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| 英國奢華名鞋John Lobb「流動門市」本週抵達台中。將陸續轉駐台南與高雄。圖為John Lobb手工訂製鞋，23萬1千元。 |
記者方惠宗／台北報導
英國皇室御用鞋匠品牌John Lobb繼在台北精品百貨Bellavita開設全台首家門市後，再以「流動門市」巡迴全台各城，包括台中、台南、高雄等。品牌訂製鞋總監Michel Raballand先生亦自巴黎抵台，為顧客現場示範手工訂製鞋製作過程。
John Lobb經理李穎琳表示，「流動門市」是一個突破固定銷售據點的模式，讓各地顧客都能親身體驗百年製鞋技術。她表示：「John Lobb流動門市曾經在全球各個不同城市的酒店、古典建築物或購物中心等舉行。這是首度在台舉辦。」本週來到台中廣三SOGO，4月份起，則轉駐台南與高 雄。各站檔期大約5天。
John Lobb第一家店正式成立於1866年，1976年納入Hermes集團。無論是在法國巴黎訂製的鞋款，或是在英國生產的男仕成鞋，都經過190道步驟與 300項工法的精密製作，質料、手工，極為講究。店上男仕成鞋價格大約4萬元起，量腳訂製皮鞋則是20萬起跳。
A small and little-known city in eastern China's Fujian province makes three claims to fame: it boasts the country's earliest seafaring vessels, a large Islamic temple – and an odd cluster of sneaker companies.
At least 10 firms in Quanzhou city make athletic shoes, and four have listed on overseas stock markets. Known collectively as the “Fujian Tigers”, these brands started out stitching together shoes for the likes of Nike and Adidas, then found success under their own names by selling into lower-tier cities.
Their sudden emergence sets a crucial piece of received wisdom on its ear: it is no longer true that reliable retail sales of branded products can be generated only in China's top cities.
Foremost among the Fujian Tigers is Peak Sport Products, a family-run company that now ranks among China's best-known sportswear brands. The company listed in Hong Kong in September 2009 and now has a market capitalisation of US$1.4 bn on the back of regular annual revenue increases of 60 per cent or more. Peak's turnover is likely to exceed US$500m sometime in 2011.
Such eye-popping growth comes at a time when most leading foreign brands are struggling, and Adidas is suffering double-digit declines. Peak's story underscores both the growing importance of China's consumer class and the emergence of competitive domestic brands.
The key to understanding Peak's rise to a sneaker powerhouse can be found by looking where its shoes are not available. Visitors to China's biggest cities – Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou – will likely search in vain for a Peak outlet.
Peak is instead expanding fast into second-tier cities and below, all the way down to county towns – markets where the China's biggest athletic shoe sellers, Nike and Adidas, fear to tread.
Like a guerrilla strategist, Peak has abandoned China's large cities to its powerful foreign competitors and instead occupies territory exclusively in the hinterland, where incomes have crossed a critical threshold. People in these once-impoverished places can now pay for holidays, home-video systems and branded shoes – and they want them.
Peak now has more than 6,000 retail outlets and is opening another three every day. Nike and Adidas, by comparison, each have about 3,500 stores in China.
Peak's goal is to gain first-mover advantage by opening the maiden athletic-footwear store in major shopping districts across China. Most homegrown brands share this strategy and are growing at a similar clip.
Peak's most mature local competitors are Li Ning and Anta. There is also growing competition from Dongxiang, which owns the China licence to the Italian sportswear line, Kappa. Based on phenomenal growth, its market capitalisation is higher than Li Ning's even though Li Ning boasts higher margins and twice the market share.
