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2015年1月30日 星期五

蘋論:馬政府的逃官潮,《憲法》已經難以為繼

蘋論:馬政府的逃官潮

繼4天前國防部長嚴明去職後,國發會主委管中閔也請辭獲准,如果再加上不到一個月前,交通部長葉匡時因政策不被支持被迫去職,一個月來,馬政府陣亡了3位重要閣員。任期還有16個月的馬政府此刻湧現逃官潮,根本找不到好的繼任者,只得從文官體系或按軍隊輩分拔擢新部長,蜀中無大將,這已是個不折不扣的「廖化內閣」。
管中閔感嘆地說,從去年的學運到九合一選舉結果,是個震撼的過程,「讓我感受到群眾對現在的政府有很深的不滿與不耐」、「台灣必須做出很多的改變,應該換另一批人來做會更適合」。問題是,馬英九的任期是綁死的,國民黨在國會仍是多數,立法院不倒閣,政權無法「換軌」,要怎麼「換另一批人來做?」這政府已無官敢入也無人可用,軍心潰散更改革無望,只能勉強撐完任期,也是個「數饅頭內閣」。
這種「執政末日」景象其實並不令人陌生,陳水扁執政末期身陷特別費貪污疑雲,總統威信盡失、內閣更迭同樣宛如走馬燈,甚至出現任期僅3個月的國防部長。一位是政治機鋒不斷的陳水扁,一位是看似溫良恭儉讓的馬英九,到總統任期末都無以為繼、民心盡失,顯示這不僅僅是人出了問題,更是台灣的憲政體制出了問題。
從引進總統直選並取消國會的閣揆同意權後,台灣總統的權力幾乎已不受節制;而扁馬兩人更相繼撕毀競選期間的承諾,自兼執政黨主席,想透過黨完全操控立法院,變成一位同時身兼行政、立法大權的超級大總統,更證明政治人物對權力的渴望永遠是無底洞。 

末期內閣空轉

當「超級總統」失去民心,那可能只是個空轉的弱勢內閣;但從權力制衡的角度來看,當「超級總統」以其領袖魅力想駕馭所有憲政權力,如當年陳水扁末年試圖以衝撞中美台關係求自保,如兩年前馬英九想以黨紀撤換同屬執政黨的立法院長時,那將是毀憲的災難。
辭職的管中閔以陸游的詩自況,「此身合是詩人未,細雨騎驢入劍門」,字裡行間充滿了他在仕途上的抑鬱無力之感。
不過,馬政府的這波逃官潮,反映的可不只是政治現實或個人感懷,而是有著嚴肅的憲政意義;因為,馬扁兩任16年,顯示這部千瘡百孔的《憲法》已經難以為繼,再不正視這浮出的憲法時刻,未來將有更大的憲法災難等著台灣。 

談董事會組織 (兼論東海大學的董事會運作),兼記美國最高法院



公司的董事會的人數是有彈性的,可因時制宜。約6年前,杜邦公司的董事會才人,而分5委員會,所以每位董事兼數個委員會成員。
今天再造訪,董事會已有14人,仍分5委員會:The Board maintains five committees:

Environmental Policy
Audit
Human Resources & Compensation
Corporate Governance
Science and Technology


http://www.dupont.com/…/…/leadership/board-of-directors.html


****胡適是極資深的"中基金會"的董事,可能有40年.....



胡適慨嘆:中華民國的大法官人數遠比美國的多多 ,不合理。
美國是9人,所以2015年要裁決同性戀者是否可結婚的報導:
The nine justices are expected to hear oral arguments in April


The US Supreme Court will rule this year on whether gay couples have a right to marry across all states
In a brief order, it said it would hear cases about marriage bans upheld by an appeal in a number of states.


