萬國郵政聯盟加快評估郵費，最早明年4月調整 |
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比較美國 vs 台灣的報導與分析："白宮開始啓動退出萬國郵政聯盟Universal Postal Union (UPU),的程序"：
台灣的財經專家的是也相對狹小，只是金錢 (“terminal dues” )算計：如果只考量中國電商，美國也有大咖：Amazon：換句話說，它們將來也該是談判主體，事實上，Amazon 可能是更大型的美國私人郵政系統。
The main issue for the Trump administration is something called “terminal dues,” which are the rates and fees set by the UPU that the country responsible for mailing a letter or package pays to the country that receives the letter or package.謝金河川普精準的算計川普總統以公平貿易為由，掀起了中美貿易戰， 這種以「公平」出發的經濟行動已擴及各個領域，包括中國國家補貼造成的不公平競爭，最近又盯住郵件費率的問題，商人出身的總統，注意到這種一般領導人都不會去理會的「小事」，真是令人嘆服。川普要求美國郵政費率要更公平，白宮開始啓動退出萬國郵政聯盟的程序，要求這個組織與美國重新談判公平費率，這個乍看很小的事，結果在美國得到熱烈迴響與支持。事情的緣由是這樣，19世紀中，全球郵務沒有統一的標準，收費高昂又混亂，於是美國提出統一郵政的組織，萬國郵政聯盟在1874年成立。由於發達國家與開發中國家在經濟發展上有很大的差距，1969年起萬國郵政聯盟決定，歐美發達國家必須承擔2公斤以下郵件的郵費，變相補貼開發中國家，讓開發中國家享有 很大的郵費折扣，到今天為止，中國仍享受這個優惠。這 個現象過去不成問題，但阿里巴巴，淘寶，京東崛起，美國跨境電商席捲全球，單是去年一年，中國寄送到美國的郵件就超過800億美元，這些從中國大陸寄送到美國的郵件占美國總量的六成，美國一年要補貼數億美元，這屈屈幾億美元只是小錢，但川普覺得不合理，也要力爭到底。例如，一磅重的郵件，美國收費10到13美元，中國的郵件只要2.5美元，4磅重的郵件，美國是20到25美元，中國只要5美元。
優惠的郵費政策，竟成跨國企業傾銷產品獲利的手段，川普也發現這是另一個不公平，要求重新檢討新費率。過去川普的政策支持和反對都有，這次在郵件費率機制，川普得到壓倒性的全面支持。這個政策若過，勢必衝擊中國跨境電商，阿里，京東最近的大跌與此有關。另一個角度看，川普對商業利益的細節之講究，也到了令人嘆服的地歩！優惠的郵費政策，竟成跨國企業傾銷產品獲利的手段，川普也發現這是另一個不公平，要求重新檢討新費率。過去川普的政策支持和反對都有，這次在郵件費率機制，川普得到壓倒性的全面支持。這個政策若過，勢必衝擊中國跨境電商，阿里，京東最近的大跌與此有關。另一個角度看，川普對商業利益的細節之講究，也到了令人嘆服的地歩！優惠的郵費政策，竟成跨國企業傾銷產品獲利的手段，川普也發現這是另一個不公平，要求重新檢討新費率。過去川普的政策支持和反對都有，這次在郵件費率機制，川普得到壓倒性的全面支持。這個政策若過，勢必衝擊中國跨境電商，阿里，京東最近的大跌與此有關。另一個角度看，川普對商業利益的細節之講究，也到了令人嘆服的地歩！
美國專家的分析，視野比較廣，因為"萬國郵政聯盟"的主旨是促進各國盡量"貨暢其流"，而步是將郵費當關稅般對待；而且，"萬國郵政聯盟"歷史悠久，又是"萬國"間的互動，原則上可減少"以單一國家和萬國單獨談判"的交易成本......
That’s sort of by design. The organization has made a point to try to negotiate policies out of the public view, even if it means developing a reputation as a kind of secretive Postal Illuminati. “That’s why it’s so effective,” John told me. “It keeps itself out of politics.”
光明會（拉丁語：Illuminati），又譯為光照派，是1776年5月1日啟蒙運動時成立於巴伐利亞的一個秘密組織[1]。他們經常被指控合謀控制世界事務，透過策劃事件（如法國大革命、滑鐵盧戰役和美國總統甘迺迪遇刺案），並安插政府和企業中的代理人，以獲得政治權力和影響力，最終建立一個「新世界秩序」
2 days ago - The Trump administration announced Wednesday that the US will withdraw from theUniversal Postal Union (UPU), the organization that ...
