2019年5月10日 星期五
Brinkmanship (also brinksmanship)
For anyone who has negotiated with either Donald Trump or the Chinese Communist party, the collapse of trade talks thanks to last-minute brinkmanship is no surprise, writes FT Asia Editor Jamil Anderlini.
brinkmanship
(brĭngk'mən-shĭp')
also brinks·man·ship (brĭngks'-)n.brink·man·ship (brĭngk'mən-shĭp') also brinks·man·ship (brĭngks'-)brinkmanship. 釋義. N.
( 名詞noun ).p 不入虎穴焉得虎子之策略 ；遊走於危險邊緣政策；開戰前先推進 n. - 霹靂進擊政策【事】 (把危急局勢推到極限的)
The practice, especially in international politics, of seeking advantage by creating the impression that one is willing and able to push a highly dangerous situation to the limit rather than concede.
The policy of a nation that pushes a dangerous situation to the limits of safety (the “brink”) before pulling back; an aggressive and adventurous foreign policy.[名][U]瀬戸ぎわ政策. 一不做二不休 給你死.
That word brinkmanship was modeled on the "gamesmanship" of Stephen Potter's 1947 book, The Theory and Practice of Gamesmanship or the Art of Winning Games Without Really Cheating. The sporting and humorous connotations of the suffix -manship applied to such a serious subject imply that the practitioner of brinkmanship is playing with catastrophe. Though the cold war is over, high-risk politics are not, and brinkmanship remains a vivid word to describe them.
本活動的緣起:一九六二年，發生古巴飛彈危機時，
Origin: 1956
How do you fight a war without going to war? After ten years of Cold War (1946) with the Soviet Union, that was a paradox we were still trying to resolve. But President Eisenhower's secretary of state, John Foster Dulles, had no doubts about it. "The ability to get to the verge without getting into the war is the necessary art," Dulles said in an interview early in 1956. "If you cannot master it, you inevitably get into war. If you try to run away from it, if you are scared to go to the brink, you are lost."
There was good reason to be scared. Both the United States and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics were armed and dangerous. The United States had tested its first hydrogen bomb in 1952, the U.S.S.R. in 1953. Both sides had long-range aircraft to deliver the bombs. Neither side was deterred by the fear of "nuclear winter" (1983), an idea whose time would not come for thirty more years. In classrooms, the best we could do for our schoolchildren was to hold "duck and cover" drills so they could practice shielding themselves from the flash and blast of a distant atomic bomb.
Not every American favored going to the brink. Former governor Adlai Stevenson of Illinois, twice nominated as the Democratic candidate to run against Eisenhower, criticized Dulles in a speech in February 1956: "No, we hear the Secretary of State boasting of his brinkmanship--the art of bringing us to the edge of the nuclear abyss."
That word brinkmanship was modeled on the "gamesmanship" of Stephen Potter's 1947 book, The Theory and Practice of Gamesmanship or the Art of Winning Games Without Really Cheating. The sporting and humorous connotations of the suffix -manship applied to such a serious subject imply that the practitioner of brinkmanship is playing with catastrophe. Though the cold war is over, high-risk politics are not, and brinkmanship remains a vivid word to describe them.
Français (French)
art d'aller jusqu'aux limites du possible art of going until the limits of the possible one
Another way to make threats credible is to employ the adventuresome strategy of brinkmanship—deliberately creating a risk that if other players fail to act as one would like them to, the outcome will be bad for everyone. Introduced by Thomas Schelling in The Strategy of Conflict, brinkmanship "is the tactic of deliberately letting the situation get somewhat out of hand, just because its being out of hand may be intolerable to the other party and force his accommodation." When mass demonstrators confronted totalitarian governments in Eastern Europe and China, both sides were engaging in just such a strategy. Sometimes one side backs down and concedes defeat; other times, tragedy results when they fall over the brink together 边缘政策配合使用
Brinkmanship (also brinksmanship) is the practice of trying to achieve an advantageous outcome by pushing dangerous events to the brink of active conflict. It occurs in international politics, foreign policy, labor relations, and (in contemporary settings) military strategy involving the threat of nuclear weapons, and high-stakes litigation.
This maneuver of pushing a situation with the opponent to the brink succeeds by forcing the opponent to back down and make concessions. This might be achieved through diplomatic maneuvers by creating the impression that one is willing to use extreme methods rather than concede. During the Cold War, the threat of nuclear force was often used as such an escalating measure.
Contents
Origins[edit]
Brinkmanship is the ostensible escalation of threats to achieve one's aims. The word was probably coined by Adlai Stevenson in his criticism of the philosophy described as "going to the brink" in an interview with Secretary of State John Foster Dulles under the Eisenhower administration, during the Cold War.[1] In an article written in Life Magazine, John Foster Dulles then defined his policy of brinkmanship as "The ability to get to the verge without getting into the war is the necessary art." [2][3] During the Cold War, this was used as a policy by the United States to coerce the Soviet Union into backing down militarily. Eventually, the threats involved might become so huge as to be unmanageable at which point both sides are likely to back down. This was the case during the Cold War; the escalation of threats of nuclear war, if carried out, are likely to lead to mutually assured destruction.[4]
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