1958年12月10日 星期三
…….先生看見頌平,突然問起大法官的人數 (十三人) ,接著說:「這麼多的法官,除掉史尚寬一個人認識之外,其餘諸人的名字,連我也不知道。這些大法官是否當過法官?大法官是解釋憲法的,多麼重要!在美國,始終只有九位大法官,都是法學的權威。我們的人數也太多些。」
http://hushihhc.blogspot.tw/2012/04/blog-post_25.html






謹以此短文為袁祝平兄壽。他讓我有機會讀些陳敏學長的信。(陳學長的MIT模式,不見得適用他說的,排名1000名之外的東海;不過我佩服他的行動力,姑且不說後果如何.....)
2010年我出書"系統與變異",其中有章節談到董事會:談公司 (組織) 治理:董事會.... 說一些董事會的故事... 董事會的運作:
http://hcnew.blogspot.tw/2014/02/hc-2010-80-86.html
在2011.3.13,我寫封email 給沈金標兄,告訴他參加台北場的"關懷母校座談會" (董事會有3位校友兼董事參加。會議中,沈兄與江董正面衝突......)的一些感想,其中一段:
"現在東海管理團隊,從董事長到校長,可能都沒ownership ....
我很欣賞一些"放話的人" 。他們有以前的學務長等很忠懇 :
董事會要多花點錢給學校; 多了解逢甲 東吳 ....其他私立大學的奮發圖強, 超過東海。
重要表達的是:必須有董事會組織法和考績法的制定。"
2013年11月,我們在台北的"傑出校友演講會",與汪董事長有2小時的互動,之後我熱情地寫7~8篇短論。
現在的曾董事長是牧師、校友,對東海當然有ownership。他在新竹的校友會,講了類似下文的"開會密度":
"美國故國防部長Caspar Weinberg(1917-2006)退休之後,極力爭取當哈佛大學的董事。幾經周旋,董事會說,這不是個掛名的榮譽職,你有時間全程參加每兩周召開的會議嗎?他答應並做到了。[16]"
我是一開始不會對新校長有不實際的期望的,所以湯校長新任時,跟迷於新校長的沈金標兄打趣:等著瞧。
有位校友經常給湯校長寫信,後者煩了,就請巢副校長轉話。
拉雜寫些感想,希望有心人一起思考、行動。

2015年1月29日 星期四

Tesco : why did it all go so wrong? 經營艱難 ;中國啟動清查康師傅?


Tesco昔日在英國各鄉市都有賣場,如今下定決心大徹退。



Tesco: why did it all go so wrong?

A blinkered pursuit of profit has wounded Britain’s biggest supermarket group

 Tesco starts investigation into overstated profits
Tesco Extra store in Haverfordwest
 'Tesco invested heavily in large edge-of-town and out-of-town stores, which were hit by the rise of internet shopping.' Photograph: Rex Features
“There are two types of chancellor,” Gordon Brown used to joke. “Those who fail and those who get out in time.” Tesco’s former chief executive, Terry Leahy, now enjoying a lucrative career as a feted business guru, got out in time. The irony is that many of the problems now bringing the retail giant low are a legacy of the strategic decisions he made.
The latest blow to the company is the extraordinary overestimate of expected half-yearly profits – amounting to a quarter of what was expected for the period – that has seen Tesco lose about a tenth of its value, massive in City terms. It’s an unwelcome greeting for the new chief executive, Dave Lewis, who has only just taken over from Leahy’s successor, Philip Clarke. The latter left after failing to resolve the problems he inherited.
What went wrong at Britain’s biggest and most bullish retailer? The answer is no single thing, except perhaps what happens when the mystique of a seemingly impregnable empire evaporates. For years, anyone who had dealings with Tescowould come away with respect for the apparent clinical efficiency of its business model. It did the same things – in terms of treatment of suppliers, playing the planning system and in the impact it had on local economies – as the other supermarkets, but it played the game harder.
Successive reports from the Competition Commission found the company acting against the public interest in a sector that was too concentrated and had too much power to be good for a healthy retail ecosystem. But Tesco and the other supermarkets got away with it again and again, partly because of a supine regulator and partly due to sheer chutzpah. Tesco’s bristling self-confidence carried governments, regulators, investors and, for a time, the public along with it. When Tesco was taking about £1 in every £8 that British people spent shopping, Leahy once quipped that this left another £7 for the supermarket to go for. The bravado worked. Early in his term of office, Tony Blair opined that the supermarkets had their suppliers in an “armlock”, but Leahy was still given a knighthood.
Then overconfidence led to overreach. Seeing limits to its UK expansion, Tesco began spreading overseas. But as its initially confident adventure in the US foundered, so its ambitions began to recede in China and Japan too. Tesco had been the company that could do no wrong; now investors began to question whether it knew what it was doing.
The supermarket increasingly found itself in a no man’s land between the deep cost-cutters such as Aldi and Lidl and the quality brands such as Waitrose, leaving it with a weaker, less distinctive offer, while also fighting off its near rivals Sainsbury, Asda and Morrisons.
But it was worse than that. Tesco invested heavily in large edge-of-town and out-of-town stores, which were hit by the rise of internet shopping. The supermarket tried to respond by making a trip to Tesco Extra a family outing. Yoga classes, child-friendly restaurants and independent-style coffee chains were brought in to make the old uncle look groovy. But now, instead of making the weather, in business terms it was chasing patches of sun that kept receding.
The public was falling out of love with the weekly mega-shop and there was a growing awareness of the impact of big supermarkets on local economies. Unlike smaller independent and locally owned stores, supermarkets suck more spending out of an area and have a negative overall effect on jobs in the retail sector. “Clone towns” dominated by chain stores created a backlash. This is reflected both in the explosion of interest in community food-growing initiatives, craft bakers and brewers, and in the rise of so-called “transition towns” that aim to build sustainable communities.
Tesco, though wounded, remains by far the UK’s biggest retailer. But if, as a result of its travails, it is reduced in size, the market opens up to some degree and we learn the lessons of its imperial overreach, that would be good for Britain. A resilient economy needs diversity. Too much power in the hands of too few retailers is bad for everyone – farmers, producers, consumers and the businesses themselves.
When big goes bad, it hurts far more people. That’s something we learned from the banking crisis. Mistakes get magnified and the blinkered, macho pursuit of growth and profits above all else distorts the business and the economy, and can end up cannibalising the very ecosystem on which it depends. Instead of looking to return the Tesco swagger, Lewis should reflect on how empires often make their worst mistakes as they scrabble to avoid collapse. The worst could be yet to come.



