地球，人間煉獄：疫情、戰爭、窮困 (271期)：
台灣不再堅持清零：避免中國式封鎖，重點轉向減少災害nyt
台灣目前允許輕症和無症狀感染者居家隔離，減少了入境旅客和密接人群的隔離天數。官員表示，台灣能夠在公共衛生需求與個人權利及社會健康運轉間取得平衡。
..... 蘇貞昌表示，台灣的開放將是“漸進式的”。即便如此，在一些人看來，政府的動作可能還是太快了。
台灣似乎並未對感染激增做好準備，在藥房和醫院等待核酸及快速抗原檢測的人排起了長龍。政策的轉變對老年人也可能產生風險，台灣老年群體的疫苗接種率低於新加坡和韓國，這兩國都已放鬆限制，但感染病死率並沒有大幅上升。
台灣官員表示，在65歲及以上的人群中，有69%已經打了三針疫苗，比上個月略有上升，但相對於更廣泛人口來說仍然較低。在最近疫情暴發報告的66例死亡中，超過一半都是未完全接種疫苗的老年人。另外，6至11歲兒童的疫苗接種從本月才開始鋪開。超過2000所學校都暫停了面對面課堂教學。
台灣衛生官員表示，在新防疫模式下，他們的工作重點正在從關注總感染人數轉變為“減少災害”的發生。 Lam Yik Fei for The New York Times
台灣政府面臨的另一個挑戰就是說服公眾這種轉變是正確的。在台北，儘管這座城市沒有讓商舖停業，人們依然敬而遠之。曾經熙熙攘攘的餐廳、酒吧和健身房如今明顯門可羅雀。在這個大體上防住了新冠病毒的社群，對疫情暴發的恐懼並不罕見，民眾可能需要一段時間才能接受新的常態。
現年37歲、住在台北附近新北市的人力資源經理陳彥昇說，在上個月感染新冠后，他立刻感到害怕和羞愧，因為他認識的人都沒有感染。但他說，那之後有六位朋友也檢測出陽性，而他們應該都沒什麼大礙。
他曾對島內放鬆管制的做法持謹慎態度，但後來還是改變了想法。
“我覺得和病毒共存是難以避免的，”陳彥昇說。 “我們會不會得到只是遲早的事。”
儘管感染病例飆升，但台灣現在允許輕症和無症狀感染人居家隔離，無需住院。 Lam Yik Fei for The New York Times
Amy Qin是《紐約時報》中國記者，負責報導文化、政治和社會交叉議題。歡迎在Twitter上關注她： @amyyqin 。
Amy Chang Chien在台灣為《紐約時報》報導中國大陸和台灣新聞。歡迎在Twitter上關注她： @amy_changchien 。
翻譯：紐約時報中文網
點擊查看本文英文版。
世界衛生組織周四表示，新的估計顯示，
- WHO週四表示，新的估計顯示，
2020年1月1日至2021年12月31日期間，與新冠大流行 直接或間接相關的死亡人數總計約為1,490萬人。
- 美國FDA在評估了嬌生公司新冠疫苗威脅生命的血栓風險後，限制
了該疫苗的使用。
14.9 million excess deaths associated with the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021
2020 年和 2021 年與 COVID-19 大流行相關的超額死亡人數為 1490 萬
New estimates from the World Health Organization (WHO) show that the full death toll associated directly or indirectly with the COVID-19 pandemic (described as “excess mortality”) between 1 January 2020 and 31 December 2021 was approximately 14.9 million (range 13.3 million to 16.6 million).
“These sobering data not only point to the impact of the pandemic but also to the need for all countries to invest in more resilient health systems that can sustain essential health services during crises, including stronger health information systems,” said Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO Director-General. “WHO is committed to working with all countries to strengthen their health information systems to generate better data for better decisions and better outcomes.”“這些發人深省的數據不僅表明了大流行的影響，而且還表明所有國家都需要投資於更有彈性的衛生系統，以在危機期間維持基本衛生服務，包括更強大的衛生信息系統，”Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus 博士說，世衛組織總幹事。 “世衛組織致力於與所有國家合作，加強其衛生信息系統，以便為更好的決策和更好的結果生成更好的數據。”
Excess mortality is calculated as the difference between the number of deaths that have occurred and the number that would be expected in the absence of the pandemic based on data from earlier years.
Excess mortality includes deaths associated with COVID-19 directly (due to the disease) or indirectly (due to the pandemic’s impact on health systems and society). Deaths linked indirectly to COVID-19 are attributable to other health conditions for which people were unable to access prevention and treatment because health systems were overburdened by the pandemic. The estimated number of excess deaths can be influenced also by deaths averted during the pandemic due to lower risks of certain events, like motor-vehicle accidents or occupational injuries.