Most observers think the lower-tier markets will be saturated within five years. Such congestion will lead to a shakeout, with the strongest and best-organised companies winning. By then, Peak and friends are betting they will be read
福建省有座鲜为人知的小城市因拥有三件事物而闻名：中国最古老的海船、一座大型清真寺——以及一批奇特的运动鞋企业。
泉州市至少有10家企业生产运动鞋，其中4家已在海外上市。它们从为耐克(Nike)和阿迪达斯(Adidas)等品牌代工起步，继而在二、三线城市销售自有品牌的运动鞋并获得成功——它们被统称为“福建虎”(Fujian Tigers)。
它们的突然崛起，打破了一条公认的重要原则：在中国，品牌商品只有在一线城市才有可靠销路。这条原则现已不再适用。
“福建虎”中首屈一指的一家企业是匹克体育用品有限公司(Peak Sport Products)，这家家族企业如今已跻身中国最知名运动鞋品牌之列。该公司去年9月在香港上市，目前市值为14亿美元，每年经常性收入增幅在60%或 以上，销售额有望在2011年的某个时候突破5亿美元。
在该公司取得如此惊人增长的时候，主要外国品牌却大多都处境艰难，其中阿迪达斯的销售额出现两位数下降。匹克的故事突显出两点，一是中国消费者阶层的重要性日益上升，二是一批有竞争力的国内品牌已崭露头角。
若想知道匹克是如何发展为一家实力强大的运动鞋企业的，关键是看什么地方买不到匹克鞋。在北京、上海和广州等大城市，你很可能找不到一家匹克店。
相反，匹克正在二、三线城市乃至县城快速扩张。在这些市场，中国最大的运动鞋企业以及耐克和阿迪达斯等都不敢涉足。
匹克就像在打游击战，把大城市让给实力强大的外国竞争对手，转而专门占领内陆市场——那里的居民收入已经突破一个重要关口。这些昔日贫困地区的人们，如今有财力去度假、购买家庭音像系统和品牌鞋——而且他们也进行这类消费的意愿。
匹克目前拥有6000多家零售店，并且正以每天新开3家店面的速度扩张。相比之下，耐克和阿迪达斯在中国各拥有大约3500家店面。
匹克的目标是通过在全国各地的主要商业区率先开设运动鞋店，来获得先发优势。其它国内品牌也大多采取这一战略，并以相近的速度高速扩张。
在匹克的本土竞争对手中，最为成熟的当数李宁(Li Ning)和安踏(Anta)。来自中国动向(China Dongxiang)的竞争也越来越激烈，该公司拥有意大利运动品牌Kappa在中国的产品销售许可权。凭借非凡的增长，中国动向目前的市值高于李宁，尽 管李宁拥有更高的利润率，且市场份额是前者的两倍。
多数观察人士认为，二、三线城市市场将在5年内达到饱和。这将引发大洗牌，实力最强、结构最合理的企业将会胜出。匹克等企业相信，届时它们将做好准备、进军北京和上海这些最顶级的市场。
匹克今后不太可能转向生产品质最好、性能最佳的鞋子。匹克首席执行官许志华表示，能成为一个平价品牌已经很不错了。他问道：“你还想怎样？是生产最尖端科技的产品，还是打造利润最大的企业？我们愿作制鞋业中的丰田(Toyota)。”
本文作者是独立调查公司Fathom China总裁，该公司的业务是对中国企业和高管展开尽职调查
译者/杨远
這份長達2,200頁的調查報告，完整揭發雷曼前高階主管和Ernst & Young審計員的惡行，也讓原來已聲名狼藉的銀行業更難堪。
倫敦MF全球公司分析師莫根說，不管是哪種銀行家，給他們一寸，他們就進一尺，雷曼是進好幾尺。
其他華爾街銀行紛紛跳出來自清，聲稱他們也對雷曼操弄會計帳目的手段相當驚訝。高盛、巴克萊資本和其他銀行12日表示，未使用附買回交易（Repo），隱藏資產負債表上的債務。
倫敦金融時報駐華爾街特派記者貝爾指出，大量使用Repo 市場的多是獨立投資銀行，現在獨立的投資銀行已較少見。其他銀行表示未參與這種交易，前雷曼員工和其他接受調查者也相信，雷曼是唯一使用Repo 105交易的公司。
不過報告指出，到2007年底左右，一般「普遍相信」雷曼是唯一使用這類交易的公司，但報告引述的部分電子郵件顯示，之前可能也有其他公司進行這種交易。
雷曼調查報告還指，雷曼是華爾街上以Repo瞞天過海的機構之一，但它能在美國和歐洲找到交易對手，協助其捏造財務部位，雖然這些交易對手可能不知情，但此事實也足以讓許多觀察家寒心。