中國除官方高層。都不知道什麼滅頂計畫。

【壹週刊】滅頂延燒對岸 中國啟動清查康師傅
頂新黑心油的嚴重程度,已讓大陸官方起戒心。位於天津市的頂新康師傅總部,近來連續遭到天津濱海新區食品藥品監管局檢查,甚至對產品原料進行取樣調查。本刊記者上週實地採訪,都感受到一股肅殺之氣。隨時可能引爆康師傅新的危機。為拯救大陸市場,頂新緊急收回台灣味全使用康師傅商標權,企圖切割。另方面,台灣高檢署統合13路地檢署查緝,再獲重大進展。檢方在搜索魏家帝寶豪宅時,查扣魏應充長子魏志明的2本筆記本,內容詳載最近如何密集跟著父親處理黑心油品問題,顯示魏應充早就知情,鐵證如山。

Baptism of fire for Dave Lewis at Tesco
If Dave Lewis was not considering radical action when he began in his role as chief executive officer (CEO) of Tesco in September, then he certainly will be now. The company's sales fell by 4.4% in the first six months of the year, down to £34bn (US$54.4bn).
The retailer also saw declines around the world, not just in the UK market. Asian and European sales fell by 8.4% and 9.3% respectively, although both were affected by currency headwinds. This fed through to a 92% fall in statutory pre-tax profit, to just £112m >>http://bit.ly/10uT02Y
*****
Tesco store in Cambridge 'on verge of receiving 'asbo' from City Council'








Councillors are deliberating over whether to impose a community protection notice on the supermarket after it failed to clear litter when repeatedly asked
NATASHA CULZAC