Most of the excess deaths (84%) are concentrated in South-East Asia, Europe, and the Americas. Some 68% of excess deaths are concentrated in just 10 countries globally. Middle-income countries account for 81% of the 14.9 million excess deaths (53% in lower-middle-income countries and 28% in upper-middle-income countries) over the 24-month period, with high-income and low-income countries each accounting for 15% and 4%, respectively.
The estimates for a 24-month period (2020 and 2021) include a breakdown of excess mortality by age and sex. They confirm that the global death toll was higher for men than for women (57% male, 43% female) and higher among older adults. The absolute count of the excess deaths is affected by the population size. The number of excess deaths per 100,000 gives a more objective picture of the pandemic than reported COVID-19 mortality data.24 個月期間（2020 年和 2021 年）的估計值包括按年齡和性別劃分的超額死亡率細分。他們證實，全球男性死亡人數高於女性（男性 57%，女性 43%），老年人的死亡率更高。超額死亡的絕對數量受人口規模的影響。與報告的 COVID-19 死亡率數據相比，每 100,000 人中的超額死亡人數更能客觀地反映這一流行病。
“Measurement of excess mortality is an essential component to understand the impact of the pandemic. Shifts in mortality trends provide decision-makers information to guide policies to reduce mortality and effectively prevent future crises. Because of limited investments in data systems in many countries, the true extent of excess mortality often remains hidden,” said Dr Samira Asma, Assistant Director-General for Data, Analytics and Delivery at WHO. “These new estimates use the best available data and have been produced using a robust methodology and a completely transparent approach.”“測量超額死亡率是了解大流行影響的重要組成部分。死亡率趨勢的變化為決策者提供信息，以指導降低死亡率和有效預防未來危機的政策。由於許多國家對數據系統的投資有限，超額死亡率的真實程度往往是隱藏的，”世衛組織負責數據、分析和交付的助理總幹事 Samira Asma 博士說。 “這些新估計使用了最好的可用數據，並且是使用穩健的方法和完全透明的方法生成的。”
“Data is the foundation of our work every day to promote health, keep the world safe, and serve the vulnerable. We know where the data gaps are, and we must collectively intensify our support to countries, so that every country has the capability to track outbreaks in real-time, ensure delivery of essential health services, and safeguard population health,” said Dr Ibrahima Socé Fall, Assistant Director-General for Emergency Response.
The production of these estimates is a result of a global collaboration supported by the work of the Technical Advisory Group for COVID-19 Mortality Assessment and country consultations.
This group, convened jointly by the WHO and the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA), consists of many of the world’s leading experts, who developed an innovative methodology to generate comparable mortality estimates even where data are incomplete or unavailable.
This methodology has been invaluable as many countries still lack capacity for reliable mortality surveillance and therefore do not collect and generate the data needed to calculate excess mortality. Using the publicly available methodology, countries can use their own data to generate or update their own estimates.
“The United Nations system is working together to deliver an authoritative assessment of the global toll of lives lost from the pandemic. This work is an important part of UN DESA’s ongoing collaboration with WHO and other partners to improve global mortality estimates,” said Mr Liu Zhenmin, United Nations Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs.
Mr Stefan Schweinfest, Director of the Statistics Division of UN DESA, added: “Data deficiencies make it difficult to assess the true scope of a crisis, with serious consequences for people’s lives. The pandemic has been a stark reminder of the need for better coordination of data systems within countries and for increased international support for building better systems, including for the registration of deaths and other vital events.”聯合國經社部統計司司長 Stefan Schweinfest 先生補充說：“數據不足使我們難以評估危機的真實範圍，給人們的生活帶來嚴重後果。這場大流行已經清楚地提醒人們
Note for editors:
The methods were developed by the Technical Advisory Group for COVID-19 Mortality Assessment, co-chaired by Professor Debbie Bradshaw and Dr. Kevin McCormack with extensive support from Professor Jon Wakefield at the University of Washington. The methods rely on a statistical model derived using information from countries with adequate data; the model is used to generate estimates for countries with little or no data available. The methods and estimates will continue to be updated as additional data become available and in consultation with countries.
***
Methods for estimating the excess mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic
估計與 COVID-19 大流行相關的超額死亡率的方法
2022 年 3 月 29 日
| 技術文件
Overview
The World Health Organization (WHO) has been tracking the impact of COVID-19 as the pandemic has evolved over time.