一名華爾街資深主管說：「我看了這份報告後簡直快吐出來，讓我十分厭惡這個產業。」
不過，雷曼的交易對手從來不曾質問雷曼，或懷疑和雷曼進行附買回交易時，何以能得到比傳統更優惠的條件，這也不免啟人疑竇。
調查報告點名七家雷曼交易對手，名稱在報告中大多數只用簡稱表示。報告寫道：雷曼在2007到2008年的交易對手主要是瑞穗、巴克萊、瑞士銀行 （UBS）、三菱和KBC，代表的是瑞穗金融集團、巴克萊公司（Barclays PLC）、瑞士銀行集團（UBS AG）、三菱日聯金融集團和KBC集團旗下的部門。名稱比較完整呈現的是德意志銀行集團（Deutsche Bank AG）和荷蘭銀行控股公司（ABN Amro Holding NV）。
For the party selling the security (and agreeing to repurchase it in the future) it is a repo; for the party on the other end of the transaction, (buying the security and agreeing to sell in the future) it is a reverse repurchase agreement.
Investopedia Says:
Repos are classified as a money-market instrument. They are usually used to raise short-term capital.
失败一直是市场经济最基本的组成部分。市场有效，是因为人 们在不断尝试新想法。这些想法大多都会失败。那些成功的想法又会让早先的想法失败。在美国，每年约有10%的企业消失。这幅景象有点让人难堪——但试错法 (trial and error)可能正开始获得作为一种商业技巧的公正地位，而不再是资本主义肮脏的小秘密。
有些迹象让人心怀希望。哈 佛商学院(HBS)的斯特凡•托姆克(Stefan Thomke)认为，计算机运算技术的进步使得新产品实验可能成为家常便饭。例如，现在很容易实验网站布局改变的效果，向不同访客显示不同的配置，并实时 跟踪结果。与此同时，谷歌(Google)定期发布新产品的试用版(beta)。而像《魔鬼经济学》(Freakonomics)作者之一史蒂文•莱维特 (Steven Levitt)这样的学术超级明星一直在教授商业实验方面的管理课程。
关于从错误中学习的心理学我们也开始了解的越来越 多。《轻推》(Nudge)作者之一、行为经济学家理查德•塞勒(Richard Thaler)发明了“享乐主义的加工”(hedonic editing)这个短语，用来形容我们将小损失与较大的收益放在一起以掩饰损失之痛苦的习惯行为。粉饰太平乃人之本性，但也可能导致你无法从失败中吸取 教训。塞勒和同事甚至研究了游戏节目《一掷千金》(Deal Or No Deal)中参赛选手的行为。他发现，选择失误的人接下来会开始不顾后果地冒险，这往往会让他们错上加错。
如果失败暂时夺去了我们的判断 力，我们就很难从失败中吸取教训。当我们开始理解为什么试错法是一个非常痛苦的过程时，或许就能够更加有建设性地使用这种方法。这场金融危机让我们意识 到，无法容忍一点失败的体系是危险的。一家机构“太大以致不能倒闭”的理念过去听起来很让人信服。现在不再如此。
Failure has always been a fundamental part of a market economy. When markets work, they do so because new ideas are constantly being tried out. Most fail. Those that succeed cause older ideas to fail instead. In the US, about 10 per cent of businesses disappears each year. This is an awkward insight – but trial and error could be starting to take its rightful place as a business technique, rather than the dirty little secret of capitalism.