Sunday 26 October 2014

A Tesco store in Cambridge is close to being slapped with a community protection notice (CPN) – formerly an Asbo – after it reportedly riled the council for not clearing litter in a fence.
The superstore on Newmarket Road was accused by a councillor of continually ignoring requests to clear up the rubbish that had accrued on its grounds.
According to Cambridge News, in a council meeting this week Peter Roberts, Cambridge City Council’s Executive Councillor for Waste, Environment & Public Health, told attendees: “We are potentially pursuing a community protection notice against Tesco.
“Tesco in Abbey has had a new fence and it’s basically just rammed with rubbish. We’ve asked several times they clean their ground as part of the agreement they have with us as the city authority and they continually, despite their claims otherwise, carry on just leaving it.”
Tesco has been contacted by The Independent for comment.
Community protection notices are a re-branding of the previous anti-social behaviour orders (abos), giving local authorities, police and social landlords the power to issue orders to curb behaviour that negatively affects the community.
Government officials say the changes have “streamlined” the application process, and while a civil issue, if the orders are breached they can result in a two-year prison sentence for adult individual or a £20,000 fine or businesses. These measures also affect the owners of nuisance or vicious dogs.
Cllr George Owers added in the meeting: “Tesco, to me, are the only organisation or business in Cambridge who persistently allow this to happen on their grounds and never clean it up.
“I hope the expanded enforcement team will look at using their increased resources to talk more to businesses, all kinds of businesses where we have similar problems, and if they persistently ignore us, use this power more widely than just Tesco.”
A Tesco spokesman told the newspaper: “We are working closely with the city council to tidy up the site.
“Contractors will be visiting the site shortly to undertake the necessary works and we will continue to monitor the situation on an ongoing basis.”

2015年1月28日 星期三

柯P失言道歉、文化水平;要幕僚走人:選前花費暴增

現在多查Wikipedia 等就沒事。英國東西很多變,官銜等當然包括在內。我認為柯市長的失言已道歉過,就可息事。http://en.wikipedia.org/....../Secretary_of_State_for......

文化水平是相對的。某些人士自以為他們行 (英語、文化等等),其實是五十步笑百步而已。

2011年的筆記, 此條Memento mori為西方藝術史的基本知識。 約百多人讀過:http://hccart.blogspot.tw/2011/03/memento-mori.html



******

選前花費暴增 柯P要幕僚走人

劉尹絜 2015年01月28日


台北市長柯文哲昨(27)日接受鄭弘儀廣播節目專訪時,爆出這次九合一選舉經費共花了1億3000萬元,選前1個月,柯文哲競選總花費多出至少5000萬元!今天出刊的《壹週刊》報導讓柯P最不滿的,是花了800萬元的「萬人健走活動」,活動在柯文哲不知情的情況下,被轉包給早已被柯列入黑名單的卡神楊蕙如,柯P競選團隊活動部副主任董德堉甚至因此被炒魷魚。

柯P在廣播專訪中表示,選舉前1個月花費不小心失控,因為光是1支選舉廣告在電視上播出5天,就要花掉1100萬元,他直呼「選舉驚死人!」他也表示身邊有許多「政治蟑螂」,而《壹週刊》也調查指出,柯陣營光是黃金周2場大型活動就燒掉近4000萬,其中愛與擁抱大遊行就燒了3000萬。

《壹週刊》報導,柯文哲競選團隊軍機處成員邱昱凱和洪智坤主張嚴查過高的花費,開始將重要的幕僚一一叫來對帳。其中,讓柯P最不爽的,是「萬人健走大遊行」。柯文哲原本以為,萬人健走活動是透過體壇大老紀政委託給棒球名將趙士強承辦,後來卻變成楊蕙如旗下的公司承包,柯完全不知道。柯文哲本來就對活動層層轉包相當不滿,而董德堉又是發包給黑名單中的楊蕙如,加上楊在這場活動中,還用柯文哲的名義向文山區綠營的金主募款200萬元,更是讓柯文哲不爽到極點。

柯文哲找來曾是高志鵬助理、柯P辦公室初期成員,學運時擔任物資總管的董德堉來當面理論,痛罵董「我說過永不錄用的人,你還敢用?」、「你當我白癡嗎?」罵完隨即叫董德堉捲舖蓋走路,董也成為核心幕僚中任職時間最短的成員。

楊蕙如臉書發文自清

對於《壹週刊》的報導,楊蕙如今天在臉書上發文澄清,表示活動明細在活動結束後的1周內就已經公開上網,活動籌辦過程,她本人也先墊付了300-400萬元不等的款項。針對向綠營金主募款,她解釋,是合辧活動的文山體育會會長、民進黨台北市黨部主委黃承國協助周轉200萬元,活動結束後收到報名費結帳尾款的就立即存入款項,黃也很快地就以支票取回代墊款。

2015年1月26日 星期一

蘋論:嘴裡淡出X來;柯P九把刀(江春男)

司馬觀點:柯P九把刀(江春男)

 