While aggregate COVID-19 case and death numbers are being reported to WHO, they do not always provide a complete picture of the health burden attributable to COVID-19. In general, reported death numbers under-estimate the number of lives lost due to the pandemic, there are several reasons for this. They miss those who died without testing, they are contingent on the country correctly defining COVID as the cause-of-death and they miss the increases in other deaths that are related to the pandemic leading to overwhelmed health systems or patients avoiding care. A few countries have experienced lower than expected total deaths during the pandemic due to reduced contact and reduced mobility, which have led to reduced infectious disease related mortality as well as reduced transport and injury related fatalities. Reported COVID-19 death numbers do not account for this.
概述
隨著大流行隨著時間的推移而演變，世界衛生組織 (WHO) 一直在跟踪 COVID-19 的影響。
儘管正在向世衛組織報告 COVID-19 病例和死亡總數，但它們並不總是能全面反映 COVID-19 造成的健康負擔。一般來說，報告的死亡人數低估了因大流行而喪生的人數，這有幾個原因。他們想念那些未經檢測就死亡的人，他們取決於該國是否正確地將 COVID 定義為死因，他們想念與大流行有關的其他死亡人數的增加，導致衛生系統不堪重負或患者逃避護理。由於接觸減少和流動性降低，一些國家在大流行期間的總死亡人數低於預期，這導致與傳染病相關的死亡率以及與交通和傷害相關的死亡人數減少。報告的 COVID-19 死亡人數並未說明這一點。
In light of the challenges posed by using reported data on COVID-19 cases and deaths, excess mortality is considered a more objective and comparable measure that accounts for both the direct and indirect impacts of the pandemic.
This document provides details of the methodology applied to produce the estimates of excess deaths associated with the COVID-19 pandemic for a 24-month period (January 2020 to December 2021) at global, regional and national levels.
鑑於使用報告的 COVID-19 病例和死亡數據所帶來的挑戰，超額死亡率被認為是一種更客觀和可比較的衡量標準，可以解釋大流行的直接和間接影響。
本文件詳細介紹了用於估算全球、區域和國家層面 24 個月期間（2020 年 1 月至 2021 年 12 月）與 COVID-19 大流行相關的超額死亡人數的方法。
***
新的流行病死亡人數
WHO。發現在大流行的前兩年死亡人數比正常時期的預期高出近 1500 萬人。
一個全球專家小組說，大多數人是 Covid-19 本身的受害者，但有些人死亡是因為大流行使心髒病等疾病更難獲得醫療服務。
根據各國的報告，之前的病毒死亡人數為 600 萬。這份新報告令人吃驚地一瞥，許多政府報告的死亡人數嚴重低估了大流行的真實人數。
詳細信息：2021 年，死亡總數比平時增加了 18%——增加了 1000 萬人——因為新的和更具傳染性的變種在那些抵禦了早期疫情的國家中推動了死亡人數的激增。
背景：數據自 1 月份以來就已經準備好，但印度在對方法提出異議後停止了發布。 WHO。據估計，全球近三分之一的超額死亡——470萬——發生在這裡。到 2021 年底，印度政府的死亡人數僅為 481,080 人。
這是大流行的最新更新和地圖。
中國有數百萬人失業。農民工和剛畢業的大學畢業生在該國的封鎖中受到的打擊最為嚴重。
一些歐洲公司被北京的新冠疫情政策嚇到，對在中國進一步投資持謹慎態度。
一種新的子變體正在美國迅速傳播。
世界衛生組織官員說，Covid 是拉丁美洲孕產婦死亡的主要原因。
A new pandemic death count |
The W.H.O. found that nearly 15 million more people died during the first two years of the pandemic than would have been expected during normal times. |
Most were victims of Covid-19 itself, a global panel of experts said, but some died because the pandemic made it more difficult to get medical care for ailments such as heart attacks. |
The previous count of virus deaths, from countries’ reporting, was six million. The new report offers a startling glimpse of how drastically the death counts reported by many governments have understated the true toll of the pandemic. |
Details: In 2021, the total number of deaths was 18 percent more than usual — an extra 10 million people — as new and more contagious variants drove surges in countries that had fended off earlier outbreaks. |
Background: The data had been ready since January, but India stalled their release after disputing the methodology. The W.H.O. estimates that nearly a third of the excess deaths globally — 4.7 million — took place there. India’s government counts just 481,080 excess deaths through the end of 2021. |
Here are the latest updates and maps of the pandemic. |
|
|
沒有留言:
張貼留言