initiatives like the Mississippi factory. Mr. Watanabe, however, insists the factory, intended to build the hybrid-electric Prius, was not a mistake.

He said by e-mail that Toyota still expected the American market to grow, and that there was “no doubt” that it will recover at some point. “For this reason, Toyota believes its investment in the Mississippi plant is essential,” he said.

Even though it cut Toyota’s debt rating this month, Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services said the company could withstand a one- to two-year sales slump, as long as its cash, believed to be around $55 billion, holds out.

“Toyota boasts a formidable degree of competitiveness among global auto manufacturers,” Osamu Kobayashi, an analyst with the agency, said in a research report. “We view Toyota as being better positioned than other global auto manufacturers to cope.”

During Mr. Watanabe’s tenure, Toyota posted successive years of record profits, including about $18.8 billion in earnings in 2007. At that time, Toyota had a market capitalization of nearly $200 billion; it’s now about half that, but still dwarfs all of the Detroit auto companies combined.

Some of Mr. Watanabe’s other efforts will make it easier for Mr. Toyoda to run things. He revamped quality controls after a spate of recalls and reorganized engineering operations to design cars for a global marketplace rather than simply taking Japanese models and adapting them for buyers overseas.

Mr. Watanabe cites 11 research and development centers around the world, including a new safety facility in Ann Arbor, as important parts of his legacy.

“Toyota’s R.& D. investment is based on expected returns over the medium to long term, rather than from a short-term perspective,” he said. “Technology, including design and product development, is necessary for Toyota’s growth.”

Mr. Watanabe, long an advocate for environmentally friendly vehicles, said Toyota was watching how the world’s governments act on climate change.

“Toyota does expect that policies that promote growth with a balance between economics and the environment, such as the Obama administration’s green initiatives, will be implemented not only in the U.S. but also in other countries around the world,” he said.

AS Mr. Toyoda prepares to become president, one critical change awaits: opening Toyota’s management doors to outsiders.

Despite its rapid growth in the United States and Europe, and an increasingly global viewpoint, Toyota remains a Japan-centric company, dominated by Japanese managers, who have yet to give significant, lasting authority to their foreign counterparts.

Two Americans who rose to high-ranking positions this decade — James E. Press and Gary L. Convis — left for top jobs at other companies, Mr. Press at Chrysler and Mr. Convis at the Dana Holding Corporation, an auto supplier.

Mr. Toyoda, schooled overseas, may push for more diversity, says Professor Liker. He also expects Mr. Toyoda to be a much more visible presence internationally than Mr. Watanabe, who never had a major assignment outside Japan before becoming president and made relatively few trips overseas while in the job.

By contrast, Mr. Toyoda’s learning curve has included trips to Washington. And he has dined with influential lawmakers like Senator John D. Rockefeller IV, a friend of his father and a West Virginia Democrat whose state is home to a Toyota engine plant.

Professor Liker predicts that Mr. Toyoda will be a globe trotter. Beyond that, his ascent signals that his family wants to return to basics as it confronts an uncertain future.

Despite the gloom surrounding the industry, Mr. Toyoda has the opportunity to “take everything that looks bad, and use it as an opportunity to learn,” Professor MacDuffie said.

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