柯市長快人快語,有問必答,讓記者站著問到飽。他所到之處,餐廳有生意,候選人有人氣,電視有收視率,網路有點閱率。他出口成章,不是標題,就是話題。在台灣,你逃不了柯P,他鋪天蓋地而來,無所不在
他善用民氣,以高姿態對付財團,尤其對趙藤雄和郭台銘,幫無數人出了一口鳥氣。他的高人氣,讓政客為之興嘆,不過,捧得越高,摔得越重。柯P塑造了自己的傳奇,但蜜月期很快就過去,他即將面對議會和各方面的挑戰。
其實,他對許多問題草率發言,例如,他對社子島開發案就變來變去,一下說怎麼開發都可以,就是不要拖了。一下說,乾脆每人發300萬,不要開發了。一下又改口要加速開發。
最近,西門町殺人案破案,他先怪警方破案太慢,知道嫌犯是誰,還要等兩天,沒有道理。接著他主張,為了提高辦案效率,未來警方調閱通聯監聽紀錄,可採先斬後奏的登記制。這些話,引起司法界和人權團體一陣譁然。
戒嚴時期監聽氾濫,任意搜索,人權缺乏保障,多少人流血流淚換來程序保障,把權力關在籠子裡,柯P對此似乎無所感,他大開人權法治的倒車,而不自知。
柯P移植急重症醫療過程的SOP,轉來台北開門診,他的決定果斷迅速,痛快淋漓,一掃官場習氣,令人激賞,許多人驚為神人,但是,我們必須撥開迷霧,嘗試了解他的理念和價值觀。 

有別傳統官僚文化

他強調透明、公開、效率、迅速、紀律、秩序和積極管理,他不應酬,公事公辦,這些都是正能量,有別於傳統官僚文化,令人耳目一新。但是,基本上這是現代化的保守價值,有人稱之為新加坡式的治理模式。
做一個首都市長,這樣也許夠了,但要帶領社會和國家往前走,顯然是不足的。 

蘋論:嘴裡淡出X來

柯文哲市長打斷政商鎖鏈基本靠兩個手段:透明化和公事在辦公室辦。習近平肅貪靠全民檢舉和加薪養廉。有人認為兩岸同時肅貪,互相加油打氣,是樁美事。
台灣柯式的肅貪與中國式肅貪並不一樣。柯沒有掌管全國的權力,他對貪污結構最有力的打擊就是透明化。政府與財團的關係是姦宿關係,見不得人,只能在暗處偷偷進行。柯規定以後市府和企業界的交涉一律不准在餐廳吃喝;只能在市府內談。少了喝花酒,貪腐情況立馬好轉。可憐的是習慣吃喝辦事的公務員和奸商這下像出家當和尚,嘴裡淡出鳥來(《水滸傳》用語)。同樣的中國也禁止公費吃喝,豪華大餐館都叫苦連天。
柯式肅貪最厲害的招式就是透明化。不管什麼事,一概上網公開,任何人可以上去查閱,公務員不敢偷雞摸狗了。奸商還是可以在夜黑風高的夜裡私下塞錢給官員,除了張友驊沒人知道,但官員們不敢公然圖利奸商,就算圖利也因為透明而不敢太過分。對遏止貪風很有效能。
如果立委們願意放棄發財的機會,修兩款法律,台灣政風一定更清潔:一是在財產來源不明罪中修訂成只要不明來源毋須有對價關係,即可判刑,新加坡、香港就是。這樣才真正對貪污具有嚇阻力。二是立法規定政府任何動作都要上網公開,包括與民間訂立的契約等。對價關係是貪官奸商最好的盾牌,也是立委們打死不肯修法的原因,不要擋別人和自己的財路嘛。
民主社會有定期選舉,可以汰舊換新,貪污受到任期制的制約。中國肅貪可以選擇性針對,而且由於政府掌控和分配所有資源,貪官的規模會很大,而且悍不畏死,就算加薪百倍也擋不住貪婪之心。 

光靠聖君無法長久

明太祖朱元璋肅貪最厲害,把貪官處死後剝下人皮放在衙門口,以警惕官員。有用嗎?當然沒有。肅貪必須從體制著手,獨立司法的法治尤其重要。光等待聖君賢相抓貪官是靠不住的,人亡政息,無法長久。最糟的是中國政府完全不透明,垂簾重重密遮燈,怕人家看到他們的醜態。這麼神祕渾濁的政府,怎可能制度化地肅貪?這就是為什麼台灣肅貪就想到立法、修法;而中國肅貪就想到習近平這個人的原因。 