There are some hopeful signs. Stefan Thomke of Harvard Business School has argued that advances in computation have made it possible to experiment on new products as a matter of course, trying many things and expecting many failures. It is now easy, for example, to experiment with changes in the layout of a website, showing different configurations to different visitors and tracking results in real time. Google, meanwhile, routinely launches new products with a “beta” label on them. And academic superstars such as Steven Levitt, co-author of Freakonomics, have been teaching executive courses in business experimentation.
We are also starting to learn more about the psychology of learning from mistakes. Richard Thaler, the behavioural economist behind Nudge, coined the phrase “hedonic editing” to describe our habit of lumping small losses together with larger gains in order to mask the pain of the loss. Sugar-coating is human, but it's also a recipe for failing to learn from failure. Thaler, with colleagues, even studied the behaviour of contestants on Deal or No Deal. He discovered that people who had made unlucky choices then started to take reckless risks, which often compounded the error.
It's hard to learn from failure if it briefly robs us of our judgment. As we start to understand why trial and error is so painful a process, we may be able to use it more constructively. The financial crisis has made us aware that a system that cannot tolerate a bit of failure is a dangerous one. The idea that an institution was “too big to fail” used to sound reassuring. Not any more.
Carmakers will be scrambling to meet demand for electric cars – and the lithium batteries that power them – within the next two years, Carlos Ghosn, chief executive of Renault and Nissan, has predicted.
Mr Ghosn said at the Geneva motor show yesterday that Renault and Nissan stood to profit because they would be “the only one on the market” with an electric car by 2011.
“If I had to make a bet today, I would say we're going to be very quickly in short capacity for electric cars,” Mr Ghosn said. “From everything I'm seeing, in 2011 or 2012 we're going to have to rush to build capacity for both batteries and cars.”
Renault and Nissan are between them installing enough capacity to build about 150,000 such cars in Japan, 200,000 in Europe, and more than 200,000 in the US. “We're putting the system in place – who else is doing that?” Mr Ghosn said.
The allied French and Japanese carmakers are pushing more aggressively than other big car producers into pure battery electric vehicles, despite a widespread view among their competitors and industry analysts that they will be little more than a niche product.
While Renault and Nissan say they will be the first to market electric cars in 2011, PSA Peugeot Citroën plans to launch two electric cars in Europe this year, and Mitsubishi's i-MiEV is already on the road in Japan.
雷诺-日产(Renault-Nissan)首席执行官卡洛斯•戈恩(Carlos Ghosn)预计，未来两年内，汽车制造商们将难以满足市场对电动汽车（以及为其提供动力的锂电池）的需求。
戈恩昨日在日内瓦车展上表示，雷诺和日产有望从中获益，因为到2011年时，它们将是“市场中唯一”能够提供电动汽车的厂商。
他表示：“如果我今天必须打个赌，我会说，我们会很快面对电动汽车产能不足的局面。我所看到的一切均表明，在2011年或2012年，我们将不得不拼命扩建电池和汽车的产能。”
雷诺和日产正在携手建立足够的产能，以便在日本生产约15万辆、在欧洲生产20万辆、在美国生产20多万辆电动汽车。戈恩称：“我们正在搭建生产体系，还有谁在这样做呢？”
两家结盟的法国、日本汽车制造商，正以比其它大型汽车制造商更为积极的态度进军纯电池驱动电动汽车领域，尽管其竞争对手和行业分析师普遍认为，此类汽车不过是一种利基产品。虽然雷诺和日产表示，它们将于2011年率先在市场上推出电动汽车，但标致雪铁龙(PSA Peugeot Citroën)计划今年就在欧洲推出两款电动汽车，而三菱(Mitsubishi)的i-MiEV已经行驶在日本的公路上。
译者/汪洋
