The Makers of iPhones and Laptops Are Prepping for a Trade War
By- Pegatron and Inventec among those devising contingency plans
- Europe, Mexico and Southeast Asia are among the options
From iPhones to computers, the manufacturing powerhouses behind much of the world’s electronics are preparing to move chunks of production away from China and toward such locales as Eastern Europe, Mexico and Southeast Asia.
Foxconn Technology Group Chairman Terry Gou -- who became a billionaire by dint of making Apple Inc.’s gizmos -- started the ball rolling when he opened a $10 billion display plant in the heart of America, a move that now seems prescient. As tensions between the world’s two largest economies escalate, a growing cohort of his Taiwanese peers have drawn up plans to shift production abroad or devising contingencies for costly new facilities.
Terry Gou
Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg
Taiwan’s largest corporations form a crucial link in the global tech supply chain, assembling devices from sprawling Chinese production bases that the likes of HP Inc. and Dell then slap their labels on. In the past week, corporate leaders, including the chief executives of Pegatron Corp. and Inventec Corp., declared on earnings calls they’ve come up with ways to mitigate the impact of a trade war. While Donald Trump hasn’t zeroed in on consumer electronics, the fear is they’ll be included among the next $200 billion of Chinese-made goods -- wiping out already razor-thin margins in the process.
“We have kicked off a mechanism to reduce our current risks stemming from trade disputes,” said Liao Syh-Jang, chief executive of iPhone maker Pegatron. In the short run, it may add capacity in the Czech Republic, Mexico and at home. Longer term, the company may set up shop in India or Southeast Asia, Chief Financial Officer Charles Lin added.
| Eyeing expansion in: | |
| Compal | Mexico, Poland, Taiwan, Vietnam |
| Foxconn | New panel plant in U.S. |
| Inventec | Czech Republic, Mexico, Taiwan |
| Quanta | Germany, U.S. |
| Pegatron | Czech Republic, Mexico, SE Asia, Taiwan |
Taiwan’s six largest contract electronics makers -- Compal Electronics Inc., Foxconn flagship Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., Inventec, Pegatron, Quanta Computer Inc., and Wistron Corp. -- raked in NT$9.11 trillion ($296 billion) of revenue in 2017, or roughly the gross domestic product of Pakistan. While government data shows Taiwanese companies’ investments in China peaked in 2010, they remain a formidable presence: 15 of the top 20 exporters from the Asian country to the U.S. in 2016 originated in Taiwan, according to a state-run customs data website. Every one of those 15 were subsidiaries of the six contract manufacturers.
Their impending moves echo a trend that’s quickened in recent years. Rising labor costs led many to consider alternatives, including setting up smaller-scale facilities elsewhere to get closer to regional markets. Now those beach-heads serve as expansion bases.
“It will be important for Taiwanese companies to diversify their production as trade disputes between U.S. and China are not going away soon,” said Wu Chung-shu, president of Taipei’s Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research.
Others preparing to take the leap include Inventec, an important Apple supplier, as well as Quanta and Compal. The latter two, which make laptops for most of the world’s major brands, said they can add capacity in existing non-Chinese facilities when necessary.
Compal Vice Chairman Ray Chen said assembling notebooks outside of China could cost at least 3 percent more per unit. But the alternative is unsavory: its gross margin stood at slightly above 3 percent last quarter, wafer-thin profitability that tariffs could wipe out. It’s an industrywide phenomenon: rival Quanta’s was about 4.5 percent.
Alternative Destinations
Taiwanese foreign direct investment ($1,000)
Source: Taiwan Ministry of Economic Affairs
“We are making dynamic adjustments so even if new tariffs on the $200 billion Chinese exports hit, we will be able to minimize damage,” Inventec executive David Ho told analysts on Tuesday. Ho oversees the unit that makes AirPods and HomePods as well as smart speakers for Sonos Inc.
To be sure, many contingency plans haven’t been finalized, and executives are wary about committing given the challenges in moving production permanently, both logistical and political. Many Taiwanese firms are reluctant to provoke China, which for the most part has been a welcoming host to corporations from an island it considers part of the country. And there’re few signs for now of a full-scale exodus. Inventec for one is adding at least one new facility in China that’ll begin production next year, Ho said.
But Trump’s sabre-rattling is definitely getting them thinking. Quanta Chairman Barry Lam said his company can boost manufacturing in California and Tennessee or Germany. Compal’s Chen said the same for Mexico, Poland, Taiwan or Vietnam.
“Amid the tariff rhetoric, moving investment south is a solution that makes sense for companies as Chinese incentives gradually fall, the Taiwanese government promotes its southbound investment policy and Chinese labor costs get increasingly higher,” said Angela Hsieh, regional economist for Barclays Bank in Singapore.
— With assistance by Samson Ellis, Argin Chang, and James Mayger
*****
這篇8.17 很不嚴密、具體；作文章而已。
台灣科技大廠的真正變通辦法，讓我們睜開眼，好好看看。
製鞋業在近25年前就完成全亞洲生產佈局大要。
【即時頭條】貿易戰影響 台灣科技大廠計劃撤出中國
包括鴻海、仁寶、英業達等全世界許多電子產品幕後的製造大廠，現在正準備將生產版圖移出中國，轉向東歐、墨西哥與東南亞等地區。
報導指出，藉著生產蘋果公司零件而成為億萬富豪的鴻海集團總裁郭台銘先前拔得頭籌，在美國心臟地帶的威斯康辛州投資100億美元開設面板廠，這一步頗有先見之明。
隨著美國與中國這世界兩大經濟體之間緊張升高，越來越多台灣大廠加入行列，研擬計畫將生產線轉移至海外，或者為了新的昂貴設備備妥應急計畫。
台灣最大的幾家企業是全球科技產品供應鏈當中一道重要環節，產品於遍佈中國各地的生產線上組裝，之後印上諸如惠普（HP）、戴爾（Dell）等品牌標籤。
過去一週，包括和碩、英業達執行長等企業領導人在法人說明會上宣告，已經找到減緩貿易戰衝擊的方法。雖然美國總統川普尚未鎖定消費性電子產品，但有人憂心這將列在下一波課徵關稅的2000億美元中國製產品。
iPhone製造商和碩執行長廖賜政表示：「我們已經啟動因應機制，希望減少貿易糾紛的風險。」和碩財務長林秋炭補充，短期內和碩打算增加捷克、墨西哥與台灣廠的產能；長期而言，可能在印度、東南亞設廠。
台灣6大代工廠包括仁寶、鴻海、英業達、和碩、廣達與緯創，去年營收總計達新台幣9.11兆元，大約等同於巴基斯坦的國內生產毛額（GDP）。
雖然政府數據顯示，台商在中國的投資於2010年達到高峰，但這幾家代工大廠仍然具有舉足輕重的地位，根據國營海關數據網站統計，2016年從亞洲對美出口前20大企業中，有15家來自台灣，全部都是6大代工廠的子公司。
中華經濟研究院院長吳中書說：「由於美國與中國之間的貿易糾紛不會很快消失，台灣企業在生產上的多元化將會很重要。」
其他企業除了蘋果重要供應商英業達，還有為世界多數筆電大廠牌代工的廣達與仁寶，也都準備採取行動。後兩者表示，必要時候可以提高非中國廠的產能。撰文/Samson Ellis, Argin Chang, and James Mayger
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