2015年1月24日 星期六

麥當勞危機轉機:food contamination (Japan); breakfast: free coffee/ More ‘Lovin’/ McDonald’s and Taco Bell v Shake Shack and Five Guys

2014 may have been McDonald's worst year in 3 decades.
If McDonald's franchisees have their way, some coffees, wraps, and...
TI.ME





From Espresso: McDonald’s, the world’s biggest fast-food chain, is likely to say today that its global “like-for-like” sales (ie, ignoring new outlets) fell in 2014, the first annual decline since 2002. Its biggest problem is its home market, America, where it has 14,200 of its 35,000 mostly franchised restaurants. Americans flocked to McDonald’s during the recession, but in the past couple of years they have gone elsewhere—to Burger King, its revitalised rival, or upmarket “fast casual” joints. Many seem confused by the menu, with almost 200 items, and put off by frozen “factory” food packed with preservatives. (Some are also appalled by the way the fast-food business treats its workers.) McDonald’s is trying to win customers back. It simplified its menu this month and is introducing fancier bespoke burgers in up to 2,000 restaurants this year. But it may take much more to restore diners’ appetites http://econ.st/1CVXH2W



McDonald’s restaurants stand among American capitalism’s greatest success stories. But now McDonald’s has lost its sizzle. Global sales have been declining since at least last July. When the company announces its annual results on January 23rd, analysts think it will reveal its first full-year fall in like-for-like revenues since 2002. The Economist explains why McDonald's sales are fallinghttp://econ.st/1C4cb24

MCDONALD’S restaurants stand among American capitalism’s greatest success stories. Starting out with just one burger stall in 1948, the fast-food chain’s...
ECON.ST





McDonald's "brand transformation" will include new advertising, new uniforms, packaging, and signage



McDonald’s turnaround plan echoes ideas implemented in 1997 in response to a sales slump
BUSINESSWEEK.COM|由 VENESSA WONG 上傳



After a long run of success, McDonald’s, the world’s largest fast-food chain, is floundering—and activist investors are circlinghttp://econ.st/1xZnRk6



IN A brand-new McDonald’s outlet near its headquarters in Oak Brook, Illinois, customers do not have to queue at the counter. They can go to a touch screen and...
ECON.TRIB.AL

The operator of the McDonald’s in Japan reports four cases of food contamination, including a tooth that was found inside a pack of fries sold in Osaka in August.


McDonald’s Japan disclosed four cases of contaminated food, including a human tooth found in a pack of french fries, fueling already-heightened concerns after its Chinese supplier was reported to have sold expired...
WSJ.COM|由 MEGUMI FUJIKAWA 上傳




McDonald's misses you at breakfast. So it's testing a new promotion -- free coffee.


The fast food breakfast wars are alive and well, and McDonald's is on the...
WASHINGTONPOST.COM

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這篇作者沒弄清楚:市場區隔很多樣。
McDonald’s 是世界級的規模,而且不斷設法差異化,他著眼是大眾,不是文中說的,1%的頂層收入層。
由於我住在台北某大McDonald’s樓上,對它有些觀察。
漢堡的牛肉種類至少有2種,一種是所謂的mince 處理過的"雙牛堡"等--它與一杯飲料賣50元,我認為價格合理。
新生南路3段的McDonald’s,近日有些市場區隔:將冷、熱飲料和蛋糕等另設專櫃,員工制服也不一樣。起初我弄不清潔營業目的,後來才知道主打"下午茶"等.....很值得觀察。



 Why the young are leaving McDonald’s and Taco Bell for burger brands such as Shake Shack and Five Guys. Which do you prefer?