...The main issue for the Trump administration is something called “terminal dues,” which are the rates and fees set by the UPU that the country responsible for mailing a letter or package pays to the country that receives the letter or package.
For example, if you’re living in the US and you order knockoff earbuds online from China, China’s postal operator is supposed to pay the US’s operator for the cost of processing that parcel and the cost of having someone (like a US postal worker) transport it to its final destination (like your apartment).
But the rates China and some other countries are paying don’t meet the actual costs of delivering those earbuds. This happens because the UPU gives discounts to a list of developing countries that was negotiated in the 1960s, and China is still on the list.
That means the United States is effectively subsidizing cheap overseas shipping, specifically anything that’s 4.4 pounds or lighter. The administration has said that these rates for Chinacost the US $300 million per year, coming out to a 40 to 70 percent discount on shipping.
So the Trump administration wants to set its own rates based on what it thinks China should pay, which would go into effect no later than the end of 2019.
Manufacturers and retailers small and large have been irritated by this system for a while, and shipping companies and the USPS cheered the administration’s announcement that it would set higher rates. “The current system has led to the United States subsidizing the imports of small packages from other countries. As such, the Postal Service and its Governors fully support the Administration’s decision to move to self-declared rates,” Jeff Adams, a spokesman for the United States Postal Service, said in a statement.
But the US also said it would withdraw from the UPU unless an agreement could be negotiated. It was essentially an ultimatum, Campbell said: “We want you to fix the UPU, and if we don’t make progress in a year, we’re going to get out.”
The administration isn’t wrong to put a little pressure on the organization, Campbell continued. But the one-year withdrawal timeline that the administration set is premature because the UPU is a big, bureaucratic organization with a lot of rules. “They can’t really change it before 2020,” Campbell said.
What does all this mean, though?
Trump has displayed a particular distaste for anything that implies international cooperation: The Trans-Pacific Partnership, the Iran deal, the Paris Climate Accords, and UNESCO are just a few multilateral agreements that he’s backed out of.
But the US’s problem here isn’t really with the UPU. It’s with China. “It’s a pretty straightforward protectionist gambit,” John said.
The Trump administration, vowing to make its own rates for parcels coming into the United States, is effectively setting up another barrier to trade with China. The US has imposed billions in tariffs on a slew of Chinese goods in recent months, and it’s now trying to co-opt an international organization to escalate its trade war.
The problem is that the whole point of the UPU is to make it easier and cheaper for companies to ship and send stuff worldwide. “To use the postal system in lieu of tariffs, that’s not what this organization is about,” Murphy said. “This organization is about sending more stuff [from] place to place, not sending less stuff.”
Now the Trump administration has said it intends to withdraw and set its own rates. But what’s to stop other countries, including China, from retaliating and trying to do the same?
China probably won’t do that, though, because the US just handed them an even greater win: ceding more leadership and clout to Beijing on the world stage. China now gets to be seen as the good global actor, stepping in as the US retreats from the international order it helped create.
“China has been calling for and upholding multilateralism and actively supporting the UPU,” China’s foreign ministry spokesperson Lu Kang responded to the US’s announcement. “We will continue working with all sides to make our contribution to the development of the global postal service.”
Campbell, the UPU expert, said that he thinks the US should use a little muscle here — but that it basically botched the rollout. “Finally the Trump guys have done something — and that’s great,” Campbell told me. “But we have to follow through with a little more planning than we’ve done so far.”
The US has a legitimate case against the UPU. It’s not all that transparent about its pricing, but it is clear that China is getting a big discount. And the US has a bunch of allies in places like Europe who are also drowning in cheap foreign imports that could add to the pressure to UPU reform. A unilateral move by the US undermines that effort.
But there are a lot of practical problems attached to the US’s threat to withdraw from the UPU. Experts told me they don’t really see a way for the US to truly, fully disengage. At the most basic level, the US is a huge part of the international postal system and the global trade and communication that it fosters. Billions of dollars are at stake, and being outside of that system would create huge transaction costs for the US and anyone who does business with us.
“It’s too important for it to really fall apart,” Murphy said.
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