2011年12月16日 星期五

Now the Franco-German question 歐洲前途係於法德關係

Now the Franco-German question

Germany will have to learn leadership, and France followship. Both will find it a wrenching experience. The rules of the European game changed for ever with the reunification of Germany. It has taken the euro crisis to spell out the brutal implications.


One has to feel some sympathy for Angela Merkel. Germany's chancellor has been excoriated in turn for absent and for oppressive leadership. At one moment she is said to be standing idly by while the euro burns, and at the next of issuing teutonic diktats about the terms of its survival. Germany, the rest of us have been reminded, has always been too big for Europe.

人們不得不對德國總理安格拉•默克爾(Angela Merkel)感到些許同情。默克爾因置身事外的態度和強勢的領導作風而備受指責。一分鐘前,人們還指責她在歐元陷入水深火熱之際袖手旁觀,一分鐘後,又指責她為紓困歐元製定日耳曼式的苛刻條款。這些批評聲音不斷提醒著我們,對歐洲而言,德國總是太大了。

The new German question asks whether Europe – whether it is the European Union or a more closely integrated eurozone – can find a new equilibrium now that Germany is so visibly the preponderant power. This in turn marks the return of the Franco-German question. Berlin is assuming the role of leader with a mixture of hesitancy and tetchiness. Paris will struggle mightily to accept the place of follower.


The choreography is calculated to conceal this redistribution of power. The euro crisis has been cast as the Angela and Nicolas show – the German and French leaders smiling for the cameras at the Élysée; a jointly signed missive spelling out a euro rescue plan.

這種安排的宗旨是揭示權力的重新分配。歐元危機已經成為默克爾和法國總統尼古拉•薩科齊(Nicolas Sarkozy)兩人的秀場——兩國領導人在愛麗舍宮面對著鏡頭微笑,共同簽署歐元紓困計劃。

This is called keeping up appearances. For France, the survival of the euro is existential. Never mind the initial, enormous economic shock that would follow its failure. The break-up of monetary union would most likely see France slide into the continent's second division . Europe is the engine room of French power. Without it there would be nothing left of its global pretensions.


Mr Sarkozy, of course, has been fighting his corner – pressing for a Gaullist, intergovernmental arrangement rather than a leap to fiscal federalism. France has been attuned to the danger of Berlin's habit of elevating the avoidance of moral hazard above restoring confidence in financial markets .


In the end, however, Berlin has prevailed. As Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform has observed, the proposals for a stability union presented to the Brussels summit were essentially written in Germany, even if the odd page was edited in Paris.

然而,德國最終佔據了上風。正如歐洲改革中心(Centre for European Reform)的查爾斯•格蘭特(Charles Grant)所言,提交至布魯塞爾峰會的建立“穩定聯盟”的提案基本上是德國編寫的,儘管有幾頁法國進行了校訂。

Assuming (perhaps foolishly) agreement at the summit, the present approach should secure a second chance for the euro: the more so if it provides cover for decisive intervention in the markets by the European Central Bank. But for the very reason it has been written in Germany, the strategy fails to offer a sustainable long-term answer.


The economic argument at the heart of all this never really changes. Instead it returns again and again to the disagreement that surfaced nearly 70 years ago among policymakers at Bretton Woods.

所有這些問題的核心經濟論點從未真正改變過。實際上,它一次又一次地回到近70年前布雷頓森林(Bretton Woods)會議上政策制定者的分歧之上。

In 1944 John Maynard Keynes argued forcefully that the planned new exchange rate regime required symmetrical obligations on creditor and debtor countries to deal with any imbalances. If the system was to endure, austerity on one side had to be balanced by growth on the other.

1944年,約翰•梅納德•凱恩斯(John Maynard Keynes)極力主張,擬議中的新匯率體制需要債權國和債務國對半分擔解決一切失衡問題的責任。這種體制要想持續下去,一方的緊縮必須由另一方的增長來平衡。

Keynes lost the argument then, but governments have been returning to it ever since. During the 1980s it was at the heart of economic discord between the US on one side and Germany and Japan on the other. It runs through today's trade tensions between Washington and Beijing.


The big irony, though, is that this very same debate was present at the creation of the single currency. François Mitterrand's effort at the start of the 1980s to pursue an expansionary economic policy ended in humiliation when Helmut Kohl made fiscal rigour the price of the franc's continued place in the European exchange rate system. France resolved never again.

然而,最為諷刺的是,在單一貨幣體系創立的問題上,也有過一模一樣的辯論。上世紀80年代初,法國前總統弗朗索瓦•密特朗(François Mitterrand)努力推行擴張性的經濟政策,這一努力最終以蒙羞的失敗告終,因為德國前總理赫爾穆特•科爾(Helmut Kohl)要求法國推行緊縮的財政政策,以換取法郎保留在歐洲匯率體系中的位置。法國從此一蹶不振。

The outcome was the “franc fort” policy and a push to share economic decision-making between Germany and France. Once the D-Mark had been subsumed in a single currency, the austerity versus growth argument would finally be settled. That was the theory .


Germany is now within reach of the political integration it sought as a counterpart to monetary union when the euro was established. The danger is an assumption in Berlin that the new structure can be built to an entirely German design.


Ms Merkel's stability union will endure only if it acknowledges that Keynes was more than half-right. Any supranational scheme, whether enshrined in treaty or otherwise, that condemns much of Europe to indefinite austerity will not survive the realities of national politics.


If German leadership is to avoid being oppressive, it must recognise ​​that fiscal union cannot be a one-sided affair. It was encouraging this week to hear Ms Merkel talk about the competitiveness problems in the weaker eurozone economies. It would be more so were she to talk about formulating a strategy for growth.


For its part, France must begin to reimagine the political geography of Europe. The Franco-German relationship will always be a pivotal one, but it is now unequivocally unequal. Paris needs friends beyond Berlin – in Warsaw, Rome and Madrid. If Britain's Tory party were ever to leave behind its European nightmare, there would also be a case to revive the old entente.


Radoslaw Sikorski, Poland's foreign minister, recently told an audience in Berlin that the big threat to Europe came not from German power but from German inactivity. Given the two countries' history, that was a pretty brave thing to say. Few would dispute that the survival of the euro now rests with German leadership. There must be more to that leadership, though, than the promise of austerity.

波蘭外長拉多斯瓦夫•西科爾斯基(Radoslaw Sikorski)最近在柏林發表了這樣的言論:歐洲面臨的一大威脅,不是德國的權力,而是德國的不作為。考慮到兩國的歷史淵源,發表這番言論需要相當的勇氣。歐元的存亡如今有賴於德國的領導,這一點基本毋庸置疑。然而,德國的領導必須帶來更多的東西,而不只是緊縮承諾。