This is a tale of two hamburgers. One is in decline and the other is...
ON.FT.COM



January 1, 2015 5:12 pm
McDonald’s all-American menu is shaken by the Shack
Millennials regard McDonald’s as unhealthy, outdated and downmarket
T
his is a tale of two hamburgers. One is in decline and the other is growing. One is a symbol of the US and how it exported fast food to the world. The other is a playful New York City contender, marketed as a healthier, tastier alternative. One is the Big Mac, the other is the ShackBurger.
The Big Mac sells for $4.80, contains 530 calories, and is a familiar pile of mass-produced beef, processed cheese, pickles and bun. A double ShackBurger is “100 per cent all-natural Angus beef. No hormones and no antibiotics ever”, on a potato roll, contains 770 calories and costs $7.99 at the Shake Shack in Madison Square Park.
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Which would you prefer?
To judge by the differing fortunes of McDonald’s, which is trying to simplify its overstuffed menu to halt a fall in sales and profits, and Shake Shack, the gourmet burger chain founded by the chef Danny Meyer, which this week filed for an initial public offering, the answer is: the ShackBurger.
Here is another question. Which company is closer to McDonald’s, the self-service stand opened in 1948 in San Bernardino, California by Dick and Mac McDonald, with nine items including a 15-cent hamburger? Is it McDonald’s or Shake Shack, which its IPO filing dubs “a ‘roadside’ burger stand serving a classic American menu of premium burgers, hot dogs, crinkle-cut fries, shakes, frozen custard, beer and wine”?
Perhaps the wine is a giveaway — evidence that Shake Shack is a hipster pastiche, favoured by urban millennials who want their organic beef served with a side of nostalgia, and not a real fast- food joint. Surely McDonald’s, where a Big Mac is relatively expensive and Dollar Menu items such as the Bacon McDouble play the role of the old 15-cent hamburger, is the successor?
But the McDonald brothers served beef without hormones and milkshakes with sugar, not corn syrup. California was fairly natural in 1948. US farm animals were not fed antibiotics until 1951 and beef cattle were not given growth hormones until 1954. The mass use of high fructose corn syrup did not start until the mid-1960s.
What about the price? Fifteen cents is equivalent to $1.47 at today’s prices, closer to the Dollar Menu than either the Big Mac or the ShackBurger. But the US is richer than in 1948 — its gross domestic product per head in 2013 was 3.6 times higher. This suggests the average US consumer can afford $5.29 today as easily as 15 cents in 1948. A single ShackBurger costs $5.19.
Rising disposable income, especially among the well paid and educated, has unleashed a challenge to McDonald’s and other “Quick Service Restaurants” from “fast casual” chains such as Chipotle Mexican GrillPanera Bread and Noodles & Company. They offer lighter, healthier varieties of food (although a Chipotle burrito often has more calories than a Big Mac).
Rising disposable income, especially among the well paid and educated, has unleashed a challenge ’Quick Service Restaurants’
The young are leaving McDonald’s and Taco Bell for such outlets, and for burger brands such as Shake Shack and Five Guys. They prefer the food, they can afford the prices and they regard McDonald’s as unhealthy, outdated, downmarket and not a nice place to be. In its IPO filing, Shake Shack calls itself “fine casual”, deliberately placing itself at the top of the market.
American fast food is being disrupted from on high, unlike other cases of “disruptive innovation” identified by Clayton Christensen, the Harvard professor. Instead of technology or new business methods allowing entrants to undermine incumbents with cheaper products, McDonald’s has a grip on the mass market but is losing the top.
Your opinion

Which do you prefer?
McDonald’s has long struggled with growing complexity, also known as rising inequality. The McDonald’s stand in 1948 — and the franchises later spread across the US by Ray Kroc — were selling to a broad, uniform market. But the top 1 per cent’s share of income in the US has risen rose from 11 per cent in 1948 to 19 per cent in 2012. Selling one menu to one society is much harder.
Its response has been steadily to add more items to the menu to cover all the bases. The nine items of 1948 have expanded to 121, including 14 desserts and shakes, and 29 kinds of chicken and fish wraps and sandwiches. Its mission statement does not even mention hamburgers. Small wonder that its customers are confused.
It is a very big business, with 35,000 outlets in more than 100 countries and annual revenues of $28bn. Shake Shack is tiny, with 63 Shacks and $82m of sales in 2013. But the upstart sells a lot of ShackBurgers — the average US Shack pulls in $5m a year, twice the revenue of the average US McDonald’s outlet, and is more profitable.
Which would you prefer?


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McDonald’s Latest Recipe to Reverse Declining Sales: More ‘Lovin’

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