The Square People, Part 1 「廣場人」 托馬斯·弗里德曼

「廣場人」讓「達沃斯人」靠邊站

托馬斯·弗里德曼 2014年05月15日

越南河內——我計劃更經常地從基輔飛到河內。只有當你前往兩個看似沒有聯繫的地方時，你才能看到大勢所趨，而我注意到的一個重大趨勢是「廣場人」的出現。

2004年，哈佛大學政治學者塞繆爾·亨廷頓 (Samuel Huntington)談到了一個新興的全球性「超級階層」：「達沃斯人」，即達沃斯世界經濟論壇(Davos World Economic Forum)的與會者。這是一群跨國別的國際化精英，來自高科技界、金融業、跨國公司、學術圈和非政府組織。亨廷頓認為，達沃斯人「幾乎沒什麼對國家保持 忠誠的需要」，他們彼此間存在着比跟自己的同胞間更多的共同點。他們也有能力從新的市場全球化和信息技術中獲取不成比例的好處。

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  Josh Haner/The New York Times
  托馬斯·弗里德曼

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但十年後，隨着IT革命和全球化蔓延開來，變得普及——當 初只有精英人士才擁有筆記本電腦，現在每個人都有智能手機；當初只有少數幸運兒才能上網，現在人人都上Facebook；當初權力機構里只能聽到富人的聲 音，現在每個人都能在Twitter上反駁他們的領導者——一股新的全球性政治力量正在誕生，而且它比達沃斯人更巨大、更重要。我稱他們為「廣場人」。

大多數廣場人都很年輕，渴望擁有更優質的生活和更多的自 由。無論是尋求改革還是革命（這取決於他們現在的政府），他們都通過在廣場上集結，或者是在虛擬廣場匯合，或者兩者兼而有之的方式與彼此連接在一起。在更 多的情況下，他們是通過一個共同方向，而不是共同的綱領團結起來的；他們希望自己的社會朝那個方向邁進。我們已經在突尼斯、開羅、伊斯坦布爾、新德里、大 馬士革、的黎波里，貝魯特、薩納，德黑蘭、莫斯科、里約熱內盧、特拉維夫和基輔的廣場上看到過他們，也在沙特阿拉伯、中國和越南的虛擬廣場上看到過他們。

後三個國家都有異常多的Facebook、Twitter 或YouTube（或者類似的中國服務）用戶，這些服務共同構成了一個虛擬廣場，廣場人在那裡相互聯絡、推動變革和挑戰權威。人氣最高的的越南博客作者阮 廣立（Nguyen Quang Lap）比該國的任何一家官方報紙的粉絲都多。而在沙特阿拉伯，最流行的Twitter #標籤之一是「＃如果我遇到國王就會告訴他」。

廣場人只會越來越多，他們被賦予的權力只會越來越大。「我 們的目標是，在三年內，每一個越南人都擁有一部智能手機，」越南軍用電子電信公司(Viettel Group)的負責人阮孟洪（Nguyen Manh Hung）告訴我。「我們現在正在製造一款價格不到40美元（約合人民幣250元）的智能手機，我們的目標是把價格降低到35美元。我們收取的電腦上網費 是每月2美元，智能手機通話費是每月2.50美元。」越南對媒體的審查很嚴格，所以越南9000萬人口中有2200萬使用Facebook也不是一個巧 合。而就在兩年前，這個數字還只有800萬。越南目前約有10萬名學生出國留學，十年前這個數字只有現在的十分之一。廣場人的未來蔚為壯觀。

的確，廣場人有着不同的政治主張，他們中也包括埃及的穆斯 林兄弟會(Muslim Brotherhood)和基輔的極端民族主義分子。但他們中的主要趨勢是：「我們現在有了工具，可以看看大家都是怎麼生活的，其中包括國外的機會和國內 腐敗的領導者，我們不會容忍無限期地生活在一個無法充分實現自己潛能的環境中。現在我們還擁有了合作的工具，可以在這方面做一些事情。」

正如一位越南外交政策專家所言，無論採取何種方式，廣場人 都要求和目前主導政界的元老人物「簽訂一份新的社會契約」。「人們希望在每一個重大爭論議題中，自己的聲音都能夠被聽到，」更不用說更好的學校、道路和法 治狀況了。而且他們也毫不猶豫地把自己跟別人作比較：「『為什麼那些泰國人可以去遊行，而我們卻不行呢？』」

烏克蘭的「廣場人」想和歐盟(European Union)拉上關係——這不僅僅是因為他們認為，這麼做是走向繁榮的關鍵，還因為歐洲的規章、司法準則、標準和透明度規定將迫使烏克蘭國內發生「廣場 人」想要求取，但卻無法自上或自下發動的變革。越南的改革者基於同樣的原因，想加入《跨太平洋夥伴關係》(Trans-Pacific Partnership)。和「達沃斯人」不同，「廣場人」想利用全球經濟改造他們的國家，而不是凌駕於其他國家之上。

我在河內國家大學(National University)發表了一個關於全球化的演講。隨後我和19歲的年輕女子英願(Anh Nguyen)聊了聊，她問了幾個好問題。她的表述中夾雜着廣場腔調的話語：「我感覺自己有更多的自主權了……我認為越南能發生改變……請把這裡被揭露的 [國有航運公司]大型貪污案告訴全世界。以前人們會保持沉默，可是判決出來了，他們判處這些人[公司老闆]死刑……這真讓人感到驚訝……現在，不是每個大 老闆都受到政府的保護了……我們從全球獲得了許多不同的信息源。這開闊了我們的眼界。」她還說，和父母相比，她有更大的機會發揮潛力，「不過，這機會沒我 想要的那麼大。」

走開，達沃斯人。廣場人要過來了。

翻譯：土土、張薇

The Square People, Part 1  

By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN May 15, 2014

HANOI, Vietnam — I think I’ll plan to go from Kiev to Hanoi more often. It’s only when you go to two seemingly disconnected places that you see the big trends, and one of the big ones I’ve noticed is the emergence of “The Square People.”

In 2004, the Harvard political scientist Samuel Huntington wrote about an emerging global “superclass” of “Davos Men” — alluding to attendees of the Davos World Economic Forum — a transnational, cosmopolitan elite drawn from high-tech, finance, multinationals, academics and NGOs. The Davos Men had “little need for national loyalty” and more in common with each other than their fellow citizens, Huntington argued. They also had the skills to disproportionately benefit from the new globalization of markets and information technologies.

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  Josh Haner/The New York Times
  Thomas L. Friedman

Well, a decade later, as the I.T. revolution and globalization have been democratized and diffused — as we’ve gone from laptops for elites to smartphones for everyone, from networking for the lucky few at Davos to Facebook for all and from only the rich heard in the halls of power to everyone being able to talk back to their leaders on Twitter — a new global political force is aborning, bigger and more important than Davos Men. I call them The Square People.

They are mostly young, aspiring to a higher standard of living and more liberty, seeking either reform or revolution (depending on their existing government), connected to one another either by massing in squares or through virtual squares or both, and united less by a common program and more by a shared direction they want their societies to go. We’ve seen them now in the squares of Tunis, Cairo, Istanbul, New Delhi, Damascus, Tripoli, Beirut, Sana, Tehran, Moscow, Rio, Tel Aviv and Kiev, as well as in the virtual squares of Saudi Arabia, China and Vietnam.

The latter three countries all have unusually large numbers of Facebook, Twitter or YouTube users, or their Chinese equivalents, which together constitute a virtual square where they connect, promote change and challenge authority. The most popular Vietnamese blogger, Nguyen Quang Lap, has more followers than any government newspaper here. In Saudi Arabia, one of the most popular Twitter hash tags is #If I met the King I would tell him.”

And The Square People are only getting more numerous and empowered. “Our goal is that, in three years, every Vietnamese will own a smartphone,” Nguyen Manh Hung, who leads the Viettel Group, a Vietnamese telecom, told me. “We are now manufacturing a smartphone for less than $40 and our goal is $35. We charge $2 a month for Internet connection for a P.C. and $2.50 for voice from a smartphone.” Because the Vietnamese media is tightly censored, it is no accident that 22 million of Vietnam’s 90 million people are on Facebook. Just two years ago there were only 8 million. Vietnam has about 100,000 students studying abroad; a decade ago it was a tenth of that. All future Square People.

To be sure, The Square People represent a diverse politics, including the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and ultranationalists in Kiev. But the dominant trend running through them all is this: “We now have the tools to see how everyone is living, including opportunities abroad and corrupt leaders at home, and we will not tolerate indefinitely living in a context where we can’t realize our full potential. And also we now have the tools to collaborate to do something about it.”

As a Vietnamese foreign policy expert put it, the Square People one way or another “are demanding a new social contract” with the old guards who’ve dominated politics. “The people want their voice to be heard in every major debate,” not to mention better schools, roads and rule of law. And they are quick to compare with others: “ ‘Why do those Thai get to go demonstrate and we can’t?’ ”

Ukraine’s Square People want to associate with the European Union — not only because they think that’s the key to prosperity, but because they think European rules, judicial norms, standards and transparency requirements will force the changes they want at home but cannot generate from above or below. Vietnamese reformers want to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership for the same reasons. Unlike Davos Men, The Square People want to use the global economy to reform their countries, not rise above them.

I gave a talk on globalization at the National University in Hanoi. Afterward I chatted with a young woman, Anh Nguyen, 19, a student who had asked several good questions. Her conversation was peppered with Square talk: “I feel empowered. ... I think Vietnam can change. ... Please tell the world about the big embezzlement case [at a state-owned shipping company] that was uncovered here. Before people would have been silent, but the verdict came out and they sentenced the [bosses] to death. ... It really surprised people. ... Now not every big boss is protected by the government. ... We get many different sources of information from the world. It opens eyes.” She has a much greater chance to achieve her potential than her parents, she added, “but not as much as I want.”

Move over Davos Man, the Square People are coming.